In this week's episode of 90 Degrees, Kevin Davis hosts Sean Zerillo from the Action Network. Sean is a writer for the Action Network whose work focuses on MLB and MMA modelling.
To kick off the episode, Kevin Davis introduces our guest Sean Zerillo, and immediately we get into Sean’s history of sports betting, how he got into writing for the action network, and what his occupation was before he got into sports betting content. The conversation moves to modelling as Sean outlines his baseball modelling process as well as modelling Korean and Taiwanese baseball during the pandemic. From there, we get into a more nuanced discussion about weighing inputs into a model and how to deal with priors in baseball when there are rule changes that may affect those priors. The topic shifts from baseball to MMA, where Sean outlines his unique process and input data that he uses to model MMA. They also get into some betting angles, like the MMA prop market.
Join host Kevin Davis on 90 Degrees as he brings on guests to discuss the right betting angles in sports every Friday morning.
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Show Index:
00:00 Introduction and overview of Sean Zerillo’s history in sports betting
04:20 Modelling MLB, Korean baseball and Taiwanese baseball
18:20 Modelling baseball and weighing inputs
24:43 Modelling MMA and weighing public percentages
30:47 Market makers in MMA
33:10 Discussing nuance in inputs for Sean’s model
40:00 Advantages in prop markets in MMA and typical limits in these markets
