The Hammer Monday Week 9/10 - Takeaways, Injuries and Early Leans

Suuma's Takeaways from Week 9
By: Suuma, NFL Originator

1. Players That Matter

On/off splits can be noisy. The sample sizes are small, confounders exist, and context often gets ignored. Take Patrick Surtain for example: over the past two seasons, the Broncos defense has actually been more efficient on a down-to-down basis without him than with him — which makes no real sense unless you remember that his 215 off-field snaps include a 2024 game against a Saints offense led by rookie Spencer Rattler and missing its entire starting WR corps. Context always matters.

But when the sample is larger and causal reasoning applies, on/off splits can tell a real story. Look at Brock Bowers. The Raiders’ offense looked competent in Week 1 at New England. Then Bowers got hurt — and everything collapsed. The run game is non-existing, pressure ramped up on Geno Smith, and the passing offense completely stalled. He’s the focal point of their offense, and his absence shows up in the data. Overall, the Raiders haven’t fielded an average since he got drafted, but him being off the field makes it a lot worse.

Trey Hendrickson is another prime example. The Bengals’ defense hasn’t been elite even with him on the field, but without him? It’s a full-blown collapse. Over 549 off-field snaps entering Week 9, Cincinnati’s defense drops from 0.06 to 0.16 EPA/play and from 8.8% to 18.2% DVOA — both bottom-of-the-league marks. After the Bears game, those splits will only get uglier. For reference: 0.16 EPA/play is roughly what the Chiefs offense has averaged this season. In other words, without Hendrickson, the Bengals turn every opponent into Kansas City. One player out of eleven shouldn’t have that effect — but a great edge rusher changes games psychologically as much as physically.

Then there’s Joe Alt. Since the start of 2024, he’s missed 322 snaps, and the Chargers’ offense has fallen off a cliff without him. Their pass DVOA drops from 6th to 26th, EPA/dropback from 9th to 27th. Watch the tape — the difference is obvious. When Alt’s at left tackle, Justin Herbert plays with confidence. When he’s out, protection collapses and the rhythm evaporates.

It’s easy to throw “next man up” around, but these cases prove it: some players aren’t just cogs — they’re the structure holding the entire operation together.

2. The Weekly Caleb Williams & Bo Nix Watch

Both teams are winning. Both quarterbacks are struggling.

The Bears (5–3) and Broncos (7–2) look competitive on paper, but watch their passing offenses and you’ll see the cracks. Bo Nix was unwatchable against Houston’s suffocating defense, and Caleb Williams got himself into trouble sometimes against a preseason-caliber Bengals unit. Chicago scored 47 points, but a lot of dropbacks looked labored — late reads, missed throws, and self-inflicted chaos. Williams wasted clean pockets, invited pressure, and scrambled himself into trouble. It’s still early, but this version of football isn’t sustainable against the better defenses in the league.

And context matters again. The Cowboys and Bengals don’t have real NFL defenses this season, so excluding those games gives us a clearer view. Without those matchups:
 

• Broncos passing offense: 31st in success rate
• Bears passing offense: 25th in success rate
• In EPA/play, they’re slightly better — 22nd and 20th respectively — because both Sean Payton and Ben Johnson can dial up the occasional explosive.

But down-to-down? These offenses are bottom-tier. Both coaching staffs are squeezing efficiency from big plays and schemed shots, not from quarterback execution. Their records look fine — their passing games, not so much.

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Rob and Clive's Early Leans for Week 10

Rob:
Nothing

Clive:
Nothing

Both:
Atlanta +6.5 vs. Indianapolis
Baltimore -3.5 vs. Minnesota
Las Vegas/Denver Under 42.5
New England/Tampa Bay Over 48
Pittsburgh/LA Chargers Under 45.5

To watch their game by game analysis of Week 10 Click Here:

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Injuries We are Watching for Week 10
*Note for teams returning from bye, the list is made up of the injuries they had going into the bye week.

