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Week 16: Hammer staff picks

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Rob Pizzola’s pick

  • Cardinals/Bears under 44 (-110)
    • This is a tough matchup for Kyler Murray, who struggles against teams that play heavy zone like the Bears do, while the offense was dealt a blow with Marquise Brown re-aggravating his injury. This Chicago defense has been playing at a very high level since acquiring Montez Sweat and getting healthy. Arizona's defense is not particularly good, but they play by far the most quarters coverage in the league which poses a difficult matchup for Justin Fields who much prefers to face man coverage than zone. Chicago will likely run a ton here as well, which should keep the clock running and help contribute to this under.
  • For more of Rob's favorite NFL plays, watch our Week 16 best bets show featuring Rob Pizzola, Hitman, Fabian Sommer, and George Tsilfidis.

Fabian Sommer’s picks

  • Minnesota Vikings +3 (+100)
    • Jared Goff and the Lions offense face a tougher matchup here against a Vikings defense that plays the exact style that has posed them issues this season. Brian Flores is a very smart DC and will be able to give them fits. On the other side, Nick Mullens is not a great quarterback, but Kevin O'Connell has built a strong foundation for quarterbacks to find success in this offense. With a healthy Justin Jefferson they will be able to move the ball and I simply cannot get to +3 here. 

Hitman’s pick

  • Cleveland Browns -2.5 (-115)
    • I expect CJ Stroud to miss this game and for this line to move to -3 when it becomes official. The Texans are a bottom five team with Case Keenum under center. The Browns defense has a big matchup advantage against this Texans offense with Keenum under center, while this bad Houston defense won't be able to keep them in the game.

ClevTA’s pick

  • Chiefs -10 (-110)
    • This line is short based on the fact that just four weeks ago Kansas City closed -9 in Las Vegas, and not much has changed. If you flip home fields this should be closer to -11.5/12. The Raiders haven’t scored more than 17 on any top-15 defense with Aidan O'Connell under center and this is only his second real road game (LAC doesn’t count).

CFB Bowl bets from Brad Powers, Joey Knish

  • For bowl betting and discussion, watch Hit the Books every Monday and Friday at 5 p.m. ET featuring Brad Powers and Joey Knish.


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