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Week 15: Hammer staff picks

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Rob Pizzola’s pick

  • Commanders/Rams over 49 (-110)
    • I have this lined above 51 as my favorite total of the week. The Commanders defense is bad, but somehow the market still hasn't caught up to just how bad. They can't stop anything, the front seven is a disaster, and the secondary is terrible, which makes the Rams' floor here very high on offense. On the other side of the ball, Sam Howell should find success against a defense without too many playmakers overall, and will be throwing a ton with the Commanders likely playing from behind.
  • For more of Rob's favorite NFL plays, watch our Week 15 best bets show featuring Rob Pizzola, Hitman, Clev TA, and Adam Chernoff.

Fabian Sommer’s picks

  • xxx (-xxx)
    • Good

Hitman’s pick

  • Chicago Bears +3 (+100)
    • Good to -103. What Flacco is doing right now isn't sustainable, throwing at 5% above expectation, and now he faces a Bears defense that's 5th in EPA since Week 5. The Browns are also dealing with cluster injuries on the OL, as well as on defense.

ClevTA’s pick

  • Bills -1.5 (-110)
    • After three straight home games and a string of bad defenses, this is a big step up both in quality of opponent and environment on the road in Buffalo. Allen crushes man defense and Dallas runs a man heavy scheme.

CFB Bowl bets from Brad Powers, Joey Knish

  • Powers: Texas Tech -2.5 (-115)
    • Cal's offensive coordinator is off to Baylor, and this is a good matchup for Texas Tech who have excelled this season against teams like Cal with soft defenses.
  • Knish: Missouri +3 (-110)
    • I'd expect a lot of players to sit for Ohio State in this game (Harrison, Ebuka, Chamber, Sawyer, Paul, Henderson, etc). When the QB leaves, it gives all the rest of those guys the carte blanche to do the same. This may be presumptuous, but I expect all or most of the draft guys for the Buckeyes to sit and Missouri is just going to roll them. This should close with Missouri as favorites, maybe even as high as a field goal.
  • Knish: Missouri/Ohio State under 50 (-110)
    • For many of the reasons listed above - the Buckeyes offense could be a shell of itself in this game.
  • For more bowl betting and discussion, watch Hit the Books every Monday and Friday at 5 p.m. ET featuring Brad Powers and Joey Knish.


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