Arizona - TBD (Playing Tonight)
Atlanta - CB Billy Bowman Jr. (Injured Inactive), DT Zach Harrison (Injured Inactive), OG Matthew Bergeron (Left Game), OG Chris Lindstrom (Left Game), EDGE Leonard Floyd (Left Game)
Baltimore - Nothing of Note
Buffalo - DT DaQuan Jones (Injured Inactive), LB Shaq Thompson (Injured Inactive), CB Taron Johnson (Injured Inactive), WR Josh Palmer (Injured Inactive)
Carolina - OT Taylor Moton (Active/Emergency), C Cade Mays (Injured Inactive), OG Chandler Zavala (Left Game)
Chicago - WR Luther Burden III (Injured Inactive), RB D'Andre Swift (Injured Inactive), RB Roschon Johnson (Injured Inactive), TE Cole Kmet (Left Game), EDGE Dominique Robinson (Injured Inactive)
Cincinnati (Bye Week) - EDGE Trey Hendrickson (Injured Inactive), LB Logan Wilson (Injured Inactive), RB Samaje Perine (Left Game)
Cleveland (Return from Bye) - QB Shedeur Sanders, RB Quinshon Judkins, TE Harold Fannin Jr., CB Tyson Campbell, LB Carson Schwesinger (Weeks), WR Cedric Tillman (Working back from I.R.)
Dallas (Bye Week) - TBD (Playing Tonight)
Denver - CB Patrick Surtain II (Injured Inactive), WR Marvin Mims (Injured Inactive)
Detroit - S Kerby Joseph (Injured Inactive), CB Terrion Arnold (Left Game), OT Taylor Decker (Left Game), OT Penei Sewell (Left Game), OG Christian Mahogany (Left Game/Long Term)
Green Bay - EDGE Lukas Van Ness (Injured Inactive), DT Colby Wooden (Left Game), TE Tucker Kraft (Season likely over), WR Matthew Golden (Left Game), WR Dontayvion Wicks (Injured Inactive), OG Aaron Banks (Left Game), CB Nate Hobbs (Banged Up)
Houston - QB C.J. Stroud (Left Game), OT Tytus Howard (Left Game), OG Ed Ingram (Left Game), FB Jakob Johnson (Working Back from I.R.)
Indianapolis - EDGE Samson Ebukam (Injured Inactive), EDGE Tyquan Lewis (Injured Inactive)
Jacksonville - LB Devin Lloyd (Injured Inactive), CB Jourdan Lewis (Left Game), OG Ezra Cleveland (Left Game), WR Brian Thomas Jr.  (Left Game), WR Dyami Brown (Left Game), WR Tim Patrick (Injured Inactive)
Kansas City (Bye Week) - OT Josh Simmons (Personal), OT Jawaan Taylor (Left Game), RB Isiah Pacheco (Injured Inactive)
Las Vegas - Nothing of Note
L.A Chargers - OT Joe Alt (Left Game), OT Bobby Hart (Left Game), OG Mekhi Becton (Injured Inactive), S Tony Jefferson (Injured Inactive), CB Tarheeb Still (Injured Inactive), TE Will Dissly (Injured Inactive)
L.A Rams - WR Puka Nacua (Left Game), CB Darious Williams (Injured Inactive)
Miami - RB Ollie Gordon II (Left Game), EDGE Chop Robinson (Left Game), CB Rasul Douglas (Left Game), S Ifeatu Melifonwu (Left Game), S Ashtyn Davis (Injured Inactive), TE Julian Hill (Injured Inactive)
Minnesota - RB Aaron Jones (Left Game), CB Jeff Okudah (Injured Inactive), TE Josh Oliver (Injured Inactive), FB C.J. Ham (Injured Inactive)
New England - RB Rhamondre Stevenson (Injured Inactive), WR Kayshon Boutte (Left Game), CB Christian Gonzalez (Left Game), LB Christian Elliss (Left Game)
New Orleans - OT Taliese Fuaga (Injured Inactive)
New York Giants - CB Paulson Adebo (Injured Inactive), CB Cordale Flott (Injured Inactive), S Jevon Holland (Injured Inactive), LB Darius Muasau (Left Game), OT Jermaine Eluemunor (Injured Inactive), C John Michael Schmitz (Left Game), TE Daniel Bellinger (Injured Inactive) 
New York Jets (Return from Bye) - WR Garrett Wilson, CB Sauce Gardner, QB Tyrod Taylor
Philadelphia (Return from Bye) - WR A.J. Brown, RB Saquon Barkley, C Cam Jurgens, EDGE Azeez Ojulari, CB Adoree' Jackson, CB Jakorian Bennett (Working back from I.R.), EDGE Nolan Smith (Working back from I.R.)
Pittsburgh - WR Scotty Miller (Injured Inactive), S Jabrill Peppers (Injured Inactive), S Chuck Clark (Illness Inactive), LB Cole Holcomb (Illness Inactive), OG Isaac Seumalo (Left Game), CB Darius Slay (Left Game)
San Francisco - QB Brock Purdy (Injured Inactive), WR Ricky Pearsall (Injured Inactive), EDGE Bryce Huff (Injured Inactive), EDGE Mykel Williams (Season likely over), C Jake Brendel (Injured Inactive), OG Ben Bartch (Injured Inactive)
Seattle - LB Ernest Jones IV (Left Game), CB Josh Jobe (Left Game), WR Cooper Kupp (Injured Inactive)
Tampa Bay (Return from Bye) - WR Chris Godwin Jr., RB Bucky Irving, OG Luke Haggard, EDGE Haason Reddick
Tennessee (Bye Week) - WR Calvin Ridley (Injured Inactive), DT Jeffery Simmons (Injured Inactive), EDGE Arden Key (Injured Inactive), S Xavier Woods (Injured Inactive)
Washington - QB Jayden Daniels (Long Term), WR Terry McLaurin (Injured Inactive), WR Luke McCaffrey (Season likely over), CB Marshon Lattimore (Season likely over)

