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Week 7: Hammer staff picks

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Rob Pizzola’s pick

  • Eagles -2.5 (-110)
    • Good to -2.5 (-121). All the teams Miami has beaten this season rank in the bottom half of the league in terms of pressure rate. Their one loss came against the Bills, who have the best pressure rate in the league. The Eagles rank fourth and will have a huge edge at the line of scrimmage here. Jalen Hurts should have success working his way up and down the field against Vic Fangio's defense, and we should see positive regression for the Eagles' red zone offense against a Dolphins defense that isn't great in the red zone.

Fabian Sommer’s pick

  • Commanders -2.5 (-110)
    • Anything under -3 is good here. The Giants' OL is in shambles because of injuries so expect the Commanders to dominate the line of scrimmage here. Stylistically this is a good matchup for Sam Howell, as well as Washington's run game, against the Giants defense. I don't see how the Giants find success on offense here with Tyrod Taylor behind a banged up offensive line against this Commanders front.

Hitman’s pick

  • Saints -1 (-110)
    • I like this whether or not Trevor Lawrence plays. There is only upside here - if he doesn't play this will pass -3. The Saints defense has been really good, ranking 5th in EPA/play and 3rd in success rate, while the Jaguars secondary has allowed 8.6 yards per target to opposing wide receivers and now comes into this game shorthanded against a very good trio of Saints WRs. This is also the third game in 12 days for the Jaguars, and an incredibly short turnaround coming back from back-to-back games in London. 

ClevTA’s pick

  • Commanders -2.5 (-110)
    • Giants OL decimated vs. good Commanders front four. Washington has only lost to two elite teams - Philadelphia and Buffalo - as well as an outlier schedule loss to Chicago on a short week off an overtime game. Washington should handle its business here.

CFB bets from Brad Powers

  • Coastal Carolina -9.5 (-110)
    • I made it -10.5, so above a key number. Good to -10. I think the light bulb went on for Coastal Carolina finally in their last game, especially for the offense. This looked like the Chanticleers of old finally, for the first time under this new regime, and if that is a sign of things to come they are the far superior team here.


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