Last week’s results:
Keeneland Race 1. 2 Two by Two W-P-S RESULT 4-2-1-5 **PAID $7.28**
Belmont at the Big A Race 7. 7 Bronx Bomber W-P-S RESULT 3-5-2-6
Santa Anita Race 2. 2 Ole Silver W-P-S RESULT 4-2-1-5 **PAID $6.20**
Santa Anita Race 3. 3 Quicklikeabunny W-P-S RESULT 3-5-1-2 **PAID $16.20**
Santa Anita Race 4. 6 Mighty Matt W-P-S RESULT 9-3-5-8
Santa Anita Race 7. 7 El Tigre Terrible W-P-S RESULT 2-9-6-7
Remington Park Race 2. 7 Dobbins G W-P-S RESULT 8-3-7-6 **PAID $3.80**
Remington Park Race 8. 3 Salt Creek Kid W-P-S RESULT 4-9-6-2
Remington Park Race 10. 1 Half Ours to Keep W-P-S RESULT 8-1-4-9 **PAID $7.60**
Nine across the board bets totaling $54 returned $41.08 on the day.
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While last week was fun handicapping various tracks, I am inclined to refocus my attention on Keeneland in advance of next week’s Breeders’ Cup races. Today’s feature race is the Rubicon Valley View Stakes, a Grade 3 going 8.5 furlongs on turf. I will be playing this card on a tight budget and will skip any races where I do not have a strong opinion or where I see an underlay. As such, I will play the tote board heavily on any Win-Place-Show bets. (For instance, in race 1, when I say to “bet at 4-1 or better,” I will not bet that horse at 3-1, as the odds are shorter than what I have assigned to that horse.) Racing in Lexington kicks off today at 1 p.m. ET.
Race 1. Was the race two weeks back a paid 6 furlong workout for 6 Mahaamel? It certainly appears that way. This Todd Pletcher trainee out of Into Mischief has faced the toughest competition of this bunch and can only improve going second off a layoff. A career record of 4-1-1-2 going 7 furlongs on dirt.
Bet: W-P-S on 6 at 4-1 or better $6 total
Race 3. Two first time starters are lined up in this Maiden Claiming race. 2 One Giant Leap stands out for trainer Wesley Ward. Jockey Joel Rosario will be in the irons and this horse has been getting familiar with the grounds at Keeneland since August.
Bet: W-P-S on 2 at 6-1 or better $6 total
Race 5. On paper this looks to be a good betting race, especially if you are against the morning line favorites. (Which we are!) 9 Around the Sun won on debut two weeks ago at Keeneland at 16-1 odds in a Maiden Special Weight. Given the step up in class today, I think the 6-1 morning line will hold, and hit a nice exacta.
Bet: $1 Exacta 9/1,3-5,12,13 $6 total
Race 6. Both races 6 and 7 have short-priced favorites on the morning line out of trainer Brad Cox’s barn. Both horses will feature jockey Florent Geroux in the irons. In this spot, 4 Sunny River attempts to break her maiden for the sixth time. She has placed in her previous five. Race 7 is tougher competition, but 6 Key of Life should be up to the task. She is 3-2-0-1 lifetime, and 2-for-2 under Geroux. She projects to sit in her preferred spot right off the pace, where she can easily make her move down the stretch.
Bet: $10 Double 4/6 $10 total
Race 8. Jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. has ridden 5 Dolce Zel in each of her starts since arriving Stateside in March. In those five starts, the duo is 2-1-2. Those two wins have come at today’s Grade 3 level, and the 8.5 furlongs would seem to be her preferred distance. She is off a two-month layoff, but regular workouts have been good leading up to this spot. If anything, she should be fresh and ready to fire.
Bet: 50 cent Trifecta 5/1,6,7,9/1,3,6-9,11 $12 total
All said, today’s investment is just $40. Opinions have been pressed and we are ready to print money and build up the bankroll for next Friday and Saturday. As always, I encourage you to use my analysis and picks in conjunction with your own handicapping to inform your opinions. And most importantly: best of luck playing the races!