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Week 11: Hammer staff picks

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Rob Pizzola’s pick

  • Browns +1.5 (-120)
    • I like the Browns on the moneyline as well here, good all the way to -123. I've been waiting for an opportunity to fade the Steelers and this is it. You don't get outgained in nine straight games by accident - this team is not good, the metrics are bad, and the way they are winning games is not sustainable. DTR looked bad in his first start, but this is a much easier opponent for him against a Steelers defense that Will Levis and Jordan Love just looked very good against. The matchup for the Steelers offense here against the Browns defense is also very good for Cleveland, who dominated that first game in Pittsburgh despite what the final score suggested.

Fabian Sommer’s picks

  • Chargers -3 (-110)
    • I just cannot trust the Packers offense against Brandon Staley's defense. Green Bay looked better last week against a Steelers defense that played right into their hands with their coverages, but the Packers still couldn't fully take advantage, and now face a step up on class. On the other side of the ball, Green Bay's defense is really bad despite playing the third easiest schedule thus far. They've only played two quarterbacks with a pulse - Kirk Cousins and Jared Goff - and were shredded by both offenses. Green Bay has been able to feast on some very bad quarterbacks, but that won't be the case here in a very good bounce-back spot for the Chargers in a game where Jordan Love won't be able to outduel Justin Herbert.

Hitman’s pick

  • Chiefs -2.5 (-115)
    • Good to -120. Dallas Goedert is an underrated loss for the Eagles, while Jalen Hurts' limited mobility is also concerning. The Chiefs defense has been excellent - 5th in EPA per play and 4th in success rate allowed - while the Eagles secondary has struggled, with the defense relying heavily on winning up front, but Kansas City has a top five offensive line that can counter that. The Chiefs offense is still 7th in EPA per play, quarterbacked by Patrick Mahomes, and matches up well with an Eagles defense that struggles against short passing attacks.

ClevTA’s pick

  • Panthers +10.5 (-110)
    • Double-digit dogs are on an 18-6 ATS run since 2021 and covering at a 60% rate since 2000. Carolina is coming off a mini bye, while Dallas is looking ahead to a short Thanksgiving week vs. a division rival. The Panthers will also be getting multiple starters back from injury. 

CFB bets from Brad Powers

  • Utah State +4.5 (-106)
    • Good to +3. This is moreso a play against Boise State than anything. The Broncos just fired their coach, basically punting on the season despite still having slim hopes of a conference title. Their best wide receiver just quit the team, their starting running back is hurt and I'm not sure he comes back, and they can't figure out the quarterback position. These teams are pretty close to even in all the important metrics, and yet we have the more motivated of the two at home here catching over a field goal. 


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