While Belmont Park is under construction, the Fall Meet that would normally run there has been shifted to Aqueduct Racetrack. This Friday’s race card features average fields of more than eight horses with several opportunities to make some cash. First post is at 1 p.m. ET. I am going to play this card with a $100 budget. (Analysis and picks were made pre-scratches.)
Race 1. New gelding 3 Super Quality gets back to his preferred surface and is a threat to wire the field.
Bets: $2 Win-Place on 3; $1 Exacta Box 3,5,7 $10 total
Race 2. There is a lot of early speed lined up in this race going 6 furlongs on the turf, so I will look for horses that have shown closing kick in the past. 4 Strong Odor fits the profile for trainer Mike Maker. This horse is making her 2022 debut and should be fresh. Published works leading into this race tell me she is tuned up.
Bets: $2 Win-Place on 4; $1 Exacta Box 2,3,4 $10 total
Race 3. Trainer David Donk wheels back 6 Succulent less than four weeks after crossing the finish line first at Saratoga but being placed third for a disqualification. I expect a fair price on this horse; anything over 4-1 is win bet territory for me.
Bets: $2 Win-Place on 6; $1 Exacta Box 4,5,6 $10 total
Race 4. Here is what I can tell you about 1 Genesis One, the lone first-time starter in this field. His bloodline has dirt pedigree. Today’s distance suits him fine, although I think he will prosper going a mile or more. The published works do leave a bit to be desired, but he gets Jose Ortiz in the irons, which leads me to believe there are real expectations here. Still, he projects to be at the back of the pack and there are better choices available. 2 Necromancer just missed last time out at Saratoga and retains rider Javier Castellano today. 4 Actualize has hit the board in half of his six career starts. 5 Grand Again makes his 2022 debut as a new gelding and for a new trainer, Lolita Shivmangal. Getting back on the dirt might be just what 6 Upper Level needs to find the winner’s circle. The cutback to 6 furlongs will not hurt either.
Bet: 50 cent Trifecta 4,6/2,4-6/1-6 $12 total
Race 5. This is a contentious group of six going 6.5 furlongs on dirt. 4 Senbei is 5-for-7 lifetime, but his breeding suggests he prefers shorter distances. 1 Saint Selby has the speed to get to the front and wire this field; he has also shown tactical speed, but to be fair, that was on debut over 18 months ago against much weaker competition. The horse I am looking to key here is 2 Stage Left. He has been in the money five of six starts in 2022. Eric Cancel was in the irons the last four and stays today.
Bets: $2 Trifecta 1,4/1,4/2; $1 Trifecta 1,4/2/1,3-6 $14 total
Race 6. This race alone has the potential to pay for the entire card’s worth of bets. Of the first-time starters, 8 Bring the Magic stands out as the best fit for the surface and distance. One of the few with published 5 furlong works as well. If you like her, you must excuse the most recent work at Belmont and trust the priors that show she has some kick. 2 Fancypants Juliana retains one of the top NYRA circuit jockeys in Luis Saez as she looks to improve on her third-place finish on debut. Trainer Jorge Abreu tabs jockey Flavien Prat for 10 Moonage Daydream. Could it be he was not happy with the ride she got on debut last month at Saratoga? Speaking of jockeys, Irad Ortiz, Jr. will be in the mount of 13 Showmeyourheels, a closer who will undoubtedly benefit from the added distance, having finished fourth last time out going a half furlong less. 14 Highway Harmony was beaten by a length on debut and will likewise benefit from the added distance here. Jockey Manny Franco is listed as the rider of both Highway Harmony and 9 Leadership Ability out of Chad Brown’s barn. Who he ends up on is something to consider post-scratches.
Bet: 50 cent Trifecta box 2,10,13,14 $12 total
Race 7. This is a race I am going to play against the presumptive post time favorites. 7 Runaway Rumour gets jockey Flavien Prat after finishing second last time out. I expect Prat to save ground from the back of the pack before rolling down the stretch late.
Bet: $1 Exacta key box 7/1,4,6,9 $8 total
Race 8. Tough race here. Not because of the caliber of horses entered, but in the inconsistency of their performances. What will we get today? Trainer Antonio Arriaga and jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. are 2-for-2 lifetime. They go for a third win with 2 Locally Owned. 6 Truculent has a habit of gunning to the front and fading down the stretch. If he tries to press the pace, he could soften up the other early speed in 5 American Tattoo and leave it open for the trailers to pick up the pieces.
Bet: $2 Win-Place on 2 $4 total
Race 9. All 9 No Valla has done in her last eight races is hit the board each time. 5 Marketsegmentation, out of American Pharoah, is 1-for-1 lifetime. That win came all the way back last December, but it was over this same track at Aqueduct. Irad Ortiz, Jr. stays aboard for trainer Chad Brown and the Klaravich Stables connections. 1 Diamond Hands figures to be in the mix early, and jockey Luis Saez is as aggressive as they come. But Diamond Hands has faded down the stretch in all three of her starts this year. Joel Rosario rides the import 3 Parnac. She has failed twice since coming stateside but has shown closing kick and gets an additional half furlong to make her run.
Bet: 50 cent Trifecta 3,5,6/3,5,6,9/1,3,5,6,9 $18 total
Those look like some winners if there ever were to start off the weekend. I even kept it under my $100 budget ($98 to be exact). As always, I encourage you to use my analysis and picks in conjunction with your own handicapping to inform your opinions. And most importantly: best of luck playing the races!