Last week the inaugural totally off article went 1-2 with a close win on the Louisville over, a hook loss on the Oregon under, and a blowout loss on the Georgia State under. The honorable mention picks for half a unit each went 2-1. For Week 7, I have another great set of totals, with the first game being played on Wednesday!
Louisiana/Marshall under 47.5 -110 (DraftKings)
Neither Louisiana or Marshall plays particularly fast and both offenses are outside the top 50 in plays per minute. In addition, neither of these offenses have had much success through the first six weeks, and neither throw the ball particularly well – which is great for our under here. I have both these offenses ranked around 100th nationally, while I have each defense in the top 50.
Both Louisiana and Marshall have played lots of slow, defensive games this year and I expect this matchup to feature much of the same. These two teams are both off a bye week and with an extra handful of days to prepare for this one I expect the defenses to be well-rested and ready to go.
I really like the under in here and would play it down to 46.5.
Baylor/West Virginia under 55.0 -110 (DraftKings)
Baylor and West Virginia meet on Thursday, each coming off a bye. The tempo in this one shouldn’t be too quick – Baylor ranks 70th in plays per minute, while West Virginia ranks 46th. I really like the Baylor defense and think they will hold JT Daniels and this West Virginia offense to very few good scoring opportunities.
Baylor is fresh off a 36-25 game against Oklahoma State, one where I backed under 56.5 big. A kickoff return for a touchdown, a couple big plays, and some costly turnovers leading to short fields resulted in 39 third quarter points to kill the under after a very slow first half. Both these teams have a couple outlier games with 70+ points scored, and ultimately, I think that is part of what is dragging this game total up. I expect the Baylor defense to control this one and think the total is much too high for the expected tempo of this big conference game. I’d take this this one down to 53.
UL Monroe/South Alabama over 51.5 -110 (FanDuel)
The UL Monroe and Coastal Carolina over 58 in Week 6 was on the honorable mention list of this article last week, but ultimately was unable to get home with only 49 points in the contest. However, there were 42 total points in the first half, followed by just seven in the second, with UL Monroe turning it over three times in the red zone – twice on downs and one fumble – including once on the 1-yard line.
This UL Monroe team gave up 45 points two weeks ago against Arkansas State and will struggle to stop this South Alabama offense. It has also shown an ability to score on its own and is averaging over 20 points in three conference games against Arkansas State, Coastal Carolina, and ULL.
ULM ranks in the bottom 20 in the country in plays per minute, but the game script here will force them to play a little faster. South Alabama will be able to score basically at will against a Monroe defense that has looked very vulnerable the past couple weeks, forcing the visitors to speed up their offense in order to keep up. I’d play this up to 53.
Best bets:
- Louisiana/Marshall under 47.5 -110 (DraftKings) *1 unit*
- Baylor/West Virginia under 55.0 -110 (DraftKings) *1 unit*
- UL Monroe/South Alabama over 51.5 -110 (FanDuel) *1 unit*
Honorable mentions:
- Kent St/Toledo under 62.0 -110 (DraftKings) *0.5 units*
- Miami OH/Bowling Green over 46.0 -110 (DraftKings) *0.5 units*
- Arizona/Washington under 73.0 -105 (DraftKings) *0.5 units*