I have had a lot of success on totals this season so far, but have found that by the time I’m writing articles on Wednesday and Friday with plays, many of my favorite totals have already moved several points. For the rest of the season, I will be writing these “totally off” articles on Monday discussing my favorite totals for the week my model identifies as the biggest edges. I have had a lot of success beating markets on CFB totals this year so hopefully we can get a bunch of CLV and win some bets.
Louisville/Virginia over 50.5 -106 (FanDuel) *1 unit*
Virginia totals continue to open much lower than my numbers. Its offense has really struggled this year and the offensive line is largely to blame. The Cavs rely heavily on Brennan Armstrong both through the air and on the ground, and through five games have had just 100 rushing attempts from players other than the quarterback.
Louisville has scored 30+ points in each of its past three games, rushing for over 200 yards three times this season. The Cardinals rely much more on the run than Virginia, but the offense has shown its ability to put points on the board with plenty of playmakers – even without Malik Cunningham, who is questionable this week. The Louisville defense also gave up 34 points and 448 yards to a poor Boston College team in Week 5.
Both these teams rank in the top 50 in plays per minute – Virginia 29th at 2.48 and Louisville 45th at 2.33 and I expect both teams to see some success on offense. The over will take some money here and I would play it up to 54.
Georgia Southern/Georgia State under 65.5 -110 (DraftKings) *1 unit*
This is a hard one to hit submit on, as both these teams rank in the top 10 in plays per minute. However, Georgia State is very reliant on the run, rushing nearly twice as often as it has thrown it this season. Georgia Southern throws the ball much more frequently, but it only averages 6.4 yards per attempt – 99th nationally.
Neither of these offenses are very efficient and the last time a game between these two rivals went over this number was 2014. Georgia State’s defense is good enough to keep Georgia Sothern’s scoring chances to a minimum, and despite both teams playing up-tempo, I don’t believe there will be enough possessions for these below-average offenses to be able to go over this number. This is also a good spot thanks to Georgia Sothern’s deceiving total last week, where there were only 14 points at halftime, but the game ended up touching 64 thanks to 33 fourth quarter points.
I like the under in this one down to 62 and think it will probably close somewhere in that range.
Oregon/Arizona under 70.5 -110 (FanDuel) *1 unit*
I bet the Oregon and Stanford over last week at 62.5, and was lucky to cash considering just 34 points were scored in the first 40 minutes. However, this is the second game in a row now for Oregon where the final score hasn’t been indicative of the game tempo or total. Against Washington State two weeks ago there were 43 fourth quarter points thanks to a defensive touchdown, a big play, and a meaningless touchdown as time expired. I do like Oregon’s offense, but a series of misleading totals like this is a great indicator for a buy to the under.
Arizona has put up 30+ points in three straight games, against North Dakota State, California, and Colorado. However, the market is a little too hot on the Wildcats offense coming off their previous three performances. Scoring 43 against a miserable Colorado defense really doesn’t do much for me. Big plays were a fixture in the Cal game defenses not showing up, and Arizona still only managed seven points in the second half in a 49-31 loss.
Oregon (40th) rates very similarly to Mississippi State (35th) in plays per minute, yet when the Bulldogs went to Arizona earlier this season the total opened 62.5 and was bet down to 58. Oregon is going to be able to score in this game, but the Wildcats offense will run into troubles against much more competent defenses Cal’s and Colorado’s.
This under is probably my favorite play of the week and I’d bet it down to 67.
Best bets:
- Louisville/Virginia over 50.5 -106 (FanDuel) *1 unit*
- Georgia Southern/Georgia State under 65.5 -110 (DraftKings) *1 unit*
- Oregon/Arizona under 70.5 -110 (FanDuel) *1 unit*
Honorable mentions:
- Troy/Southern Miss under 45.5 -110 (FanDuel) *0.5 units*
- Pittsburgh/Virginia Tech over 43.5 -110 (DraftKings) *0.5 units*
- Coastal Carolina/UL Monroe over 58.5 -106 (FanDuel) *0.5 units*