The Hammer Monday Week 8/9 - Takeaways, Injuries and Early Leans

Suuma's Takeaways from Week 8
By: Suuma, NFL Originator

1. The Bears Are in Trouble

The shine has worn off quickly. Since Week 3, Chicago has faced five bottom-half passing defenses — and still can’t move the ball efficiently through the air. Over that stretch, Caleb Williams ranks 28th in dropback success rate and 15th in EPA/play. Ben Johnson is still scheming up explosives, but down-to-down this passing game is one of the least consistent in football.

The eye test only reinforces it. Williams struggles to process quickly and play within structure. When the read is there, he doesn’t pull the trigger — the complete opposite of Jared Goff, who would fire on every schemed-open route in this offense. On top of that, the accuracy has fallen apart. According to Next Gen Stats, Williams ranks dead last in completion percentage over expectation.

It’s not just a sophomore learning curve — it’s a quarterback still trying to play backyard football in a system that demands precision and rhythm. The Bears’ schedule gave them a cushion early, but that cover is gone.

2. Pump the Brakes on the Texans Offense

The Texans’ 26–15 win over San Francisco looked convincing in real time. Every RedZone switch seemed to show C.J. Stroud marching the offense down the field. He finished with 0.51 EPA/play and a 56% success rate on dropbacks — elite efficiency. But a closer look tells a different story.

Houston’s offensive line gave Stroud all day. San Francisco, gutted by injuries, generated virtually no pressure. On early downs, the Texans were merely average — 0.05 EPA/play and 41% success — but on third and fourth down, they caught fire: 1.08 EPA/play in high-leverage spots. That kind of late-down dominance is not sustainable, especially when it comes against a defense missing its entire pass rush.

The Texans are also leaning too heavily on Nick Chubb, who looks every bit of his age. Until they find a more balanced early-down identity, this offense will keep swinging between explosive drives (against worse defenses) and empty possessions. Don’t let one game fool you — they took advantage of a perfect matchup.

3. The Falcons Are on Fraud Alert

It’s getting hard to square Atlanta’s résumé. The same team that handled Buffalo looked completely lifeless in blowout losses to the Panthers (0–30) and Dolphins (10–34). Against the 49ers’ injury-depleted defense, the offense did next to nothing.

If you want to be taken seriously as a playoff contender, you can’t swing this wildly week to week — especially not when your low points come against bad defenses. Right now, Atlanta looks less like a sleeper and more like a team pretending to be one.

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Rob and Clive's Early Leans for Week 9

Rob:
Nothing

Clive:
Nothing

Both:
Chicago/Cincinnati Over 51.5 (-110)
San Francisco/NY Giants Over 46.5 (-110)

To watch their game by game analysis of Week 9 Click Here: 

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Injuries We are Watching for Week 9
*Note for teams returning from bye, the list is made up of the injuries they had going into the bye week.

