ATP Seoul
Underdogs utilizing the top guns’ jet lag?
With five tournaments to choose from on the main tours alone, there’s plenty of value on the board for the overnight matches in Asia and Europe. Let’s start in Seoul where it’s the men’s turn after Ekaterina Alexandrova won the WTA 250 event last week.
In a matchup between two up-and-comers, Chun Hsin Tseng takes on Aleksandar Kovacevic. While Tseng arguably has the bigger upside as a former junior No. 1, it’s Kovacevic who has been more impressive in his first-round win. The big-hitting American beat world No. 32 Miomir Kecmanović 6-4, 6-4 and hit 14 aces in the process. Against Tseng, Kovacevic will be the aggressor once more and on courts that play on the quick side of medium, this match might be closer than the odds suggest. If Kovacevic can keep up his great serving, he stands every chance against Tseng, who has been playing up and down to his competition lately, losing three-setters to Jan Choinski, Jozef Kovalik and Alexei Popyrin before the retirement of Christopher O’Connell helped him advance here in Seoul. The fact that Kovacevic’s performances are still volatile makes me go for overs rather than the underdog moneyline.
Jenson Brooksby’s talent has been flashing again at Flushing Meadows where he beat Dušan Lajović and Borna Ćorić in straight sets before losing to eventual champion Carlos Alcaraz. Outside of America, Brooksby still tends to struggle though. In round one of Seoul, Tung-Lin Wu had been the better player for two sets before eventually folding in the third. Tonight, Brooksby will be facing a better player with more experience, who will also get some crowd support. Kwon Soon-woo had trouble closing his first-rounder against Yunseong Chung as he failed to serve out the match from 7-6, 5-3, however, he never looked like losing. Two weeks ago, Kwon defeated Félix Auger-Aliassime in Davis Cup, and besides some other respectable wins, the South Korean also took a set off Novak Djoković at Wimbledon. In front of his home crowd, I don’t think Kwon should be bigger than +120 against a vulnerable opponent, which is why I’m betting him both on the moneyline and the games handicap.
Two more matches I’m going to attack and in both, the favorite was flying in straight from Laver Cup. With both Tylor Fritz and Casper Ruud on the entry list for Tokyo next week – an event offering twice as many points as Seoul – there’s a possibility they just use this week to acclimatize to the humid Asian conditions. Fritz hasn’t been as steady as earlier this year and Mackenzie McDonald, who already has a match under his belt in Seoul, is a tricky opponent to deal with when not at 100%.
No. 1 seed Ruud is facing the big-serving Chilean Nicolas Jarry, whom these rather quick conditions suit perfectly. If Ruud doesn’t return consistently early on, Jarry should find his rhythm on serve, resulting in a lot of holds. I’m counting on the jet lag to work its magic and hope that both McDonald and Jarry can play the top guns close.
Bets for ATP Seoul:
0.5u on Over 10.5 games 1st set in Tseng vs. Kovacevic (+225 with bet365)
1u on Over 22.5 games in Tseng vs. Kovacevic (-108 with Pinnacle)
0.5u on Kwon Soon-woo ML (+166 with Pinnacle)
1u on Kwon Soon-woo +3.5 games (-125 with bet365)
1u on Mackenzie McDonald +1.5 sets (-110 with bet365)
0.5u on Over 10.5 games 1st set in Ruud vs. Jarry (+188 with Kambi)
0.5u on Nicolas Jarry +1.5 sets (+150 with bet365)
ATP Sofia
Otte on the comeback trail
Oscar Otte has lost five straight matches after returning from knee surgery at the US Open. That being said, none of these losses have been bad and in his first-round win over Dragoș Nicolae Mădăraș, the German was also moving better again. Otte’s second-round opponent in Sofia, Kamil Majchrzak, has also been desperate for a tour-level win as he has lost six in a row, including a straight-sets defeat in a Challenger event at home in Poland. With both players having regained confidence, Otte should be the superior player. The 29-year-old has come a long way, even being seeded at this year’s Wimbledon. If his knee doesn’t bother him, I have this line at -3.5, which is why I see clear value in the current -2.0 games spread.
Bet for ATP Sofia:
1u on Oscar Otte -2.0 games (-108 with Pinnacle)
WTA Tallinn
Indoor conditions increasing Zhang’s tendencies of going over
Ysaline Bonaventure has been nothing more than an ITF mainstay this year. Her first-round upset over Shelby Rogers was the Belgian’s first WTA tour-level main-draw win in over 14 months. You never know what you get with Bonaventure, but she’s getting a little too much respect against Jil Teichmann for my liking. This might have something to do with the Swiss’ recent results as she came to Tallinn on a three-match losing streak. That being said, these losses came against Zhang Shuai, Petra Kvitová and Simona Halep. Putting wins and losses into perspective is vital when it comes to originating tennis lines and I’m not sure if Bonaventure’s little run here justifies giving her a 45%+ chance of beating Teichmann. Over the years, Teichmann has improved a lot on quick hard courts as she has also added some more pace to her groundstrokes. I have her winning this match close to 65% of the time and bet her on the moneyline consequently.
Finally, I like the overs in the match between Zhang Shuai and Donna Vekić. While Vekić is slowly getting into shape again, Zhang continues to be an over machine. Over her last four matches, the Chinese competed in five tiebreak-sets, while the first set went to 5-5 in all of her last three matches. She even needed two tiebreaks to beat Viktória Kužmová in her first-round match in Tallinn and while these indoor courts suit the Slovakian, the same can be said about Vekić. I don’t expect a whole lot of breaks in this one as I’m betting both the first-set and the total games over.
Bets for WTA Tallinn:
1u on Jil Teichmann ML (-135 with Caesars)
0.5u on Over 10.5 games 1st set in Zhang vs. Vekić (+310 with Kambi)
1u on Over 21.5 games in Zhang vs. Vekić (+102 with Kambi)