A quick midweek outright article from San Diego where the top women’s players are bidding for a place in the WTA Finals starting by the end of the month. The race is still wide-open, so that should make for an exciting week of tennis.
To the surprise of many, Iga Świątek also made her way to the US after losing a nerve-wracking final to Barbora Krejčíková in Ostrava on Sunday. The world No. 1 has skipped tournaments for less travel before and even though she has a late Thursday start, I’m not too sure about her chances this week in California. She hasn’t looked quite as invincible after Alizé Cornet broke her 37-match winning streak at Wimbledon and at +250, I’m passing on her outright in such a high-quality field. That being said, she’ll still be a decent-sized favorite against anybody, so if you fancy Zheng Qinwen or Coco Gauff in this draw, you might be better off betting them match by match. I was close to betting Jessica Pegula, however, Daria Kasatkina won’t allow any mistakes should they meet in the quarterfinal. Ultimately, the market move from +1000 to +700 without having hit a ball, or a favorite dropping out of that section, made me stay away from the American.
My only outright pick comes from the bottom quarter, where Danielle Collins had a convincing start to the tournament. The American is unplayable when she’s in form and Caroline Garcia, No. 5 in the WTA Singles Race, learned that the hard way on Monday. Collins was dominant from start to finish in her 6-2, 7-6 victory. Her draw, consisting of Martina Trevisan and an out-of-form Paula Badosa is very feasible and potential semifinal opponents Donna Vekić, Karolína Plíšková, Sloane Stephens and Aryna Sabalenka all lack consistency. Collins should still have a lot left in her tank and she can also hold her own against the very best, as seen at this year’s Australian Open where she defeated Świątek and only lost a close final to Ash Barty. Since she was an underdog in her first match against Garcia, I don’t mind the move from +1200 to +667. The evidence of good form made me place a bet on Danielle Collins in the outright market.
WTA San Diego outright pick:
0.75u on Danielle Collins (+667 with Pinnacle)