First, last Friday’s Keeneland results.
Race 1. $2 W-P-S on 6 RESULT 2-6-5-8 **PAID $5.66**
Race 3. $2 W-P-S on 2 RESULT 8-2-9-3 **PAID $10.24**
Race 5. $1 Exacta 9/1,3-5,12,13 RESULT 5-11-10-12
Race 6. $10 Double 4/6 RESULT 2/6
Race 8. 50 cent Trifecta 5/1,6,7,9/1,3,6-9,11 RESULT 9-1-11-8
A disappointing $15.90 on my $40 investment for the day. That is the bad news. The good news is that it is a new day. Breeders’ Cup Friday in fact! For Future Stars Friday, I am going to handicap all the Grade 1 Stakes. As a bonus, I have an early Pick 3 ending with race 5 (a Grade 2 stakes race) primed to hit. My goal is to keep the budget under $100 for the day, as tomorrow has the potential to be more costly.
In this week's episode of 90 Degrees, Kevin Davis hosts Vegas Horse Pools. VegasHorsePools is a longtime friend of Kevin and works for SpankOdds, among other ventures.
The greatest two days of gambling are finally here! There is nothing like the Breeders’ Cup. Featuring fourteen Grade 1 races over two days, we have no better opportunity to get a fair–or even inflated–price on some of the best racehorses in the world. First post today in Lexington is at 11:55 a.m. ET.
Race 3. I like the morning line favorite 11 Marsalis in this spot. He is the class of the race and projects to be on the lead. Out of Curlin and trained by Steve Asmussen, his record coming into today is 3-1-2-0. Expecting a short price, I am going to single him in the first leg of a Pick 3 so I can spread some in races 4 and 5, hoping to catch a longshot and a decent score leading into the main event of the weekend.
Bet: 50 cent Pick 3 11/2,8-12/1,2,4,9,10 $15 total
Race 5. This 13 furlong marathon on dirt, rather than grass, has my handicapping skills twisted in knots. However, there are a few horses entered here that I will consider placing win bets on. 1 Rattle N Roll is the morning line favorite at 5-2, but I really want odds of 7-2 or 4-1 to lay my money down. He is 5-for-13 lifetime with another 3 in the money. As far as competition goes, he has faced equal to today's field. A horse I like underneath if you are playing exotics is 5 Sheriff Brown, who projects to be sitting well off the pace, but is a winner last time out and has been in the money in 18 of 29 races. A big jockey upgrade to Florent Geroux has me excited and makes this 6-year-old gelding an interesting play to blow up the exotics. 9 Win the Day keeps jockey Umberto Rispoli who has been in the irons the last two, both place efforts. He looks like he wants every bit of today’s distance.
Bet: $2 Across the board on 9 $6 total
Race 6. If I can get 4-1 or better on Irad Ortiz, Jr. sitting on a Wesley Ward horse, sign me up! There are other reasons to like the Irish import 2 Love Reigns, like the 2-for-3 lifetime record and the company faced in those races. Can he win sitting off the pace? I believe Irad has been signed on as the rider for this very scenario. The other horse I am looking at here is 10 Tyler’s Tribe, who comes in undefeated. The knock on him would be that he might get pressed and soften up for the trailers to catch him down the stretch. Honestly, he has faced stiff enough competition that a win bet may be warranted at double-digit odds. My fear is that he will get over-bet due to public interest in the story behind his name.
Bet: $1 Exacta key box 2/3,5-7,10,11 $12 total
Race 7. My top choice in this spot is 8 Atomically. This Todd Pletcher trainee picks up Luis Saez and the breeding suggests this is her best distance and surface. I also like 5 Wonder Wheel who drew a great post and should vie for the early lead. Looking for a price horse here? Look no further than 9 Grand Love, a bay out of Gun Runner and trained by Steve Asmussen, who knows a thing or two about dirt racing.
Bet: $1 Exacta box 5,8,9 $6 total
Race 8. Going back to Irad here. I have 5 Pleasant Passage as the class of this field, having faced the toughest fields, and she projects to be on or near the lead. She has won both career starts, both at 8.5 furlongs, but I think she will benefit slightly from the cutback. A handful of bullet works leading up to this spot as well. I have heard a lot of buzz being generated around 13 Xigera, who has hit the board in all three career starts and sits at 8-1 on the morning line. I am not necessarily against her, but the pace projection looks to be slow, and I do not think she can get as near the pace as she needs to be at the first or second call from that outside post position. I am more inclined to favor 9 Delight, another who projects to be forwardly placed with a post position inside Xigera, and the combination of trainer Jonathan Thomas and jockey Luis Saez hit at a 34% clip with a sample size of 38 races.
Bet: $1 Exacta key box 5/4,9-11 $8 total
Race 9. There is a lot of talk coming into this race around 7 Cave Rock being the most likely winner of the weekend. I am more interested in the other Bob Baffert entry, 10 National Treasure. Here is the thing: jockey Joe Talamo and 1 Hurricane J is going to straight send from the rail. That is his only chance to win, even though I make that chance slim. A pressed Cave Rock could be vulnerable coming into the stretch, and National Treasure under jockey John Velazquez, and with blinkers back on, will get first crack. I also believe that 6 Blazing Sevens, under jockey Flavien Prat, can work out a trip and be in position to close from the back of the pack if there is a pace meltdown.
Bet: 50 cent Trifecta 3,10/3-6,10/3-6,8,10 $16 total
Race 10. Steely Dan fans, rejoice! 13 Major Dude retains jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. after riding him to the winner’s circle last month at Belmont at the Big A. He started his career on dirt, and after three races trainer Todd Pletcher tried him on the grass, and he took to the surface well. “Money” Mike Smith ships in from the West Coast to ride 2 Packs a Wahlop, a gray sporting a 3-for-4 record. The pace projection sets up nicely for him to get his preferred trip right off the pace. Morning line favorite 4 Silver Knott must be included in all verticals and horizontals with the trainer/jockey combo of Charles Appleby and Bill Buick.
Bet: $1 Exacta box 2,4,13 $6 total
Total investment for today comes to $69. As always, I encourage you to use my analysis and picks in conjunction with your own handicapping to inform your opinions. And most importantly: best of luck playing the races! Be sure to check back tomorrow for Championship Saturday picks.