The changing of the seasons in Canada signals more than just the leaves dropping from the trees up north, it also marks the beginning of the NHL hockey season (and the end of construction season). While American eyes will be trained on their nation's national pastime, the hopes and dreams of my nation begin anew — now more than ever desperate to once again return Lord Stanley to its rightful home.
But that would be getting ahead of ourselves, and we can’t be doing that, speaking as a Leafs fan of course I have first-hand knowledge of the pain such a presumptuous line of thinking can bring. So rather than project out into the very distant future, I prefer to instead break the long grind of the NHL season into seven-week spans.
Why seven weeks? Well, because it represents roughly one quarter of the games played for each team, and that time interval nestles nicely around some important dates on the NHL calendar (Dec 1st, Trade Deadline, etc), and most importantly seven is my favorite number — 7 ate 9 didn’t you know? All puns aside, I feel as if seven weeks typically allows for a decent sample size.
Buy the Kraken
After the dream beginning/success that the Vegas Golden Knights experienced right out of the gate perhaps the expectations had been set a tad too high with regards to how the Kraken might fare in year one — although honestly the pre-season buzz around the team last year wasn’t narrative driven. Most respected models had the Kraken competing for the playoffs, and instead, they finished much closer to last in the league. Just goes to show you one thing my friends — models aren’t everything. In particular, most modelers admit they are bad at projecting goaltending, which was the Achilles’ heel for Seattle last year.
That’s not to say they were precisely scoring in bunches, finishing 31st in goals per game, but it’s nearly impossible to win games when you have the worst goaltender in the league between the pipes. Lots of money was spent in the offseason before bringing in Philipp Grubauer to backstop the rainy city, and he was a sieve last year for Seattle. He finished dead last in the league in goals saved above expected, allowing 31.5 — and if you watched at all, it felt like any meaningful chance the opposition created found twine.
It will be hard to imagine that level of ineptitude is going to be repeated by Grubaeur, who two years ago finished third in Vezina voting, and I am in love with what Ronny Francis did upfront to his top-nine. The free-agent signings of both Oliver Bjorkstrand and Andre Burakovksy are exactly what this team needed to pair with the young centers they’ve drafted over the past two years in Shane Wright and Matty Beniers, both of which I’m expecting to be genuine drivers of play more nights than not. A tad lower down the lineup are very serviceable two-way players in Brandon Tanev and Jordan McCann — and while the backend requires serious help long-term, the team did have defensive metrics last year in terms of scoring chances allowed that weren’t as bad as you might expect. The team finished fourth in expected goals against, sixth in shot attempts allowed, and sixth in high-danger chances against, all with the very same mediocre defensive core.
At the end of the day I’m not saying this team is going to win the Cup, hell it feels likely they’ll be again in the bottom fourth of the league. That said, I think there’s a pretty solid chance they are the best of the “bad teams” this year and particularly out of the gate I think there will be some value to be had betting Seattle against the mid-tier of the West Conference. Look for the Kraken to drown Predators, feast on Duck(s), ground Jets, and hunt Canucks.
Sharks Overs/Opposition Team Totals Over
We stay out west for my second betting angle I’m really quite fond of, and while I was buying Seattle’s chances of punching above where the market has them placed, I am selling the Sharks. In particular, I really struggle to see how this team isn’t amongst the worst in the league defensively with their combination of a poor defense core, mediocre at best netminding, and most importantly —- inept coaching. Because the last time we saw the Sharks’ new coach David Quinn was when he was in charge of the Rangers, and boy it wasn’t pretty.
The system Quinn had the Blueshirts employ was just wholly ineffective, in large part due to immense passivity — which led to inconsistency on the forecheck and backcheck, which led to way too much space for the opposition through the neutral zone. That in turn led to giving up the blue line by design. It was a waterfall of issues that led to the Rangers ranking in the bottom five of most meaningful defensive categories — and there ain’t no Igor between the pipes for the Sharks to erase mistakes
Moreover, you could be excused for not knowing that the Sharks were the best “unders” team in the league last year — tying with the Rangers in tallying 47 unders on the season. I would be floored if that continued, their leaky defense is ripe for the picking, and any upside this roster has is almost solely going forward. Hell, their best defenseman (Erik Karlson) is a forward half the time. So get ready to cheer for goals if you are betting on the Sharks — because you’ll see plenty of them, particularly behind James Reimer/Kaapo Kahkonen all season long.
Back the Canadiens as BIG Dogs
It’s been a very odd couple of years for the least likable hockey fans in the world up there in La Belle Province — because just a couple of years ago they went on a Cinderella run we seldom see in the NHL playoffs, before finishing DEAD last just one year on. So, it’ll be no surprise to see some crooked (+) signs beside the MTL logo this season. And I think the Canadiens might have a little bite as big-time dogs this season.
Going forward, they’ve got both some young exciting guys who are trending in the right direction — Cole Caufield scored 22 goals in his last 37 games last season, Nick Suzuki posted 61 points (21 goals, 40 assists) as a 22-year-old number-one center, and juraj Slafkovsky was the No. 1 overall pick in 2022 and I’d be surprised if he didn’t hit the ground running. More importantly, though the kids won’t be the only boys capable of creating — Dadonov, Hoffman, Anderson, and Gallagher aren’t superstars, but they are high-end role players who all have enjoyed plenty of success over their careers, and should at least score enough goals to pick up a few points against struggling attacks.
The issue will be the back end for the Habs — and while the names that litter the D-core, and mind the net won’t inspire much betting or cheering enthusiasm, they have a coach who clearly makes the boys in the dressing room give a damn about the sweater, and you started to see the impact of Marty St. Louis to end last season. After starting the season 8-30-7 under Ducharme, the Habs went 14-19-4 under St. Louis and improved their goal differential per 60 minutes (5-on-5) from -1.17 to +0.03. They also bumped their expected goals rate from 44.6% to 47.1%.
Lastly, I think there might be something to be said about the Canadian clubs receiving such intense media coverage. When the teams are in essence being “bad” on purpose, there is value to be had betting on them. And in some ways, these Canadiens kind of remind me of the Ottawa Senators from the past two seasons, or the Maple Leafs from the two years prior to drafting Matthews. Those Senators/Leafs had a couple of brilliant young forwards, but the defense and goaltending were not up to par and doomed the Sens to lousy seasons. That said, no team punched-up better than those Senators/Leafs teams when set as big underdogs, and I think it’s Montreal’s turn.
With 2600+ games to gamble on in the NHL regular season it’s easy to get lost in the sauce, but hopefully these three angles can provide both you (the reader) and myself with a few more dollars in our pockets right out of the gates. Variance is always a stingy lover, particularly when it comes to frozen pieces of rubber, that said I certainly won’t complain if lady luck chooses to shower me with some early-season affection – would you?