The PGA Tour heads to Bermuda this week for its next stop on the fall swing at Port Royal Golf Club. While the field at the CJ Cup this past week featured 17 of the top-25 golfers on Tour in OWGR, we are in for a far weaker field this week, featuring just four golfers ranked inside the OWGR top-100. The ‘Butterfield Bermuda Championship’.
Extreme Weather Conditions at ‘Port Royal GC’
Port Royal Golf Club sits right on Bermuda’s coastline, and is best known for its unbelievably scenic views of the Atlantic. However, with its beauty also comes extreme weather conditions that are very difficult to play through. In fact, the wind speed plays more of a factor at Port Royal than at any other course on the PGA Tour’s schedule. This week, Bermuda’s weather forecast predicts anywhere between 20 to 25 MPH winds, with a possible chance of scattered thunderstorms throughout the week.
The course at Port Royal Golf Club plays as one of the shortest on the PGA Tour schedule, so when the winds aren't quite as hectic, it presents a number of ‘Birdie or Better’ opportunities. However, the extreme weather conditions are often very volatile, so while one part of a round may bring relatively calm conditions, it can change at the ‘drop of a hat’. Given the harsh weather conditions at Port Royal, the cut-line at the ‘Bermuda Championship typically sits around even PAR, or one-stroke under.
A Robert Trent Jones-design, the course at Port Royal Golf Club plays at just about 6830 yards, and is a par-71. For some context, in comparison to every other course played on Tour, the Bermuda course ranks as the second-shortest behind just TPC River Highlands which hosts the Travelers Championship annually in Cromwell, Connecticut. While Port Royal is designed to favor short-game specialists, its excessive wind speeds often benefits longer-hitters due to high wind speeds carrying the golf ball even further. Over the last few years, there has been a direct, positive correlation between high wind-speeds and ‘Driving Distance’. The course at Port Royal GC features four par-3s, 11 par-4s, and three par-5s, often placing an emphasis on both par-4, and par-5 scoring.
Key Stats & Ideal Golfer Profile
As aforementioned, both ‘Driving Distance’ and ‘Driving Accuracy’ metrics will hold considerable weight relative to a player’s ability to find success at the course at Port Royal Golf Club. That said, above all else, being able to gain strokes from Tee-to-Green (SG: T2G) is far-and-away the most significant efficiency metric heading into the ‘Butterfield Bermuda Championship’ this week. Moreover, we should also look for golfers who are able to consistently gain with the flat-stick (SG: PUTT), particularly on Bermudagrass greens.
Likewise, tremendous ball-strikers have also thrived at Port Royal GC in the past, so as with most other courses on the PGA Tour schedule, gaining strokes on Approach (SG: APP) paired with an elite short-game is a necessary skill set to playing well in Bermuda this week. That said, gaining strokes around-the-green (SG: ARG) should certainly be taken into consideration as one of the most significant key stats relative to finding success in Bermuda this week.
Given Port Royal’s 11 par-4s, many of which are sub-400 yards, there are plenty of birdie-making opportunities, so we must also look for golfers who rank well in: Good Drives Gained, Opportunities Gained, and Par-4 Scoring.
Bermuda Championship DFS Outlook
Core Players:
SH Kim (9.6k)-
The 24-year-old Kim Seong-hyeon (SH Kim) enters the ‘Butterfield Bermuda Championship’ in unbelievable form having finished inside the top-15 in six of his last eight starts. Kim finished 13th at the ‘Sanderson Farms Championship’ in just his second start on the PGA Tour, and followed that up with an even better performance at the ‘Shriners Children’s Open’ where he shot a 65, 69, 64, and a 66 in his final round to finish fourth, not far behind his South Korean-brethren, Tom Kim.
