WTA 125k Bucharest
Bettors begging Begu in Bucharest
I am not sure what I’m missing in the match between Kateryna Baindl and Irina-Camelia Begu at the WTA 125k event in Bucharest. Sure, the hometown player should be a sizeable favorite. However, the line went absolutely crazy earlier today, to the point that Baindl was a bigger than +1000 underdog across multiple books. Unfortunately, you had to be quick to get these numbers, but I still see value in the current line, especially on the games handicap.
All four of their previous meetings have been played on hard courts, but it’s still worth a mention that they split victories with Baindl winning the two most recent head-to-heads. Baindl has won 60% of her matches on clay over the course of her career, making this her best surface when it comes to pure winning percentage – even though she possesses more of an all-court game. Begu also thrives on slow clay courts, but even factoring in crowd support, I have her closer to 75% than the suggested 85% by the oddsmakers.
WTA 125k Bucharest picks:
- 0.5u on Kateryna Baindl ML (+475 with Caesars)
- 1u on Kateryna Baindl +5.5 games (+104 with Pinnacle)
WTA Chennai
High hopes for Hibino in heat and humidity
Hats off to you if you predicted either Katie Swan or Nao Hibino to make the semifinals in Chennai. While Swan capitalized on a minor injury of her second-round opponent Anastasia Gasanova and the Russian taking out top seed Alison Riske-Amritraj in round one, Hibino convincingly beat Jana Fett and Wang Qiang to reach the quarterfinals.
After a rough 2021, when she only won 25% of her matches, Hibino has turned the ship around this year. The former world No. 56 is getting closer to her best again and has beaten quality opponents such as Wang Qiang (twice) and Barbora Krejčíková this summer. Seven of her 10 career titles across all tours came on hard courts, her preferred surface. While Swan is also getting more solid, I still make Hibino a decent favorite in this matchup. The Japanese leads Swan in Elo ratings, both overall and on hard courts, and is more experienced in these conditions as it will be another hot and humid day in India. I have Hibino winning this match right around 60% of the time, so I’d bet her down to -140.
Bet for WTA Chennai:
- 1u on Nao Hibino ML (-122 with Pinnacle)
WTA Portoroz
Patchy play in Portorož
Another quick pick from Portorož, home of the second WTA 250 event of the week, where Kateřina Siniaková takes on Jasmine Paolini in the last quarterfinal of the day. Siniaková is arguably the more talented player of the two. However, inconsistency has been the only consistent companion throughout her (singles) career. If the Czech finds her A-game she can beat almost anyone, but most of the time this won’t last for the entirety of a match. Against a gritty player like Paolini, this calls for a back and forth kind of match. No matter who wins the first set, I wouldn’t give up on the other player and in these situations, I like the over 2.5 sets option at +135 or bigger. Siniaková has the ability to redline for a set, but Paolini will always stick around, waiting for her chances.
Bet for WTA Portorož:
- 1u on Over 2.5 sets in Siniaková vs. Paolini (+148 with Pinnacle)