Arizona (Return from Bye) - QB Kyler Murray, DT Walter Nolen III (Working back from I.R.)
Atlanta - QB Michael Penix Jr. (Injured Inactive), WR Drake London (Injured Inactive), EDGE Jalon Walker (Injured Inactive), S Jessie Bates III (Left Game), CB Billy Bowman Jr. (Injured Inactive)
Baltimore - QB Lamar Jackson (Injured Inactive)
Buffalo - LB Matt Milano (Injured Inactive), LB Terrel Bernard (Active/Emergency), DT Ed Oliver (Long Term), DT DaQuan Jones (Injured Inactive), WR Josh Palmer (Injured Inactive)
Carolina - QB Bryce Young (Injured Inactive), DT Derrick Brown (Left Game), OT Taylor Moton (Left Game), OG Brady Christensen (Season Over), C Cade Mays (Left Game)
Chicago - CB Tyrique Stevenson (Injured Inactive), TE Cole Kmet (Injured Inactive), WR Luther Burden III (Left Game)
Cincinnati - EDGE Trey Hendrickson (Left Game), EDGE Cam Sample (Injured Inactive), QB Joe Flacco (Banged Up)
Cleveland (Bye Week) - QB Shedeur Sanders (Injured Inactive), RB Quinshon Judkins (Left Game), TE Harold Fannin Jr. (Left Game), CB Tyson Campbell (Left Game), LB Carson Schwesinger (High-Ankle Sprain)
Dallas - S Donovan Wilson (Injured Inactive), S Juanyeh Thomas (Injured Inactive), LB Jack Sanborn (Injured Inactive), C Cooper Beebe (Working back from I.R.), LB DeMarvion Overshown (Working back from I.R.) 
Denver - CB Patrick Surtain II (Left Game), WR Marvin Mims (Left Game)
Detroit (Return from Bye) - CB Terrion Arnold, CB Avonte Maddox, S Kerby Joseph
Green Bay - OT Rasheed Walker (Banged Up), EDGE Lukas Van Ness (Injured Inactive), WR Dontayvion Wicks (Injured Inactive)
Houston - WR Nico Collins (Injured Inactive), WR Christian Kirk (Injured Inactive), TE Dalton Schultz (Banged Up)
Indianapolis - EDGE Samson Ebukam (Injured Inactive), EDGE Tyquan Lewis (Injured Inactive), CB Jaylon Jones (Working back from I.R.)
Jacksonville (Return from Bye) - LB Devin Lloyd, WR Brian Thomas Jr., S Eric Murray 
Kansas City - TBD (Playing Tonight)
Las Vegas (Return from Bye) - TE Brock Bowers, WR Jakobi Myers, EDGE Maxx Crosby, DT Adam Butler
L.A Chargers - S Derwin James Jr. (Left Game), S Tony Jefferson (Left Game), CB Tarheeb Still (2-4 Weeks) OG Mekhi Becton (Left Game), RB Hassan Haskins (Injured Inactive)
L.A Rams (Return from Bye) - WR Puka Nacua, OT Rob Havenstein
Miami - S Minkah Fitzpatrick (Left Game), S Ashtyn Davis (Left Game), CB Storm Duck (Left Game)
Minnesota - QB J.J. McCarthy (Injured Inactive), QB Carson Wentz (Banged Up), OT Brian O'Neill (Injured Inactive), OT Christian Darrisaw (Left Game), EDGE Andrew Van Ginkel (Injured Inactive), CB Jeff Okudah (Left Game), TE Josh Oliver (Left Game), FB C.J. Ham (Injured Inactive)
New England - S Kyle Dugger (Injured Inactive)
New Orleans - RB Alvin Kamara (Banged Up), WR Rashid Shaheed (Banged Up)
New York Giants - RB Cam Skattebo (Season Over), CB Paulson Adebo (Injured Inactive), CB Cordale Flott (Left Game), S Jevon Holland (Injured Inactive), TE Daniel Bellinger (Left Game)
New York Jets (Bye Week) - WR Garrett Wilson (Injured Inactive), CB Sauce Gardner (Injured Inactive), QB Tyrod Taylor (Injured Inactive), S Andre Cisco (Left Game)
Philadelphia (Bye Week) - WR A.J. Brown (Injured Inactive), RB Saquon Barkley (Left Game), C Cam Jurgens (Injured Inactive), EDGE Azeez Ojulari (Injured Inactive), CB Adoree' Jackson (Injured Inactive), CB Jakorian Bennett (Working back from I.R.)
Pittsburgh - TE Pat Freiermuth (Left Game), OG Isaac Seumalo  (Left Game), S DeShon Elliott (Left Game)
San Francisco - QB Brock Purdy (Injured Inactive), WR Ricky Pearsall (Injured Inactive), EDGE Bryce Huff (Injured Inactive), EDGE Yetur Gross-Matos (Injured Inactive), DT Jordan Elliott (Left Game), DT Alfred Collins (Banged Up), LB Dee Winters (Left Game), C Jake Brendel (Injured Inactive), OT Spencer Burford (Working back from I.R.)
Seattle (Return from Bye) - CB Devon Witherspoon, S Julian Love, EDGE Derick Hall
Tampa Bay (Bye Week) - WR Chris Godwin Jr. (Injured Inactive), RB Bucky Irving (Injured Inactive), OG Luke Haggard (Injured Inactive), EDGE Haason Reddick (Injured Inactive)
Tennessee - WR Calvin Ridley (Injured Inactive), EDGE Arden Key (Injured Inactive), DT Jeffery Simmons (Injured Inactive), S Amani Hooker (Left Game), CB Darrell Baker Jr. (Left Game)
Washington - TBD (Playing Tonight)


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Expected Goals, Actual Opinions: Thoughts from around the NHL
By: Alex Moretto, Director of Content at the Hammer Betting Network

I read a lot. Always have.

