The race for the NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year Award is always an exciting one that is usually comes down to the wire. Although, there are most definitely some notable things that happen throughout the course of a season which have an impact on the outcome of this award.
First, trades and/or coaching decisions: if a team shakes up their roster throughout the course of the season or a coach decides to adjust his rotations, it naturally has an impact on almost every player’s respective role/minutes. In addition, injuries can affect a bench player’s role and sixth man eligibility: injuries occur during the NBA season and it could unexpectedly force the team’s sixth man to step into a starting role, thus eliminating him from contention for the award. With that being said, let’s evaluate the market for the 2022-23 Sixth Man of the Year Award.
Last season’s winner of the award, Miami Heat Guard Tyler Herro, is the favorite to win this award for a second consecutive season (+520 odds via Bet99). Personally, I do not see value in his line and am fading it for a couple of reasons. First, since 1995, the only player who has gone on to earn this award in consecutive seasons is Lou Williams. That is a notable trend that cannot be taken for granted when evaluating Herro’s market value. Next, it is no secret that Tyler Herro’s name is coming up in trade rumors as the Heat look to upgrade their roster after coming up just one game shy of an NBA Finals appearance last season. If Herro gets traded, chances are he becomes a starter on his new team, which would make him ineligible to earn this award.
The co-favorite to win the 6MOTY award this upcoming season is the most recent addition to the Splash Brothers in Golden State, Jordan Poole (+520 odds via Bet99). Poole would have been my choice for the award last year over Herro and I love his chances of contending for this award yet again. The Warriors will almost certainly continue to give their veterans (Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, Kevon Looney and Andrew Wiggins) maintenance days throughout the season, opening up plenty of minutes/opportunity for Poole to fill a much-needed void off the bench. Poole shattered his previous career-highs in practically every statistic you can think of last season and I think he will only continue to improve. At age 23, Poole is highly motivated being that he is playing for a championship team and looking for a long-term contract extension.
My sleeper pick to win the 6MOTY this coming season is Atlanta Hawks Guard/Forward, Bogdan Bogdanovic (+2500 odds via Power Play). The Hawks acquired a new backcourt running mate for Trae Young by trading for Dejounte Murray from San Antonio, moving Bogdanovic to the bench. While the Hawks boast one of the better starting lineups in the NBA, their bench leaves a lot to be desired after losing both Kevin Huerter and Danilo Gallinari this offseason. The departures of both Huerter and Gallinari open up nearly 20 field goal attempts per game, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Bogdanovic be the main beneficiary of those extra opportunities.