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Week 12: Hammer staff picks

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Rob Pizzola’s pick

  • Patriots -3 (-115)
    • Good to -123. There's a lot of uncertainty in this game, but there are also a lot of matchups that work in the Patriots' favor here. They were also very banged up in their last game and should be much healthier coming out of the bye. Ultimately I'm not buying into the Giants being a good team. They're dealing with key injuries on defense and I can't get behind Tommy DeVito under center despite a good game against the miserable Commanders defense.
  • Steelers -1 (-110)
    • Good to -2.5. The drop-off from Burrow to Browning is bigger than stated by the market. Other teams have had success with bad or backup quaterbacks because they can rely on their defense (DTR, Pickett, Z. Wilson, etc), but the Bengals defense is blow average in success rate, EPA, and DVOA. I think Cincinnati is in Panthers and Giants territory without Burrow.

Fabian Sommer’s picks

  • Texans +1.5 (-110)
    • This matchup will come down to which passing offense will be more explosive and consistent, and I trust CJ Stroud and the Texans more in that area. Stroud is so fun to watch right now and seems like he has an answer on every play. He is good against any type of coverage and ranks top three in many passing metrics from a clean pocket, which is bad news for the Jaguars who rank 29th in pass rushing rate.

Hitman’s pick

  • AJ Dillon under 47.5 rushing yards (-115)
    • Tough matchup for Dillon who is a little banged up with a groin injury. Green Bay really struggled to run against the Lions in the previous meeting as well.

ClevTA’s pick

  • Commanders/Cowboys over 48.5 (-110)
    • Washington games have gone over the total the most of any team in the NFL (+8 points per game). Dallas has averaged 39 points per game at home in the last year and should score at will here vs. a bottom-five pass defense.

CFB bets from Brad Powers

  • LSU -10.5 (-110)
    • This is not a numbers play. Numbers would suggest Texas A&M is the play. But late in the season sometimes you can throw the power ratings away. Texas A&M is a bit of a dead team now with an interim coach and a third-string quarterback making his first road start against an LSU team that's still plenty motivated to put up as many points as possible to try and get their quarterback Jayden Daniels the Heisman. LSU wins in a blowout.


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