ATP Tokyo
Fitness a doubt for Fritz against Duckworth
After being close to beating Rafael Nadal in the quarterfinal of Wimbledon, not a whole lot has worked for Taylor Fritz in the second half of the season. At the US Open, the American lost to Brandon Holt as a -2500 favorite and of his last six matches, Fritz lost four. He also had to pull out of Seoul last week due to illness. It’ll be super humid in Tokyo tomorrow and Fritz’s body has let him down in such conditions in the past. Two months ago in Washington, he “constantly felt like [he] was going to pass out”, ending up in a retirement against Daniel Evans and it was against James Duckworth when he felt similarly in Toronto last year. The same James Duckworth he’ll be facing again tomorrow. Oddly enough, the Australian leads the head-to-head with Fritz 2-0 and while I’m not putting a huge emphasis on that, it shows that he has the ability to challenge players of Fritz’s caliber. Given the opportunity of gaining a lot of points this week – world No. 253 Hiroki Moriya awaits in round two – Duckworth will leave it all on the court. On the other hand, we don’t really know what physical condition Fritz is in and considering the American’s history in humidity, I think Duckworth is the player to side with in this one. Since the games handicap moved quite a bit in the meantime, I’m betting the set handicap which I would play down to +125.
Bet for ATP Tokyo:
1u on James Duckworth +1.5 sets (+175 with bet365)
WTA Ostrava
Muchová to make Haddad Maia uncomfortable in slow conditions
Beatriz Haddad Maia has arguably been the most improved player on the WTA tour this year. The Brazilian possesses a win/loss record of 51-21 in 2022, including a 13-match winning streak on grass. That being said, Haddad Maia loves the quicker courts and I don’t think she’ll be pleased with the slow conditions here in Ostrava. The impact of her big lefty serve and forehand will be diminished quite a bit this week. Moreover, Haddad Maia will be facing an opponent with great hands and a high tennis IQ in Karolína Muchová tomorrow. Unlike most of her compatriots, the slower indoor conditions suit Muchová perfectly as she can absorb the pace and turn defense into offense with her great repertoire of shots. Unfortunately, injuries held back the Czech for the better part of her career, however, when she’s fit, she can beat almost anyone – as seen in her run to the semifinal at the 2021 Australian Open where she shockingly beat world No. 1 Ashleigh Barty. I’ve always rated
Muchová highly and in front of her home crowd, in conditions that suit her game much better than Haddad Maia’s – who also seems to run out of gas a bit, having had trouble beating Wang Xinyu and not standing a chance against Barbora Krejčíková in Tallinn last week – I like the Czech down to -138.
Bet for WTA Ostrava:
1u on Karolína Muchová ML (-110 with bet365)