Growing up, the sports section came to school with me every day. We had subscriptions to two local Toronto newspapers, a few U.S.-based weeklies, Sports Illustrated, Sports Illustrated for Kids, Viking Report, Les Canadiens, World Soccer, and more I’ve since forgotten. It’s why, even though nothing good comes these days, I still get weirdly every time I check the mail. I’m not sure I’ll ever shake the feeling eight-year-old me used to get in those moments.

I studied journalism in college and wrote for countless publications over the years before arriving at The Hammer. Don’t get me wrong, I love the nature of our content, but nothing will ever trump the written word. It’s versatile and lasting. Emotive and intimate. Soft, but powerful. People don’t read enough anymore. People don’t write enough. I’m guilty of it, too, and it’s time I got back to it.

The purpose of this column is self-serving. I want to get back to writing, and I like to share my opinions. It does little good to keep them to myself. Sure, I hope everyone reading can find some value in it, but this is essentially my hockey journal – a place to jot down whatever thoughts and observations are on my mind. It’ll be modelled after two of my favorite all-time columns: Peter King’s “10 Things I Think I Think” and Elliotte Friedman’s “32 Thoughts.” It’s meant to be casual and conversational and emotional and unfiltered. The thoughts will be wide-ranging. They will be impulsive and indulgent, but honest and deliberate. I hope some might be insightful.

All that being said, let’s get into it. The first ever Expected Goals, Actual Opinions*.

*title subject to change based on whether I decide I actually hate it. Embarrassed to say how many I workshopped before settling here, largely out of defeat and exhaustion. Feedback welcome. Find me in the NHL channel on the Hammer Discord, on X, or email me at [email protected].

1.) I feel obliged to start with the Calder Trophy after calling Ivan Demidov a RORT before the season. As great as Matthew Schaefer has been early on, Demidov is winning the award. I feel strongly about that. He dipped to as long as +400 this past week before drifting back to around +190 at current following a ridiculous game in Vancouver on Saturday in which he scored the game-winning goal to go along with two highlight-reel primary assists. He has re-taken the rookie lead in points, and I’m not sure he ever relinquishes it. He’s already one of the most electrifying players in the NHL with the puck on his stick, and he’s grown increasingly comfortable without it to earn coach Martin St. Louis’ trust – just 44.8% of his faceoffs are coming in the offensive zone. He’s also been bumped up to the top powerplay unit, forcing his way there much quicker than last year’s Calder winner Lane Hutson, who didn’t get the nod until midway through November.

As good as Schaefer is – and he is a fantastic player who’s going to terrorize this league for years to come – he’s not going to maintain anything close to the pace he’s been on to start the season. We’re talking about a kid who just turned 18 and is coming off a significant injury last year that limited him to 17 games. His career high in games played in a season since leaving minor hockey is 62, two years ago in the OHL, against kids. Demidov is turning 20 in December and just played 78 games a season ago between the KHL and NHL. He understands how to navigate a lengthy and grueling season, playing against men. Schaefer has a ways to go, both physically and mentally, to find the consistency he will need to be an impact player for 82 games in this league. It takes a while for guys to figure it out. That’s not a knock on Schaefer, he’ll get there eventually. But until he does, there will be some real growing pains over the course of the season.

Demidov is a great bet at current market prices.

2.) It was nice to see the Lightning finally rewarded for their strong play, winning their second and third games of the season this weekend. I haven’t seen any warning signs here like some are suggesting (hoping?). Their underlying numbers have been strong since a sluggish first two games of the season – not all that uncommon for a veteran group. More importantly, though, is Andrei Vasilevskiy returning to form. He’s saved 2.28 goals above expected in his last three starts after posting a minus-2.27 GSAx to start the campaign. There was never cause for concern here considering he missed all of training camp. JJ Moser’s emergence on the back end is massive for them. He leads the team in expected goal share at 5-on-5 with a ridiculous mark of 68.59%. Things have not been going as smoothly for Brayden Point or Nikita Kucherov, who are being outscored 14-5 and 13-6 respectively at even strength, despite strong underlying numbers. Regression is coming. The Lightning are still my team to beat in the Atlantic.

