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CFB Championship Week betting preview

Grayson McCall

The last week of the regular brought chaos with College Football playoff hopefuls going down, such as Ohio State and LSU. With championship week upon us, there are still plenty of scenarios to shake out, and the playoff is far from set. With that being said, let's preview a few championship games and see if any bets can be made.

Conference USA: North Texas vs. UTSA

Champ week kicks off Friday night in Conference USA with North Texas and UTSA. North Texas enters the matchup at 7-5 on the season. Meanwhile, UTSA enters with an impressive 10-2 record. The conference USA championship game should bring fireworks. Both teams have great passing offenses ranking inside the top 25 in yards per attempt through the air. These teams played just over a month ago, and UTSA came away with a narrow 31-27 win. UTSA is currently a consensus favorite of 8.5 points in this game. This game will come down to who can make more stops on defense, the offenses should have plenty of success moving the ball, but a few turnovers or fourth down stops may be the key in this one. North Texas has been dreadful on defense this season. North Texas ranks 120 th in defensive success rate according to cfbgraphs.

Meanwhile, the UTSA Road Runners have a stout defense to go along with their dynamic offense. The Road Runners rank 25 th in defensive success rate this season. I like UTSA to come out on top in this matchup;. At the same time, there is no official bet in this game. I lean toward laying the 8.5 with UTSA, but I will likely play this game live or stay away altogether.

MAC: Toledo vs. Ohio

MACtion concludes in the motor city with the Toledo Rockets and Ohio Bobcats squaring off for the MAC championship. Ohio will be without star quarterback Kurtis Rourke for this matchup after suffering a season-ending knee injury. Meanwhile, Toledo quarterback Dequan Finn is uncertain to play in this matchup. The uncertainty is too much to make a bet on the current line. If Finn plays, the Toledo offense becomes very dynamic with the threat of his legs. Ohio may have a hard time keeping Toledo off the board. To me, the current market suggests that we may not see Finn. When this game opened, there was a large buy to the under, and it continued down to 55. If Finn plays, I will certainly look to add a Toledo position, but at this time, no bet for me. Be aware of buying the under now as well. The market may have already adjusted correctly for all the injuries.

Sun Belt: Coastal Carolina vs. Troy

Stop me if you have heard this before, but there is more quarterback uncertainty. Grayson McCall, who has been out for the past few weeks with an injury, has the potential to suit up for this championship game with Troy. Troy enters this game after a suffocating win over Arkansas State. The defense stepped up and helped an offense that struggled in less-than-ideal weather conditions coming away with a pick 6 en route to a 48-19 victory. Coastal Carolina is coming off a rough 47-7 defeat at the hands of James Madison. I currently have this game lined at Troy -8.38 and a total of 52.35. At the beginning of the week, there was a move to the over from the opener of 46.5. This move could be triggered by the McCall news and others showing an edge. As of now, I do not have a bet on this matchup. I would look to play the over with the potential of McCall coming back. McCall opens the offense for Coastal and will allow them to push the ball and put stress on this Troy defense. The Troy offense should have plenty of success moving the ball against a Coastal Carolina defense that struggles and ranks 96 th in the country in success rate and 103 rd in EPA/play. The over is the look in this game.