Suuma's Takeaways from Week 7
By: Suuma, NFL Originator
1. Is the 49ers’ Run Game Back?
Heading into Week 7, San Francisco looked nothing like the run-heavy machine Kyle Shanahan built his identity on. With Christian McCaffrey bottled up behind a slightly injured offensive line, the 49ers ranked 23rd in rushing success rate, 27th in EPA per rush, and averaged just under three yards per carry — second-worst in the league. They couldn’t run between the tackles, and Shanahan leaned pass-first because he had to.
Then came Week 7 against Atlanta. Yes, the Falcons’ defense is soft against the run — especially against heavy personnel — but the 49ers’ ground game finally looked like itself again. The difference might have been George Kittle, who returned to full strength. He was invisible in the box score as a receiver but dominant as a blocker. Per Next Gen Stats:
-Kittle on-field: 28 carries, 151 yards, 2 TDs, 1.4 yards before contact
-Kittle off-field: 6 carries, 12 yards, –2.1 yards before contact
That’s the kind of split that changes an offense. Suddenly, San Francisco could run between the tackles again. Whether that’s purely Kittle’s impact or Shanahan adding new wrinkles, we’ll find out soon. With Jauan Jennings recovering from broken ribs, Kittle back, Ricky Pearsall possibly returning, and Brock Purdy nearing a comeback, the 49ers’ offense may finally have its full complement of pieces again. Mac Jones has held things together admirably, but Purdy’s deep-ball touch gives them another gear.
2. The Packers Feel… Weird
Green Bay is 4-1-1, but you wouldn’t know it from how little anyone’s talking about them. They nearly let Cincinnati back into the game and had to survive late to beat Arizona, 27–23. Still — the underlying metrics say something different: this might be a legitimately scary team.
Despite missing WR1 Christian Watson, WR3 Jayden Reed, and a clearly hobbled RT Zach Tom, the Packers’ offense ranks 3rd in EPA/play and 3rd in success rate — just behind the Colts. They entered Week 7 10th in DVOA. On tape, it looks like a grind; on paper, it’s elite efficiency.
It’s hard to reconcile how a unit that feels clunky is producing this well, but maybe that’s the point — the infrastructure works. Once Watson and Reed return (The former possibly as early as Week 8) and the defensive line gets healthier, the Packers could quietly morph into a top-tier team that also looks like that through 60 minutes. The data says they’re already close.
3. The Bears Are a Paper Tiger
Chicago is 4-2, the vibes are good, and yet nothing about this team adds up statistically. The Bears rank 24th in overall success rate and 28th on dropbacks — worse than the New York Jets. And yet, they sit 21st in EPA/play, surviving on a handful of explosive plays.
Defensively, it’s the same story in reverse. They rank 27th in success rate, but 10th in EPA/play thanks to game-changing turnovers. Over their last four games, the Bears are +13 in turnover margin, with four straight games at +3 or better — the best such stretch in 25 years (per @ClevTA).
That’s not sustainable. They’re living off defensive takeaways and offensive luck. Caleb Williams nearly threw a pick-six on the opening drive against New Orleans, and his inaccurate play is holding the offense back. Their recent improvement is almost entirely due to better rushing efficiency, not anything happening through the air.
This week’s matchup with Baltimore — a mostly healthy Ravens team — could expose those flaws. Don’t be surprised if Chicago’s 4-2 start looks like smoke and mirrors once the final whistle blows in Baltimore.
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Rob and George's Early Leans for Week 8
Rob:
Carolina +7.5 vs. Buffalo
Dallas/Denver Over 48.5 (-105)
Green Bay/Pittsburgh Over 43.5 (-115)
George:
Green Bay -3 vs. Pittsburgh
Both:
NY Giants/Philadelphia Over 42.5 (-115)
Tennessee/Indianapolis Over 45.5
To watch their game by game analysis of Week 8 Click Here:
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Injuries We are Watching for Week 8
*Note for teams returning from bye, the list is made up of the injuries they had going into the bye week.
Arizona (Bye Week) - QB Kyler Murray (Injured Inactive), DT Walter Nolen III (Working back from I.R.)
