A five-match slate in the Transylvania region of Romania rounds out the second round on Thursday, and there is value to be found among those matches.
At slight elevation (just over 1,100 feet) and played indoors, the conditions this week have favored those that play a more aggressive style and can really ramp up the power behind their shots.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at a pair of matches where we can stake valuable positions.
Xiyu Wang vs. Elena Gabriela Ruse
After both women were tasked with a more defensive-minded grinder type player in their opening round tilts, the pair of big hitters will square off with each other for a spot in the quarterfinals.
Wang is the slight favorite in this one, but is still being undervalued for me. For starters, she was much more impressive in dispatching Jaquelin Adina Cristian in the opening round than Ruse was sending Harmony Tan packing (the Romanian was down a set and then trailed by a break and was just two points from being a double break down in the third set).
Ruse also looked far more tired towards the end of her match and was clutching at her knee between points on a few separate occasions as well.
Finally, in terms of the matchup, Wang has the much more sustainable game of the two. Her power is a lot more natural, and after years of struggling with consistency, she made the wise choice to play far more clay events this year than in years past. The result? Much-improved rally tolerance, which has helped her progress tremendously (she now finds herself inside the world’s top-60 ranking-wise).
Her Romanian opponent can also rip from the baseline, but she plays with much less margin for error, and doesn’t have quite as big of a serve to find as many cheap points. With a backhand that can go haywire at times, the fact she’s playing against a big left-handed forehand could also prove to be disastrous for her.
Ultimately, I have this one much closer to the 3.5-game mark in terms of the spread and am more than happy to get involved at just 2.5 games.
Pick: Wang -2.5 Games. 1.5 units at -118 (Coolbet)
Anastasia Potapova vs. Viktorija Golubic
Another match in which I’ll be backing the bigger hitting player features Russian Anastasia Potapova taking on Viktorija Golubic.
I’m still not convinced by Golubic’s recent run indoors, having qualified and reached the second round in Tallinn and then winning her first-round match in Cluj-Napoca.
Her form as a whole for the 2022 season has been uninspiring, and the unforced errors have been just a bit too prevalent in her game for my liking - especially since she doesn’t possess much natural power from the baseline.
While she is capable of taking the ball early and plays a rather flat-hitting style to take time away from her opponents, she won’t be blowing anyone off the court anytime soon. Her one-handed backhand is also something that can be exploited by players that can ramp up the pace and try to rush her from that wing in baseline exchanges.
Insert Potapova, who’s game style can best be described as trying to hit the cover off the ball. She has the power needed to dictate, and if she can effectively target that backhand side for Golubic, she can keep points short, thereby minimizing how often she commits unforced errors of her own.
In slight altitude and indoors, I’ll once again look to back the player that’s most likely to dictate play and be on the front foot throughout.
Pick: Potapova ML. 1 unit at -133 (Coolbet)