Last week’s underdog round robin went 1-2, with the lone winner being Wake Forest ML at +210. The straight picks profited thanks to Wake, but the round robin legs fell short as both Virginia and Miami (Ohio) lost. This week features three new underdogs, all +145 or better.
Fresno State ML +265 (FanDuel)
Believe me when I say betting on Fresno, a week removed from an ugly loss to UConn, was not something I was looking forward to in Week 6. However, the number here is way too good to pass up. Fresno State quarterback Jake Haener was injured in Week 4 and will miss some time, leaving inexperienced Logan Fife to lead this Fresno State offense. Fife filled in beautifully against USC after Haener went down – a position I’m sure he didn’t expect to be in – and he threw for 140 yards on 11-12 passing against the Trojans. Last week, in his first career start, he threw for only 157 yards on 16-22 passing and had two interceptions. Fife is obviously a step down from Haener, but with a start under his belt and another week of practice with the first team, I think it’s reasonable to expect him to play better this week.
Boise State has had some quarterback troubles of its own. Three-year starter Hank Bachmeier announced a couple weeks ago he would be transferring from the program, leaving Taylen Green and Sam Vidlak to split quarterbacking roles. Green has shown tremendous ability on the ground but threw for just 48 yards on 10 attempts against San Diego State last weekend. Vidlak is much less of a threat on the ground, and still only threw for 86 yards on 12 attempts in Week 5. I am not a fan of the split quarterback setup and I think the Fresno defense will be able to contain Green on the ground and limit the big plays.
This is a great buy-low on Fresno after last week, while Boise beating a pretty poor San Diego State team in Week 5 has done nothing to convince me that Bachmeier was the full issue with this offense. This price is way too long. I played Fresno on the spread and like the moneyline a lot.
Iowa ML +145 (DraftKings)
Another ugly dog this week that I can’t help but love are the Iowa Hawkeyes. The offense is not good in any sense of the word, but this defense is very good and held an explosive Michigan offense to just 327 yards in the Hawkeyes’ 27-14 Week 5 loss. Quarterback Spencer Petras is a three-year starter and put together a couple nice drives in the second half against Michigan. The offense is capable under Petras, and the truth is they really don’t have to do much. The defense will keep Iowa in this game and if the offense can finish off a couple drives, it will win.
Illinois has surprised me so far this year. The Indiana loss was poor, but the Illini were able to obliterate the Virginia offensive line, while their defense alo looked incredible in last week’s 34-10 win over Wisconsin. Head Coach Bret Bielema took care of the Badgers in his return to Madison and the team looked great, but they still only gained 300 yards despite putting up 34 points. I think this offense is in for a rude awakening against Iowa and I expect points to be at a premium here.
In what I expect to be a low scoring and very close game, getting 40% implied odds on Iowa is a great price.
BYU ML +150 (DraftKings)
BYU presents another good buy spot in the market, even though it’s 4-1. The Cougars are 2-1 in the last three weeks but are 0-3 against the spread and have failed to cover by a combined 39 points. The market is starting to cool off on BYU and as a result my model is showing value on it for the first time all season. The defense has been a huge problem the past few weeks for the Cougars and a huge contributor to that has been the nearly 300 yards in penalties they’ve accrued since Week 3. At the end of the day, I think you can count on the BYU offense to put up points in this one and if the defense can do their part, BYU will have a great chance to win this one.
It's crazy to me that in Week 3 everyone was running to the counter to bet Cal +11 against this Notre Dame team off a loss to Marshall, and now the Irish are favored by over a field goal at a neutral site against a much better team. Fill-in quarterback Drew Pyne now has a couple starts under his belt, but I believe way too much weight is being put on the Irish’s offensive performance against North Carolina. The Tarheels have shown an inability to stop anyone week after week and I’m not convinced this Irish offense is any better than they were against Marshall and Cal.
Notre Dame is certainly getting a bump for having a bye last week, but BYU played last Thursday and have had some extra rest days of its own. Look for the Cougars’ offense to outpace Drew Pyne and an Irish attack that averaged just 18.3 points per game in the first three weeks.
Best Bets:
- Fresno State ML +265 (FanDuel) *1 unit
- Iowa ML +145 (DraftKings) *1 unit
- BYU ML +150 (DraftKings) *1 unit
- Round Robin (3x2, 1x3 ) *0.2 units each