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Expected Goals, Actual Opinions: Thoughts from around the NHL
By: Alex Moretto, Director of Content at the Hammer Betting Network

1.) I’ll start by addressing the elephant in the room. If you watch Edge Work Overtime or follow along in the Hammer Discord, you’ve likely lost some money betting Sens unders with me this season. We’ve been robbed. These have been great bets, I promise. Every. Single. One. Of. Them. And I will keep betting them. If you don’t want to continue banging your head against the wall I understand, but the generational run of Sens unders is coming.

The bottom line is this team continues to play extremely low-event hockey at 5-on-5, signalling a major scoring regression. Sens games have averaged 3.72 expected goals at 5-on-5 this season, the fourth-lowest mark in the league after the Flyers, Kraken, and Flames. The league average is 4.26. So how are these games continuing to fly over totals? Nonsense, that’s how. The Sens have scored the league’s third-most goals above expected and allowed the second-most. Goalies Linus Ullmark and Leevi Merilainen rank 72nd and 65th in GSAx out of 72 goalies in the NHL this season. Their penalty kill ranks dead last in the NHL at a paltry 62.5%. No team has finished with a penalty kill success rate below 70% since 1983 (68.6%). None of this is sustainable. The only thing that matters is they continue to play low-event hockey at 5-on-5. Everything else is noise. This is a strong defensive team under Travis Green that doesn’t generate much offense, either. Their unsustainable shooting percentage will drop. The goaltending will regress to the mean. The penalty kill will improve.

On Saturday we saw their game against the Habs lined at 6.5, barely shaded to the under. It was a gift. At least it should have been. It was a big edge, I bet it aggressively, it closed 6, played out exactly as expected, and somehow still found a way to go over. The Sens scored three goals on 17 shots – one scored from behind the goal line, and another that a Habs defenseman kicked into his own net. They can’t keep getting away with this, and they won’t. I will get rich off these or die trying.

2.) The best team in the tri-state area is the New York Rangers, not the New Jersey Devils. I wanted to pour some cold water over the Devils last week, but I wasn’t quite strong enough in my conviction at the time and I had too much respect for loyal listener/reader CHartl. A week later and I feel better about my outlook, but this also now feels like past-posting. What can you do. It was a humbling west coast trip for the Devils. Their underlying numbers were never close to as good as their start suggested, and I still have significant doubts about their goaltending – stop me if you’ve heard that before. At 5-on-5 they’ve been mediocre at best and are instead being carried by some absurd and completely unsustainable results on special teams. They lead the league in Net PP% (32.3) and are a close second in Net PK% (95.4). Last season’s top-ranked units posted marks of 27.1% and 87.9%. Regression is coming.

