For each week's Draftkings slate, I will give a chalk and tournament play. I will also provide a player that I am fading as well. Before I go into this week's picks, I will give a little definition of chalk and tournament play.
A chalk pick is a player that will be highly owned across most all contests. Typically, this might be because of a low price, a great situation, or a combination of both. These plays are best for cash games (50/50s and head to heads) but can also be used for tournaments.
Rob Pizzola and Johnny from betstamp sit down with Ken Barkley from You Better You Bet, to discuss working with SVP, Ken's start in the content space, bad beats, finding edges, and awards betting markets.
A tournament or GPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool) are contests that have payouts weighted heavily towards the top. The most famous one is the weekly Millionaire contest that DraftKings has on most NFL slates. Hopefully, we can find a player at smaller ownership, thus increasing the likelihood of a unique lineup and, if the player hits, the potential for a huge payout.
Last Week's Plays
Chalk- Ceedee Lamb- Ceedee Lamb was over 50% owned in double-ups and around 25% in GPPs. He was pure chalk, and he did not do well.
Tournament Play- Rhamondre Stevenson - Rhamondre Stevenson got 14.2 which is not a great day but didn’t kill you either. Still not enough for takedowns in a GPP.
Fade- Devin Singletary - Devin Singletary did better than Stevenson and for almost $1,000 less. However, Singletary still needed to do more to win larger GPPs but could have helped you in the smaller field contest.
Week 12 Selections
Chalk
Tyreek Hill- Tyreek Hill is up to $8,800 this week, but that won't stop him from being highly owned. Miami has a total team north of 30 this week and is going against a terrible Texans defense. Hill is an excellent cash play, but I don't think he is a great GPP play. He has yet to go over 5X his value since week 2. Hill can explode for sure and he has also had a safe floor as well. However, his ceiling has been capped as Jaylen Waddle has taken some attention away from Hill. To hit 4X value, Hill needs to score 35 points. That's a lot and something he has not done this year.
Tournament Play
Davante Adams- I think Davante Adams is set up for a great GPP spot this week. Most players will pay the extra $200 for Hill (Adams is $8,600). Also, Josh Jacobs looks to be pretty chalky as well this week. Adams is not only leverage off of Hill but also off of Jacobs. By having Adams in your lineups, you're already making your roster a bit more unique and getting to a different build than other players. With Derek Carr coming in over $1,000 cheaper than Tua Tagovailoa you can afford to fit better players in your lineup (if you're taking the Raiders). Adams has been incredible this season outside a few bad games and sets up for an excellent week.
Fade
Garrett Wilson - One way to get different from most players is to fade the chalky cheap WR. Garrett Wilson is this week's one to fade at $4,300. He's projected around almost 20% and has a QB change this week. Yes, Zach Wilson stinks, and Mike White might be an improvement. I'm not sold on that. White loved to check down, which typically bodes well for pass-catching RBs and TEs, not WRs. Granted, the Bears are not a great team, but I don't think the Jets are a great team, either. This game has a 38 over-under, which might be too high. Wilson is an easy fade for me this week.