Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros

3:37pm EST

Probable Pitchers: Luis Castillo vs. Framber Valdez

The MLB Playoffs are in full swing, and so far the games have been nothing short of entertaining. The American League had an off-day yesterday to make sure we had baseball every day while the National League teams have a travel day today. The extra day off gives bullpens an extra rest, and everyone should be available to work today when called upon.

The Mariners got a taste of their own medicine on Tuesday. After mounting their epic comeback against the Blue Jays to get to where they are now, they let the Astros rally to walk them off in a game they lead until the last pitch of the game. Yordan Alvarez absolutely demolished a walk off 3-run bomb to give the Astros the 8-7 victory, so Seattle comes in here with a sense of urgency today to even the series and bring it home tied 1-1.

They have the right guy lined up to get behind, and I believe Luis Castillo gives them their best chance in winning. Castillo has been everything that the Mariners have needed since they traded for him earlier in the year, and comes into this one with a 2.99 ERA, and a strikeout percentage of 29%. He will need that swing and miss stuff to keep the Astros bat’s at bay, and with a fully rested bullpen behind him, runs should be at a premium today.

Framber Valdez gets the call for the Astros, and he has been a tough task for everyone all season long. He has an ERA slightly lower than Castillo sitting at 2.82, and also carries a decent strikeout rate of 23.5%. He has been magnificent at inducing ground balls, and while Seattle has gotten to him a bit in the past this season, he does a good job at limiting the damage and keeping his team in games. Houston also has the advantage of a rested bullpen, and another off day tomorrow. So at the first signs of trouble, don’t be surprised to see managers going to their bullpens early and often.

I give a slight edge to the Mariners pitching, both starting and bullpen, but the Astros do have the lineup advantage. I make the Astros a much shorter favorite than the market indicates, and this has the makeup of a 2-1, 3-2 kind of game. I will take my shot here on the Mariners at a nice +money price, while also playing the under while it’s on one of the MLB total key numbers of 7.

Best bets:

Mariners (+143) (Heritage)
Under 7 (-120) (Bookmaker)

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