This is not a ‘Devils are bad’ post, though. They aren’t. This is a ‘Rangers are good’ post. It’s hard to find many faults in the Rangers’ game this season. It was funny when they went an eternity without scoring a goal on home ice this season, but there’s nothing funny about how well they’re playing. Mike Sullivan is a terrific head coach and he has done wonders in such a short time to shore up the defensive issues that plagued this group last season. They have the NHL’s best 5-on-5 defense (by xGA/60) playing in front of one of the best goaltending tandems. They’re coming along offensively as well, despite playing the majority of this season without Vinny Trochek. The right coach can do wonders in this league, and Sully has been exactly that for this group, changing the culture and getting them playing the right way. I do believe he leads them to a top-three finish in the Metro, and at +100 to make the playoffs they are the best bet available right now in the make/miss market. You should be clicking it.

3.) Is there a team you can confidently say won’t make the playoffs in the East right now? The Bruins are likely bad, the Penguins probably free-fall soon, the Flyers realistically aren’t good enough, and the Islanders are deeply flawed, but even those four are in the conversation for now. Just five points separates first place from 16th in the East through Sunday’s games, and no team has a goal differential worse than minus-three. The last place team in the conference is above .500! It’s not out of the norm for things to be congested early in the season, but the tiering system that was in place in the East for the past few years has crumbled. The shift is underway as some previous contenders have been dragged into the middle tier, while past basement dwellers are now climbing the ranks. I’m going to get into a deeper ranking of all teams in next week’s column, but this is going to be one of the most fascinating and wide-open playoff races the league has seen in years. There are at least 12 teams that should like their chances of making the playoffs, and I wouldn’t push back too hard if you told me that number was as high as 16. Seriously.

4.) Before the season I predicted the Avalanche and Lightning would meet in the Stanley Cup Final. Through four weeks, I feel even stronger about that. I’m of the mind that these two teams sit in a tier above the rest of the NHL right now. They both sit top three in xGF/60 and top four in xGA/60 at 5-on-5.

The Avs have just one regulation loss in 13 games and lead the league in expected goal share. They’ve done it largely without their starting goalie who just made his season debut on Saturday, and they shed a big distraction by locking up Martin Necas long term this week.

The Lightning have won five straight and are second in the league in expected goal share. They just won a Jonas Johansson start on the road to hand the Mammoth their first home loss of the season and have now given up just 5.83 expected goals against at 5-on-5 over this five-game win streak – 1.17 per game. Unheard of! They posted a 93.66 xGF% against the Predators on Tuesday! It took them a few games to get going, but now that they have, they will be joining the Avalanche at the top of the standings in short order.

Colorado hosts Tampa on Tuesday night in their first of nine meetings this season.

5.) It’s a long season and there are obviously plenty of teams who can threaten both Colorado and Tampa at the top, but the one that looks most primed to do so right now is Florida.

The Panthers are without Matthew Tkachuk and Aleksander Barkov (among others). Sam Bennett is struggling. Evan Rodrigues is centering the first line. Sergei Bobrovsky is off to a shaky start. And despite all this, the Panthers haven’t missed a beat. They are the same bruising, imposing, suffocating, play-driving team that won back-to-back Cups, despite missing two of the biggest pieces of those playoff runs. They just dominated the Knights and Stars on back-to-back Saturdays and sit fourth in expected goal share at 5-on-5. They are tied for the league lead in high-danger shots on goal. Sure, there will be lulls, but that’s a right they’ve earned after winning consecutive Cups. You have the luxury of taking nights off in the regular season when you bring it every night when it matters. And when it’s “mattered” so far this season – when they’ve played another contender – they’ve had no issue flexing their muscle despite everything that’s been working against them.

6.) My top 10 games of the week, headlined by the TB-COL matchup:

     1. Lightning @ Avalanche (Tuesday)
     2. Avalanche @ Oilers (Saturday)
     3. Lightning @ Knights (Thursday)
     4. Hurricanes @ Rangers (Tuesday)
     5. Oilers @ Stars (Tuesday)
     6. Mammoth @ Sabres (Tuesday)
     7. Canadiens @ Devils (Thursday)

7.) Brad Marchand was at the center of another really special moment this week, in a career littered with them, taking a leave from the Panthers to head to home and coach a U18 team in place of his longtime friend who lost his 10-year-old daughter, Selah, to cancer. He retuned to the team on Saturday, scoring the game’s first goal and the shootout winner against the Stars. Marchand was always easy to hate, but he’s become a hard guy not to love. He’s become a true role model and face of the league in the latter stages of his career and will be a first ballot Hall of Famer when he eventually does hang up the skates. Sending all my love and prayers to Selah’s family.

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