In spite of a few bad rounds on approach, SH Kim is gaining in every other statistical category, notably ranking inside the top-20 on Tour with the flat-stick gaining just under 0.9 strokes on average over his last 36 rounds on bermudagrass greens. SH Kim has also been consistently gaining both off-the-tee (SG: OTT), and from tee-to-green (SG: T2G). After a subpar performance last week in South Carolina at the CJ Cup, I expect SH Kim to bounce-back in a big way this week in Bermuda in a considerably weaker field.
Stephan Jaeger (9.3k)-
One of two Germans on Tour, Jaeger comes into Bermuda in excellent form. Not only does Stephan consistently gain from both off-the-tee (SG:OTT), and tee-to-green (SG: T2G), he ranks inside the top-25 on the PGA Tour in driving distance over his last 36 measured rounds. In addition to the German’s “BOMBER” reputation, he also excels with the flat-stick, and performs particularly well on bermudagrass greens. Also, has gained just about 0.75 strokes on average per round thus far this season, ranking second in the field, and 11th overall on the PGA Tour.
Not only does Jaeger pop in my model as one of the best value plays on the DFS slate, he ranks in my model as a top-5 golfer in the entire field, and I will certainly be looking to play him in a number of betting markets as well.
Robbie Shelton (9.1k)-
After gaining substantial recognition last season on the Korn Ferry Tour, following up a second place finish at the ‘Price Cutter Charity Championship’ with a win at the ‘Pinnacle Bank Championship’. Shelton made his PGA Tour debut at the start of September, with an impressive top-20 finish at the ‘Fortinet Championship’. After a rather disappointing start at the ‘Sanderson Farms Championship’ where he finished outside the top-60, he quickly got back on track two weeks ago shooting a 63 in his Friday round at the ‘Shriners Children's Open’ on his way to a 15th-place finish.
The 27-year-old Alabama-grad is off to a scorching start to begin his first PGA Fall swing, ranking in the top-65 in every single strokes-gained metric. Shelton’s short-game is elite, gaining roughly 0.45 strokes per round on average around-the-green (SG: ATG), and with the putter (SG: PUTT). Shelton often catches fire with the flat-stick, especially on bermudagrass greens where he is an even better putter. At 9.1k, I expect very minimal ownership to get to Shelton with so many more notable names surrounding him. While Shelton is not particularly long off-the-tee, there have been any prior instances at Port Royal GC where an elite short-game skillset has outweighed a lack of strokes gained from tee-to-green, which is very evident through Brian Gay a number of other short-game specialists who have thrived in Bermuda in the past.
Callum Tarren (8.2k)-
At 8.2k, Callum Tarren may have more DFS value than any other golfer in the field. After an extremely impressive run on the Korn Ferry Tour at the start of last season, the 32-year-old Brit was given several opportunities to play on the PGA Tour schedule over a number of events featuring rather weaker fields. In such instances, Tarren did not disappoint, recording three Top-7 finishes, including: fifth at the ‘Puerto Rico Open’, sixth at the ‘John Deere Classic’ and seventh at the 3M Open.
Despite a number of very inconsistent statistical performances from tee-to-green, which many may find problematic heading into the Bermuda Championship, Tarren ranks in the top-50 on Tour in driving distance, and is very elite with the flat-stick. Over his last 36 measured rounds, the Brit ranks 26th with the putter, gaining over 0.7 strokes on average per round. Upon a deeper dive into Callum’s putting stats, he excels on bermudagrass greens, ranking 18th on the Tour relative to strokes-gained with the flat-stick on bermuda. While his driving efficiency metrics don't pop off the page, I expect him to make up with that with his distance and accuracy off-the-tee, but even more so his ability to consistently gain with the flat-stick on bermuda. Although I won't be looking Tarren’s way in outright betting markets, his 8.2k price on DraftKings DFS is way too low, he will definitely be in my player pool, and put into a number of lineups for the ‘Butterfield Bermuda Championship’.
DFS Value Plays- Honorable Mention:
Will Gordon (8.6k)
Chesson Hadley (7.6k)