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Week 10: Hammer staff picks

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Rob Pizzola’s pick

  • Saints/Vikings under 41 (-110)
    • With 41 being a key number I wouldn't go lower than this. Josh Dobbs deserves full credit for last week, but the Saints are now preparing for him unlike the Falcons last week. Minnesota struggles to run the ball and will have a difficult time doing so against New Orleans here, which puts a ton of pressure on Dobbs. The Vikings play a lot of Cover 2 under Brian Flores, which Derek Carr struggles massively against. The number is just two high here in a matchup where both offenses will have a hard time moving the ball with much success.

Fabian Sommer’s picks

  • Steelers -3 (-118)
    • The metrics show the Steelers are lucky to be 5-3, but that being said they've had a brutally tough schedule up to this point while also dealing with some key injuries. They've got most key guys back here just in time for the schedule to get softer, and it starts against a Packers team I am very low on. The Steelers should be able to get after Jordan Love with consistency, while the offense does enough here to cover the number.
  • Jets +1 (-115)
    • Getting the better team at PK; Jets defense might annihilate O’Connell.

Hitman’s pick

  • Ravens -6 (-110)
    • For all the talk about the Browns defense this season, the Ravens defense has been flying under the radar, ranking first in yards per play and second in EPA. I'm also not sold on Deshaun Watson being 100% yet. The Browns offense scored just two touchdowns last week against arguably the worst defense in the NFL, both coming off very short drives of 11 and 49 yards, the latter of which resulting in a touchdown off a very lucky deflection. Cleveland's offense is in the bottom fourth of the league here and is in for a big step up in class against a Baltimore team firing on all cylinders.

ClevTA’s pick

  • Saints -2.5 (-110)
    • Fading the Dobbs narrative from last week. Backups coming in mid game typically have the advantage. Saints will have the week to prepare for him and Minnesota is very banged up on offense with Darrisaw, Hockenson, Akers, and Osborn battling injuries. The Saints are very healthy and the defense can shut down this offense enough to cover with their new found Taysom Hill-led offense. Line should close -3.

CFB bets from Brad Powers

  • Temple +8 (-110)
    • I made it +7, which doesn't seem like a big discrepancy, but Temple's power rating is being dragged down because of the games they played without quarterback E.J. Warner. He came back last week and Temple absolutely throttled Navy by 14 points as over a touchdown underdogs, despite a minus-four turnover margin which suggests they should have won by even more. The Owls are a completely different team with Warner under center, which flies under the radar in the market. He's worth about a full touchdown to the point spread and that's not being reflected properly here. 


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