The second week of this year’s Asian swing is already the last for the WTA tour. We have two more tournaments in Seoul and Tokyo with all the top-ranked players competing at the latter WTA 500 event.
Paula Badosa is the top seed in Tokyo. However, the world No. 3 is already an underdog in her very first match. While I don’t disagree with that assessment as a firm believer in Zheng Qinwen, it only shows that the market has also caught up with the young Chinese. At +800, I don’t see too much value in Qinwen’s number as Elise Mertens, her potential quarterfinal opponent, seems to be playing better again as well.
No. 4 seed Veronika Kudermetova should have a smooth opener against Fernanda Contreras Gómez before facing the winner of Naomi Osaka and Beatriz Haddad Maia. The Russian is playing rock-solid this year, having reached two finals, and at the US Open, Kudermetova only lost a close match to eventual runner-up Ons Jabeur. While Osaka has been far from her best for quite some time now – she has lost four matches in a row before getting handed a first-round retirement win here due to a horrible injury of Daria Saville – Haddad Maia seems to be running out of steam a bit. The Brazilian was defeated by Ana Bogdan in Portorož last week, following up her second-round loss at the US Open. I do like Kudermetova, who has already beaten Osaka in straight sets earlier this year, in this section at +800.
There’s one more first-round match yet to be played in Tokyo, and that’s the one between Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina and Liudmila Samsonova, who was on a 13-match winning streak this American hard-court swing. Both these players could easily go all the way. However, I don't like either at their current odds, and the schedule does not work in their favor. When starting their first-round match, Garbiñe Muguruza will already have finished her second-rounder. Provided the Spaniard beats Despina Papamichail, the No. 3 seed will have an extra day off before facing either Rybakina, Samsonova, or Wang Xinyu. I’ve been opposing Muguruza in draws all year long, but after opening up about her feelings after another first-round loss at Wimbledon, the two-time Grand Slam champion has improved again in New York. Oddsmakers had been pricing Muguruza among the tournament favorites for too long, but she’s now only the 11th favorite with seventeen players left in the draw. That being said, I’m finally ready to side with the former world No. 1 again.
The clear tournament favorite is sitting at the bottom of the draw as Caroline Garcia is looking to continue her strong second half of the season. Frankly, I just don’t see value in the Frenchwoman at +400. Her form does look as reliable as one can imagine, but all the years of inconsistency are still in the back of my mind. Zhang Shuai and Karolína Plíšková, who’s also back in form, are no pushovers, so that number on Garcia is way too low for my liking. Therefore, I’m sticking to Veronika Kudermetova and Garbiñe Muguruza as my two outright picks for the WTA 500 event in Tokyo.
WTA Tokyo outright picks:
- 0.75u on Veronika Kudermetova (+800 with BetOnline)
0.5u on Garbiñe Muguruza (+1800 with BetOnline)