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Week 5: Hammer staff picks

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Rob Pizzola’s pick

  • Bears/Commanders over 44.5 (-105)
    • Good to 45. I make this closer to 46.5 Last year's low-scoring meeting lingers in the mind, but that final was not indicative of how the game played out, and the Bears are a big-time over team for me right now.
  • Vikings +4.5 (-110)
    • Vikings are 7th in success rate on offense and 20th in EPA, adjusted for strength of schedule. Eventually they will stop committing fluky turnovers. The Chiefs have yet to find their form on offense, with three lackluster performances in four games thus far. The Vikings are generally an appealing team to back when all they have to do is keep the game close.

Fabian Sommer’s pick

  • Texans +2 (-110)
    • Good to PK. With both of these teams we must be quicker to react and lean on in-season data as opposed to our priors.
  • Eagles/Rams over 50 (-110)
    • Matchup sets up nicely offensively. Expecting a pass-funnel Rams offense that attacks the Eagles' middle-of-the-field defense rather successfully, while Philly should be able to move the ball in various ways.

Hitman’s pick

  • Rams +4.5
    • Good to +3.5. Outside chance we get Cooper Kupp back. Market hasn't caught up to the Rams yet with how well the defense and Matthew Stafford are playing. Eagles secondary has been susceptible to big plays against competent passing offenses, and the Rams are able to take advantage. I made this closer to 3.25.

ClevTA’s pick

  • Bears TT over 19.5 (-109)
    • The Bears offense showed signs of life last week, and have now quietly scored 20+ points in three of their four games this season. Teams that are favored on TNF coming off an overtime game have allowed opponents to go over their team total in 18 of 24 instances since 2000.

CFB bets from Brad Powers

  • UCLA Bruins -3 (-111)
    • I make this -4.5. Good spot for UCLA to get the offense back on track after the bye, against a Washington State team facing its first true road test of the season.
  • Michigan Wolverines -19.5 (-110)
    • Sitting at a dead number, anticipating a market move to close -21 which is what I made it.


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