Last week the underdog round robin article went 1-2, dropping 1.5 units. After a great first week, the last couple weeks have proven to be a struggle, but this week I had no trouble finding some great value ‘dogs!
Wake Forest ML +210 (FanDuel)
Wake Forest is coming off a heart-breaking double overtime loss to Clemson in Week 4. The Demon Deacons didn’t trail in the second half, but after trading touchdowns in the first overtime, they were unable to score in the second and lost their chance at a big upset. Sam Hartman threw for 330 yards and six touchdowns, as well as no interceptions, against a talented Clemson defense, leading his team to an impressive 45 points. The offense is certainly not in question and will be able to “get theirs” against the Seminoles this week. The defense leaves a lot to be desired though, especially struggling the past two weeks against Liberty and Clemson. Fortunately for Wake, Hartman and the offense are good enough to bail the defense out and keep it in most games.
There’s no denying Florida State is improved this year, but I haven’t seen enough to make the Seminoles nearly touchdown favorites here, either. The LSU game was a huge win to start the season, but even there Florida State made countless mistakes down the stretch and were fortunate LSU missed a PAT with no time on the clock to come away with a 24-23 victory. Louisville gave the Seminoles a run in Week 3 and backup quarterback Tate Rodemaker was able to propel them to a 35-31 comeback victory in the second half.
I expect this to be a high-scoring shootout and I think the Demon Deacons have the offensive firepower to give the Seminoles a tough test here. There’s high variability in a high total game like this, so give me Hartman and this offense off a heartbreaking loss with just 30% implied odds any day of the week.
Virginia ML +120 (FanDuel)
Virginia’s offense has looked horrid through four weeks of the season. On the surface, its struggles may come as a surprise - three-year starter Brennan Armstrong threw for 4,500 yards on 31 touchdowns and 10 interceptions a year ago and the receivers around him are very talented. However, the reason for this year’s woes is quite simple – the Cavaliers’ offensive line is terrible. They lost basically all of last year’s production and have struggled immensely protecting Armstrong early in the season. In their two losses this year, against Illinois and Syracuse, Armstrong has been sacked nine times. The defense under new coordinator John Rudzinsky looks much improved, but unfortunately the offense hasn’t given them much support so far this season.
Fortunately for the Cavs, in Duke’s three FBS games this year they have only tallied four total sacks, which should mean that Armstrong will get a little more breathing room in Week 5. Duke seems to have taken a big step up this year under new head coach Mike Elko, but are being overvalued in the market here. The Blue Devils did just put up 463 yards against a Kansas team that is also climbing power rankings, but more than half those yards came in the fourth quarter when they were trailing by 15 points with Kansas’ defense in prevent. Outside of Kansas, the only other half-decent team the Blue Devils played was Northwestern, who they beat 31-23 despite giving up 511 yards to the Wildcats – outgained by 50. I have no faith in this Duke defense which has looked very poor despite facing an easy schedule.
Armstrong and the offense will finally get a shot at an exposable defense here, while the improved Virginia defense should be able to keep Duke in check enough to get the win here. The Cavs’ offensive line will only improve as they get their reps in. Anything at plus money is a steal in this one. I think Virginia wins this one by over a possession and likely covers any team total over number that’s widely available.
Miami (Ohio) ML +100 (FanDuel)
We’re backing a shorter dog in the final leg, going back to the well in fading Buffalo for a third week in a row. Miami lost quarterback Brett Gabbert in Week 1 and its passing game has been very poor in his absence, with third-year “freshman” Aveon Smith struggling mightily under center. He has thrown for just 330 yards in the last three games, but fortunately for the RedHawks, the ground game has made up for their passing woes. They’ve rushed for nearly 500 yards in three games without Gabbert and were able to upset Northwestern on the road last week despite throwing for only 62 yards. Special teams and defense will keep the RedBirds in contention for the conference title without Gabbert, even if Smith is unable to improve at quarterback.
Buffalo put up an impressive offensive showing in Week 4, beating Eastern Michigan 50-31 for its first win of the season. The first punt of the game for either team was halfway through the third quarter in a contest where defense was optional. Eastern Michigan has shown its inability on defense several times this season, allowing a struggling Louisiana team to score 49 points in the second half in their Week 2 matchup. Miami’s defense will be a much tougher matchup for a Buffalo team that fell to FCS Holy Cross just a couple weeks ago, while its offense will generate enough against a poor Buffalo defense to win this game.
Best bets:
- Wake Forest ML +210 (FanDuel) 1 unit
- Virginia ML +120 (FanDuel) 1 unit
- Miami Ohio ML +100 (FanDuel) 1 unit
- Round robin (3x2, 1x3) 0.2 units each