3.) No team is more overrated by market than the Winnipeg Jets. I’ve been low on this team early on. I felt as though the forward group was really thin with Adam Lowry and Cole Perfetti injured, and they were especially weak down the middle which would make it difficult for them to drive play. The market has hardly adjusted to those two being out, and I’ve been frequently betting against them. I feel justified by their 40% expected goal share at 5-on-5 (dead-last in the NHL), albeit frustrated by their 6-3 record. I gave out the Kraken at +200 on Hammer Daily last week which was a comfortable winner, and Utah got the job done as +145ish dogs yesterday, but fading them has been relatively fruitless otherwise. They’re a fraudulent 6-3, consistently priced like an elite team despite playing like a lottery team. We’re into the final week or two before Lowry and Perfetti are back playing games so our window to fade them may be closing, and this incredibly soft schedule so far isn’t getting any harder. They play in Minnesota on Tuesday before hosting Chicago and Pittsburgh to close out the week. Gross.

4.) (a). Macklin Celebrini scored the overtime winner and had three points in a 6-5 OT win in Minnesota on Sunday. That’s 15 points in nine games for the teenager, good for third in the NHL, and he’s doing it on a Sharks team disgustingly bereft of talent up front. Celebrini is rapidly approaching Jack Eichel/Jack Hughes territory in terms of where he ranks in the league hierarchy. If the NHL did a full redraft tomorrow, you could count on one hand the amount of forwards I’d take ahead of him. It goes without saying, but he needs to be a lock for Team Canada in Milan. His Hart odds were sitting at 200-1 yesterday at FanDuel. They’ve since been slashed in half (sorry), but even at 100-1 you should be sprinting to get down.

(b). Staying with the Sharks for a second: Sam Dickinson is a dude. Greir is building something special in San Jose.

5.) There’s potential for things to get ugly in Toronto. Losing Mitch Marner was not the fresh start Leafs fans hoped it might be. That’s not to say it shouldn’t have, or didn’t need to happen. But it was also the first big step towards the end of their window of contention. As currently constructed they’re not a Cup threat, but the real question is how low the floor is for this group? They were embarrassed by the Devils two nights after Anthony Stolarz publicly called out the team’s effort, compete, and playing style. Things didn’t look much better against the Sabres this weekend, either. The roster has significant flaws, and Craig Berube’s unevolved approach is easily beaten in the modern NHL. Auston Matthews has played himself out of the league’s elite tier. Anthony Stolarz, their now full-time starter who has never played more than 41 games in a season (including playoffs), has bone on bone in his knee and was seen icing both knees after Friday’s loss to Buffalo. Chris Tanev, the oft-injured and soon-to-be 36-year-old who played 88 games last season, already finds himself on IR. And for a big team, they’re not physical.

The Leafs have played just one playoff team from last season (Montreal on Opening Night) in their first nine games this season. They play none in their next six. With teams like the Canadiens and Wings on the ascent, the Leafs don’t have the luxury of time. They need to turn this around in a hurry or things could really spiral, and nothing I’ve seen from this group thus far suggests they will. The market gives them a greater than 70% chance at making the playoffs… I would strongly disagree with that number.

6.) I fought it as long as I could, but we officially have a goaltending controversy in Montreal. Samuel Montembault started three of the first four games, never looked comfortable, and Martin St. Louis didn’t hesitate going to Jakub Dobes, who has started four of six since. Dobes, who didn’t let in a goal all preseason, is 5-0 and leads the NHL with 9.1 GSAx. Montembault is 2-3 and ranks 69th out of 69 goalies this season with minus-7.2 GSAx. It feels like a Jaroslav Halak situation developing in Montreal. I will say: water always finds its level. As bad a start as it’s been for Montembault, he has too much talent to not figure it out. This is a guy who ranks fifth in the NHL in GSAx over the last three seasons combined, behind only Connor Hellebuyck, Ilya Sorokin, Linus Ullmark, and Igor Shesterkin. Esteemed company. St. Louis is riding the hot hand right now as he should, but if Dobes starts again in Seattle tomorrow, it’s officially his crease to lose, and then things get interesting. With top goalie prospect Jacob Fowler biding his time in Laval, I wonder if Montreal and Edmonton would make sense as trade partners with the Oilers desperate to shore up their goaltending.

