Matthew Stafford took a knee on the final play of SBLVI nearly seven months ago. Immediately following that final snap, I began scrolling all of my sportsbooks looking for the best bets with tremendous payouts. Roughly 200 days later, I have generated my top four bold plays for the upcoming NFL season. This list consists of bets that I have personally made, and that I expect to cash. Okay, well maybe not all of them, but hopefully one or two. You can view my betting history here.

1. Matt Lafleur will win Coach of the Year +2500 (DraftKings)

Full disclosure, I made this bet last season and lost. Lafleur was in the mix the entire year for this award. If it wasn't for the amazing run the Titans went on after the Henry injury, I truly believe I would have cashed. I’m not taking anything away from Coach Vrabel. He did a tremendous job with the loss of his workhorse, and deserved the award.

Coach of the Year is about results and narrative. Coach Lafleur has had the results, but maybe has lacked the feel-good story to put him over the top. With the loss of Davante Adams, Lafleur now has the opportunity to shift the Packers into a run-heavy team, and change the narrative that he only wins because he has been blessed with Aaron Rodgers. The Packers have two great backs in Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. The offensive line remains somewhat a question mark, but with the return of David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins I believe they will sort out their issues.

Lafleur comes into this season with a 39-10 career regular season record as head coach; pretty impressive. He has put together 13-win seasons in each of his first three years as head coach. If he manages to repeat that feat this season, it will be hard for the voters not to write down his name on the ballot. At 25-1 Lafleur has tremendous value, and this is the year the bet finally cashes.

2. Justin Herbert will win MVP +1000 (DraftKings)

Justin Herbert will be entering his third season in the NFL and he is already considered to be one of the best quarterbacks in the game. Last season, the 2020 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year threw for over 5000 yards (65.9 completion %), 35 TDs and 15 INTs. If he can match those totals and manage to cut down on his interceptions, he will be in the running for the MVP this year.

However, in order to win, he must accomplish something he failed to do last season: get his team into the playoffs. Many are expecting the AFC West to be the best division in football from top-to-bottom, with no easy wins. Last season the Chargers finished 9-8, with a disappointing 3-3 divisional record. In Week 3, Herbert led the team to a massive win in Kansas City. He threw for 281 yards, along with 4 TDs and no interceptions. In the fourth quarter he made tough throw after tough throw on fourth downs to lead the Chargers to victory. This season Herbert will need more of the same. I am expecting the Chargers to have an 11-win season, and their first division title in the Patrick Mahommes era. At +1000, I am very comfortable taking Herbert to win the MVP.

3. Chargers, Ravens, Colts, Packers, Bills - Division Parlay 33-1

Every year I like to parlay a bunch of the division winners. This parlay is admittedly not the easiest to hit, but it's fun, and makes most games meaningful for me throughout the year. Last year I hit four of five, with the Carson Wentz-led Colts the only team to let me down. Rooting for Wentz is no easy task, and I don’t plan on repeating that mistake again this season.

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The biggest dog in my parlay are the Chargers at +225. I do not buy into the hype both Denver and Las Vegas have received with their offseason acquisitions, and am down on the Chiefs in comparison to recent seasons. The loss of Tyreek Hill will be felt more than most suspect, and the AFC West is there for the taking. Expect Herbert to take another step forward and solidify himself as a top-five QB in the league.

The Ravens are currently +160 to win the AFC North, and I love that number. With a healthy Lamar, and an improved defense, the Ravens are the class of the division. I know Burrow and the Bengals went on one hell of a run last year, but I am not expecting a repeat. The Steelers aren't in the conversation, and the Browns have too many distractions. As long as Lamar stays healthy, the Ravens run away with this division.

The Colts have been the betting favorites in the AFC South since the acquisition of Matt Ryan. He provides some stability to a team that just needs a sturdy game manager. Give the ball to Jonathan Taylor, and let him do the rest. The Texans will once again be dreadful, and although the Jaguars will be improved, it’s still too early in the rebuild for them to be contending for the division. The only team that can upset the Colts are the Titans. With the loss of AJ Brown, Tennessee will take a step backwards. At -120, I’ll take the Colts all day long.

The NFC North will be a two-team battle this season. The Bears have regressed, and the Lions are still the Lions. The Vikings have moved on from Mike Zimmer, and all signs point to a more pass-heavy offense. Expect Justin Jefferson to get a ton of looks this season. However, the Vikings defense will continue to be suspect, and is what will hold this team back from any championship aspirations. The Pack still have four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers, and that automatically makes them favorites in the division. The loss of star wideout Davante Adams will hurt, but the Packers can morph their offense into a run-happy, play-action machine. The one-two punch of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon is a dangerous threat. Also, expect the Packers defense to have the best secondary in the league. This might just be Jaire Alexander’s year to claim the title of league's top cornerback. What has been a liability in the past will be a strength this season. The Packers will once again finish with 13 wins.

The Bills are the most expensive leg in this parlay at -220. The season-ending loss to the Chiefs last season was both incredible and sickening. Expect this team to be on a mission all year. The Dolphins are the biggest threat to the Bills repeating as AFC East champs. With a 1-2 combination of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, Tua Tagovailoa will have no excuses this season. I believe the Dolphins make the playoffs, but finish a few games behind the Bills. The Patriots are a bit of a wildcard, and I am not sure what to expect from them this season. After the Bills absolutely lit them up in the playoffs last year, I feel like they are more pretender than contender. As for the Jets…no.

4. The Green Bay Packers will win Super Bowl LVII +1200 (PowerPlay)

This team has squandered opportunities to reach the big game in each of the last 3 seasons. So why will this year be any different?

Something has to give. This team is just too talented to miss out on another championship opportunity. The only perceivable weakness is the wide receiver unit. Davante Adams was traded to the Las Vegas Raiders in the off-season for draft capitol; leaving the Packers susceptible in the passing game. Or are they?

In the last three seasons, the Green Bay Packers went 7-0 without Adams. Insane, right? In those games Aaron Rodgers threw for 19 TDs and only one INT, averaging 293 passing yards per game while completing 69% of his passes. It doesn't sound like Aaron was missing Davante too badly.

While the first few weeks of the season will be an adjustment period for the offense, there’s too much talent there for them not to hit their stride. Expect to see both Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon heavily utilized in the passing game. Early reports also suggest that both players have been on the field at the same time for many plays; something for us to watch for in the upcoming season. The forgotten link is Robert Tonyan. He went down last season in Week 8 at Arizona. Expect a lot of play-action and red zone looks to feature the 6-foot-5 tight end. He could be in for a career year.

On the other side of the ball, this defense will be a top-five unit this year…book it. Jaire Alexander and Eric Stokes make for the best cornerback duo in the league, and when you add Rasul Douglas to the mix, it’s impossible not to be excited about this team's potential. Adrian Amos and Darnell Savage round out the secondary at the safety positions, making this the top unit in the league. If nose tackle Kenny Clark and the rest of the defensive-line can hold up their end of the bargain, look out.

The biggest question mark surrounding the Packers is the offensive line. David Bakhtiari is finally back on the active roster and Elgton Jenkins should be back to his old self as a dominant force up front. If the rest of the line can fall into place, it will go a long way to helping the Packers’ championship hopes.

With Aaron Rodgers behind center, this team always has a chance. When you factor in the talent surrounding him, the Packers become an instant favorite. This is the year that Rodgers finally wins his second Super Bowl ring.

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