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Week 9: Hammer staff picks

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Rob Pizzola’s pick

  • Chargers/Jets under 41 (-110)
    • Good to -119. The Jets are dealing with a cluster of injuries on the OL which will significantly hinder the offense. Neither offense plays with any pace so we can expect a slower game, especially with both teams content to run the ball early and often, and chip away with short passes.

Fabian Sommer’s pick

  • Colts -2 (-110)
    • Like the matchup for the Colts against a soft Carolina run defense missing players up front.

Hitman’s pick

  • Bills/Bengals over 48.5 (-110)
    • The Buffalo defense is 29th in EPA/play since being hit with key injuries to Tre White and Matt Milano, while the Cincinnati defense is 26th in pass success rate. The Dawson Knox injury actually changes the Bills offense for the better as they get back to the 3-4 WR sets that worked for them more last year, while the Bengals lead the NFL in pass rate over expectation the last five weeks. These are two offenses trending up, facing two struggling defenses that have regressed significantly from last year.

ClevTA’s pick

  • Vikings +4 (-110)
    • Backup quarterbacks are on a roll in their debuts of late, going 19-6 ATS since 2020. Kevin O’Connell will put Jaren Hall in advantageous situations and will use his legs more than he could with Kirk Cousins. The Vikings defense is also underrated, having faced a brutal schedule up to this point, while holding every bottom 16 offense they've faced - similar to Atlanta - below their season average success rate. The points will be valuable in what will likely be a lower scoring game.

CFB bets from Brad Powers

  • Boise State +4 (-110)
    • My power ratings make this +2, which is a big discrepancy here moving through a key number. Boise has had a hard luck season, losing on a Hail Mary play after leading by 20 with five minutes left. They lost on a last-second field goal against UCF. They had a field goal blocked and returned for a TD against Memphis in a game they lost by just three. So Boise is a bit undervalued in the market because of misleading results, while Fresno is being overvalued due to a much easier schedule they haven't been all that impressive in navigating. Positive regression is coming for Boise and I like this all the way down to +3.


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