Tamara Korpatsch vs. Danka Kovinic - WTA Budapest 125K
It’s a busy week for the WTA Tour, with events at three different levels taking place. The top two events by money and ranking points are being staged in Tokyo, Japan and Seoul, South Korea. However, the majority of the value comes from the clay-court 125K event in Budapest, Hungary.
It’s from that event we find Wednesday’s bet, in a match featuring Tamara Korpatsch and Danka Kovinic.
Korpatsch as Steady as They Come
The 27-year-old German has a similar profile to many of the players found at the lower levels of the WTA Tour and on the ITF circuit. Without much power to offer, Korpatsch is reliant on consistency, the ability to defend well and wait out errors from opponents and the ability to construct points well so that even without pace on her shots, she can hit through open courts.
It’s not an elite game, but it works at levels where players lack the ability to combine consistency with power.
Having won a higher-level ITF event in Switzerland, before qualifying and coming back from a set down in the opening round here in the Hungarian capital, Korpatsch has put together a win streak - one that is likely the primary factor in her being a favorite in this match.
However, of her three wins this week, her second qualifying match came via retirement, while her first-round comeback was against Lucia Bronzetti, who had to retire injured from a match at the U.S. Open and won a single game in two sets in her lone match since that injury. After a hot 6-2 start, she cooled off as she looks to rebuild her form and dropped the next two sets to Korpatsch.
Kovinic the Better Player, Despite Underdog Status
As for Kovinic, the world No. 76 is back at home on the clay, and despite some less-than-stellar results in the past few weeks, should still be the favorite in this one for my money.
She isn’t someone that struggles with consistency, yet has a much bigger game than Korpatsch. With a game that includes some pace from the baseline, but also uses topspin to have the ball kick through the court and make her shots tougher to deal with, she is much more comfortable (and successful) on the dirt.
If we take a look at the clay-court elo ratings of these two, we see that Kovinic actually outpaces Korpatsch by about 100 points. While that isn’t the be-all-end-all of tennis handicapping, it does show that Kovinic typically plays at a much higher level of competition.
Form is important in an individual sport like tennis, but in this spot, I’ll be looking to take advantage of some recency bias and overreaction to Korpatsch’s winning streak. Give me the more well-rounded player with more pedigree at the WTA level on the clay at plus money.
Bet: Kovinic ML, 1 unit at +120 (Unibet)