Atlanta - EDGE Jalon Walker (Injured Inactive), LB Divine Deablo (Left Game)
Baltimore (Return from Bye) - QB Lamar Jackson, OT Ronnie Stanley, LB Roquan Smith, CB Chidobe Awuzie, FB Patrick Ricard
Buffalo (Return from Bye) - LB Matt Milano, LB Terrel Bernard, DT DaQuan Jones, TE Dalton Kincaid, WR Josh Palmer
Carolina - QB Bryce Young (Left Game), OG Damien Lewis (Injured Inactive)
Chicago - DT Grady Jarrett (Injured Inactive), LB Noah Sewell (Injured Inactive), K Cairo Santos (Injured Inactive), TE Cole Kmet (Left Game), CB Tyrique Stevenson (Left Game)
Cincinnati - EDGE Trey Hendrickson (Injured Inactive), CB Cam Taylor-Britt (Healthy Scratch), TE Tanner Hudson (Injured Inactive)
Cleveland - OT Jack Conklin (Injured Inactive), TE David Njoku (Injured Inactive)
Dallas - CB Trevon Diggs (Injured Inactive), S Juanyeh Thomas (Injured Inactive), EDGE Marshawn Kneeland (Injured Inactive), DT Kenny Clark (Left Game)
Denver - EDGE Jonah Elliss (Injured Inactive), S Brandon Jones (Left Game)
Detroit - TBD (Playing Tonight)
Green Bay - DT Devonte Wyatt (Injured Inactive), EDGE Lukas Van Ness (Injured Inactive), K Brandon McManus (Injured Inactive), WR Dontayvion Wicks (Left Game), WR Christian Watson (Working back from I.R.)
Houston - TBD (Playing Tonight)
Indianapolis - WR Josh Downs (Injured Inactive), WR Ashton Dulin (Injured Inactive), EDGE Tyquan Lewis (Left Game), EDGE Samson Ebukam (Left Game)
Jacksonville (Bye Week) - LB Devin Lloyd (Injured Inactive), WR Brian Thomas Jr. (Banged Up), S Eric Murray (Left Game)
Kansas City - OT Josh Simmons (Personal), OG Trey Smith (Left Game), OT Jawaan Taylor (Left Game)
Las Vegas (Bye Week) - TE Brock Bowers (Injured Inactive), WR Jakobi Myers (Injured Inactive), EDGE Maxx Crosby (Left Game), DT Adam Butler (Left Game)
L.A Chargers - OT Joe Alt (Injured Inactive), OT Trey Pipkins (Injured Inactive), LB Troy Dye (Injured Inactive)
L.A Rams (Bye Week) - WR Puka Nacua (Injured Inactive), OT Rob Havenstein (Injured Inactive)
Miami - CB Storm Duck (Injured Inactive), TE Darren Waller (Left Game)
Minnesota - QB J.J. McCarthy (Injured Inactive), EDGE Andrew Van Ginkel (Injured Inactive)
New England - S Jaylinn Hawkins (Injured Inactive)
New Orleans - CB Isaac Yiadom (Injured Inactive), C Erik McCoy (Left Game), RB Kendre Miller (Left Game)
New York Giants - C John Michael Schmitz (Injured Inactive), WR Darius Slayton (Injured Inactive), EDGE Brian Burns (Walking Boot/Precautionary), CB Paulson Adebo (Left Game), S Jevon Holland (Left Game)
New York Jets - WR Garrett Wilson (Injured Inactive), CB Sauce Gardner (Left Game), CB Michael Carter II (Injured Inactive)
Philadelphia - C Cam Jurgens (Left Game), CB Adoree' Jackson (Left Game), DT Moro Ojomo (Left Game)
Pittsburgh - WR Calvin Austin III (Injured Inactive)
San Francisco - QB Brock Purdy (Injured Inactive), WR Ricky Pearsall (Injured Inactive), EDGE Yetur Gross-Matos (Injured Inactive), C Jake Brendel (Left Game), CB Renardo Green (Left Game)
Seattle - TBD (Playing Tonight)
Tampa Bay - TBD (Playing Tonight)
Tennessee - WR Calvin Ridley (Injured Inactive), EDGE Arden Key (Injured Inactive), EDGE Dre'Mont Jones (Banged Up), DT Jeffery Simmons (Left Game), CB L'Jarius Sneed (Left Game)
Washington - QB Jayden Daniels (Left Game/MRI), WR Terry McLaurin (Injured Inactive), WR Deebo Samuel Sr. (Injured Inactive), EDGE Dorance Armstrong (Left Game)
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