Last Friday’s Keeneland Results.
Race 1. 50 cent Trifecta box 3,5,6,9 $12 total RESULT: 7-2-5-10
Race 2. $2 Win-Place-Show on 5 $6 total RESULT: 5-3-1-6 **PAID $32.14**
Race 3. $2 Win on 9, 50 cent Trifecta 7/1,3,4,6,9/1,3,4,6,9 $12 total RESULT: 7-4-8-6
Race 4. $2 Win-Place on 2 $4 total RESULT: 9-8-4-2
Race 5. 50 Trifecta box 1,9,11,12 $12 total RESULT: 11-12-3-4
Race 6. $2 Win-Place-Show on 11 $6 total RESULT: 8-9-3-10
Race 7. $1 Exacta 2,6/2,5-7 $6 total RESULT: 7-8-3-5
Race 8. $1 Exacta 1,3/1,3,6,9 $6 total RESULT: 3-11-7-1
Race 9. $2 Exacta 1/10, $1 Exacta 1/2,5,7-9 $7 total RESULT: 1-2-5-4 **PAID $45.48**
Race 10. 50 cent Trifecta box 1,4,5,7 $12 total RESULT: 1-6-2-4
That was $83 worth of bets on the day, with a return of $77.62. We had a couple of near misses in races 3 and 5 that would have put us flush with winnings. I will try and keep the momentum going today in Lexington.
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Highlighting the second Friday of Keeneland’s 2022 Fall Meet is the on-track only $400 Fall Challenge, a live betting contest where entrants vie for a Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge spot and up to four NHC seats. The feature race of the day is the Grade 3 Sycamore Stakes, a 12 furlong turf route. As usual, I have set a $100 budget to play today’s race card.
Race 1. It is the first time out under trainer Steve Asmussen for 7 Cadeau de Paix. The winningest trainer in North American racing history must be trusted to get this 7-year-old mare in the exacta. 5 Tap N Sway has been in the money her last two races and three of four. 3 Catechism has faced the toughest competition of this bunch. I like her to sit a nice trip and get a piece here; she has been in the money in 12 of 21 lifetime races.
Bets: $2 Win-Place on 7, $1 Exacta key box 7/3-5 $10 total
Race 2. Cherie DeVaux trainee 8 Suitable debuted on grass at the end of August and did not take to the surface. That is because this 2-year-old is a bona fide dirt horse! Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez hops aboard today. Fingers crossed we get something close to the 6-1 morning line. This is the race I feel is going to blow up today, so I am allotting 20% of today’s bankroll on it.
Bet: 50 cent Trifecta 8/3,4,7,9,11,13/3,4,7,9,11,13 $21 total
Race 3. The winningest horse in this race is 6 Frills, having visited the winner’s circle ten times in her career. Definite value there so long as we get 4-1 odds or better at post time. 5 Aferdita comes in a winner of three straight. Her form really took off when they added front wraps; I do not normally like the move, but there is no denying the positive results. She is stepping up in class quite a bit but has been doing so with each of the last three, so it is not a concern for me.
Bet: $1 Straight Exacta 6/2,3,5,7 $4 total
Race 4. The betting key for me this race is going to be 3 Sag Harbor. Trainer Randy Matthews and the connections do not enter this horse in spots where he cannot at least get a piece. In fact, today he is dropping slightly in class, giving me even more confidence that he will outrun his odds.
Bet: 50 cent Trifecta 2,4/2-4,7/1-4,7 $12 total
Race 5. Trainer Chad Brown has 9 Herington Rocket entered here. This 3-year-old filly will try to make it two in a row under jockey Tyler Gaffalione. Her last win was at Kentucky Downs at today’s distance where she rated and won by half a length.
Bet: $2 Win-Place on 9, $1 Exacta box key 9/3,4,6,12 $12 total
Race 6. Trainer Jonathan Thomas plucks John Velazquez off a rival entry here to ride 6 Coppola, who is undefeated. 4 Peaceful Waters is a threat to wire the field, so I will include him in the exacta. The price horse I will use is 7 Stonevicious, a gray going first off a layoff and getting back on Lasix today.
Bet: $1 Exacta box 4,6,7 $6 total
Race 7. I am going to take a swing here and play against the top two choices on the morning line, only using them underneath. Competition is too good to settle on for a short price. My top choice is 9 Boltoro, who debuted on dirt and then went to Kentucky Downs, just missing the winner’s circle at 8 furlongs. The extra half should help today. 5 Sun Bee has placed in her two lifetime races. With a jockey upgrade, I can see her break her maiden today.
Bet: 50 cent Trifecta 5,9/2,5,9/1,2,5,6,8,9,15 $10 total
Race 8. When I see trainer Brad Cox and jockey Florent Geroux on a horse that is 1-for-1 lifetime, especially at today’s surface and distance, I immediately start tinkering underneath. A deeper look reveals some knocks on 12 Strobe. Works have been fine, but we are talking about a five-month layoff for a debut winner. If this horse wants the lead, he will have all he can handle in 2 Improbable Journey today. My investment in this race is going to be on 10 American Icon, a 3-year-old colt out of Gun Runner. This marks his fourth career start, and he finally gets to show his chops at 6 furlongs.
Bet: $2 Win-Place-Show on 10 $6 total
Race 9. Today’s feature is a doozy! 5 Accredit projects to be on the lead and loves this distance. This is his third off a layoff, the previous two serving as paid workouts (he got up for show money both times) as the connections were gearing up to this spot. 6 Channel Maker is always a threat with his late run in these turf marathons; he has won six times going 12 furlongs as the most experienced runner in the field at this distance. A horse I am keen on from a gambling perspective is 4 Highland Chief. A bit of a question mark having never gone the distance before, but trainer Graham Motion tabs John Velazquez for the mount.
Bet: $1 Exacta box key 5/1,2,4,6,10 $10 total
Race 10. I have a nephew by the name of Cooper, so first-time starter 6 Cooper Time immediately sticks out. There are more reasons to be bullish here than name alone. Out of Medaglia d’Oro, this 3-year-old bay colt has been working consistently well for trainer Paulo Lobo. The trainer/jockey combo strikes at 29%. Enough early speed is lined up here in this field, so he should have an opportunity to make a run from mid-pack down the stretch.
Bet: $2 Win-Place-Show on 6 $6 total.
That is $97 in total bets for the day to stay under my stated $100 budget. As always, I encourage you to use my analysis and picks in conjunction with your own handicapping to inform your opinions. I tweet out any bet changes should any of the horses included scratch. Most importantly: best of luck playing the races!