7.) (a). While we’re on the topic of goalie tandems, I wanted to touch on Calgary and give my personal ranking of the biggest discrepancies between starter and backup in the NHL. I mentioned on the show a couple weeks ago that the gulf between Dustin Wolf and Devin Cooley in Calgary was the biggest in the league. I need to walk that back. The book has been out on Wolf to an extent early on after an insane rookie season. Shoot high. He’s not the biggest guy and players have been having success beating him up top. Wolf will figure out how to attack those high shots – he needs to use his shoulders and stop trying to catch everything. He’s already been much better in his last couple starts, and he needed to be after calling out the team’s lack of offense after Wednesday’s 2-1 loss to Montreal. But I’ve been impressed with Devin Cooley, albeit in a small sample. Goalies, outside of the league’s best, are fickle. It’s important not to overreact, but with goalies more so than anything else it’s also important to not get stuck too long on priors. There’s a rhythm to playing the position and when a guy falls out of it, he’s really hard to trust.

Biggest starter to backup downgrades in the NHL:

1.   Anthony Stolarz to Cayden Primeau (Toronto)
2.   Joey Daccord to Philipp Grubauer (Seattle)
3.   Lukas Dostal to Petr Mrazek (Anaheim)
4.   Andrei Vasilevskiy to Jonas Johansson (Tampa)
5.   Ilya Sorokin to David Rittich (NY Islanders)
6.   Dustin Wolf to Devin Cooley (Calgary)
7.   Karel Vejmelka to Vitek Vanecek (Utah)

8.) That’s, uh… a not great weekend for Vegas. They went down without a whimper in Florida, losing to both the Panthers and Lightning, scoring 1 goal on just 35 shots in two games combined. They’ve quietly struggled to generate offense at 5-on-5, and it’s something I’m keeping an eye on. Jack Eichel and Pavel Dorofeyev are carrying this team right now, but it really hasn’t been pretty from a supposed Cup contender. There are warning signs here. They need Noah Hanifin back in a big way, because they cannot generate offense from the back end right now. We’re seeing just how irreplaceable Alex Pietrangelo is.

9.) I’m not really buying Utah’s 8-2 start. They’ve been good, but let’s pump the breaks. They’re shooting 14% over this seven-game win streak and getting elite goaltending from both Karel Vejmelka and Vitek Vanecek. Their underlying numbers aren’t anything special, and that’s with them being boosted by dominant wins over bad Chicago, San Jose, and Boston teams. The result is a +9.3 goal differential above expected, the fourth-highest mark in the league. Nick Schmaltz is tied for the NHL lead in scoring, which is fun, but 29-year-olds don’t turn into Art Ross candidates overnight. Schmaltz has finished with 61 and 63 points the last two seasons. He’s on pace for 131 this year. My money says he doesn’t do it. Logan Cooley’s breakout is more believable, but he’s also not going to shoot 28% all season. We’ll find out a lot more about them over the next 14 days:

@ Edmonton
vs. Tampa
@ Buffalo
@ Toronto
@ Montreal
@ Ottawa

If they go .500 or better through that stretch, I’ll be impressed.

10.) Tuesday is the NHL’s annual Frozen Frenzy. I’d much rather spread the games out from Monday to Wednesday than go 2-16-1 like we are. It’s going to be impossible to keep tabs on everything, which is especially upsetting when you continue how good this slate really is. Good luck choosing between Vegas @ Carolina, Washington @ Dallas, New Jersey @ Colorado, or Utah @ Edmonton. The undercard is pretty good, too. I’m intrigued by Anaheim @ Florida, Winnipeg @ Minnesota, Detroit @ St. Louis, and Montreal @ Seattle. Preparing for this slate is going to be exhausting. I’ll be on Edge Work Overtime at 1 pm ET on Hammer Daily with both So Money and Matt Alber to break it all down.


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