We started the week 1-1 after the Miami Dolphins failed to keep it close down the stretch of their Thursday Night Football matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals. Teddy Bridgewater threw a late pick that all but sealed the game, coming in for an injured Tua Tagoivaloa following a brutal sack that ultimately ended his night. Prayers up to Tua, who had seemingly turned a corner and was in the midst of a tremendous bounceback season. Tyreek Hill clutched up for us, torching the Bengals secondary for 10 catches and 160 yards - the easiest money we’ve made all season.
Chiefs @ Buccaneers
On Sunday night we have two of the best quarterbacks in the game matching up, so it only makes sense we have some fun and find some edges for them. Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs travel to Tampa to take on the Bucs and Tom Brady. The game almost had to be rescheduled due to Hurricane Ian, but the weather on Sunday is supposed to be nothing but sunny and hot - a quarterback haven.
We have a nice little rematch of Super Bowl LV here, where Mahomes’ two interceptions sealed the game for the Bucs to be crowned. A little bit of extra motivation for our boy who is up against a small number. Mahomes has gone over 260 pass yards in two of his three contests this year (he’s averaging 285 yards through the air and has never finished a season averaging under 284) and is coming off a loss to the lowly Indianapolis Colts. In 2020, Mahomes averaged 300 yards in the next game coming off a loss and went over the number 11 times throughout the campaign. Take this with a grain of salt, but if you want to rewind to that regular season, the last time Mahomes played the Bucs, he absolutely torched the defense, throwing for 462 and three touchdowns en route to a 27-24 win. Throwing some icing on the cake, Mahomes thrives in night games, owning a 15-7 record with an average of 293 air yards.
Now, I do like the Bucs’ defense, and they’ve allowed only 209 yards per game through the air. However, aside from Aaron Rodgers (who threw for 255 yards), the unit hasn't been battle-tested yet. They bottled up Cooper Rush after coming in for an injured Dak Prescott in Week 1 before doing the same thing to Jameis Winston a week later. The Bucs defense also thrives against the run, ranking in the top five for rushing yards allowed per game, so Mahomes might have to go to the air more often than not. Let’s see if the defense is up for the biggest test of the season. It’s an easy over for me.
Bet: Patrick Mahomes over 260.5 yards (-114 on FanDuel)
On the other side it’s Mr. Brady, whose receiving corps was decimated last week against the Packers. Mike Evans is back, while Chris Godwin and Julio Jones are true gametime decisions. Evans should be enough to get Brady over the number, but if one of the remaining two return, I think it’s another easy over in a game that could end up with some offensive fireworks. Brady is averaging 34 pass attempts per game, which should put him on pace to cover 263.5 yards passing with some healthy weapons. The Chiefs are currently the 15th-ranked pass defense, allowing 227 passing yards per game; the unit ranks 25th in the NFL with seven passing TDs allowed, so if you want to sprinkle a unit on Brady over 1.5 passing touchdowns, you could do worse.
Bet: Tom Brady over 263.5 (-110 on FanDuel)