Last Friday’s results at Belmont at the Big A.
Race 1. $2 Win-Place on 3; $1 Exacta Box 3,5,7 $10 total RESULT: 7-6-5-3
Race 2. $2 Win-Place on 4; $1 Exacta Box 2,3,4 $10 total RESULT: 7-5-3-1
Race 3. $2 Win-Place on 6; $1 Exacta Box 4,5,6 $10 total RESULT: 5-7-9-8
Race 4. 50 cent Trifecta 4,6/2,4-6/1-6 $12 total RESULT: 2-6-3-4
Race 5. $2 Trifecta 1,4/1,4/2; $1 Trifecta 1,4/2/1,3-6 $12 total RESULT: 5-6-3-2
Race 6. 50 cent Trifecta box 2,10,11,13 $12 total RESULT: 10-11-1-2
Race 7. $1 Exacta key box 7/1,4,6,9 $8 total RESULT: 9-4-7-2
Race 8. $2 Win-Place on 2 $4 total RESULT: 7-2-6-3 **PAID $4.50**
Race 9. 50 cent Trifecta 3,5,6/3,5,6,9/1,3,5,6,9 $13.50 total RESULT: 4-5-1-12
As you can see, it was a day to forget overall. Let us get out of New York and set our sights this Friday on Kentucky, shall we?
Exceptional racing at Keeneland is a given, and this year’s Fall Meet appears up to the task. The top horses, jockeys, and trainers descend upon Lexington, Kentucky each October to compete in some of the sport’s biggest races. This year, of course, the Fall Meet is the preamble to the Breeders’ Cup, to be held November 4-5. This Friday kicks off Fall Stars Weekend, with 11 stakes over the first three days of the meet, nine of which are “Win and You’re In” Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series races. First post is 1:00 p.m. ET. I aim to play this card on a $100 budget.
Race 1. First out of the shoot here and I am already price hunting! 9 Higher Authority is 2-for-2 going 7 furlongs on dirt. 6 Alfie Solomons has won against tougher under today’s jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. 3 Direct Order may have 42 races under his belt but the form of late has been good, 5-2-1-0 in the last six months. 5 Hoopla has won three in his career, and always at a short price. We will need to watch his odds on the tote carefully leading up to post time. I will assume he will take money, so he is included in my bet.
Bet: 50 cent Trifecta box 3,5,6,9 $12 total
Race 2. Absolutely love what I see in 5 She’s All Class. This Mike Maker trainee out of Gun Runner goes first time on dirt after trying grass her first two starts. A bullet work on the 28th tells me she should take to the surface fine. Here is hoping we get something close to the 8-1 morning line.
Bet: $2 Win-Place-Show on 5 $6 total
Race 3. Contentious group of 2-year-old fillies going 6 furlongs on dirt here. 3 Looking for Hope, 7 Key of Life, and 9 Mursal are all 1-for-1 at the distance and surface. Especially intriguing to me is Mursal, who tried synthetic at a mile and 70 yards last time out. She projects to be in the back of the pack, but there is evidence here that we could have a torrid pace early. Looking for Hope and 4 Twice as Sweet both want the front and may send from the bell. All we will need is for Key of Life and 1 Crackalacking to press the pace, and–just like that–a pace meltdown for a 50-1 shot to take it with her closing bid! Assuming we get the morning line odds, $2 will go on Mursal to win, and include her underneath in the trifecta.
Bets: $2 Win on 9, 50 cent Trifecta 7/1,3,4,6,9/1,3,4,6,9 $12 total
Race 4. This race is 2 Rideofalifetime’s to lose. Trainer/jockey combo hits at 22% as they look to hit for a second time in a row.
Bet: $2 Win-Place on 2 $4 total
Race 5. Big class drop for 9 Buguine today as she looks to get in the winner’s circle for a second time. 1 Golden Sights is 8-1-5-0 lifetime. Her last race was at Kentucky Downs. Horses who run well there have a knack for winning next time out. 11 Jag Warrior is coming off a win at Churchill Downs and cuts back to a distance his breeding says he should excel at. I have been bullish backing Churchill winners next time out on the NYRA circuit and am willing to give this Dale Romans trainee a shot today. A jockey upgrade for 12 Olga Isabel caught my attention. Joel Rosario is in the irons for her first try off a layoff. Nice work on the 27th of September.
Bet: 50 Trifecta box 1,9,11,12 $12 total
Race 6. A trend I see in horse racing today is that trainers will debut a horse meant for dirt on the grass and vice versa. That was the case with 11 Sir and trainer Ken McPeek. Tried this 2-year-old last month at Kentucky Downs, where he finished a game sixth, beaten by just over 3 lengths. At 15-1 on the morning line, I am not going to overthink this one today.
Bet: $2 Win-Place-Show on 11 $6 total
Race 7. Grade 2 stakes race going 6 furlongs on the dirt really boils down to the early speed of 2 Special Reserve and the late charge of 6 Necker Island. I will use them equally on top and add 5 Sibelius underneath along with the price horse 7 Manny Wah. Sibelius is a winner of two straight, and Manny Wah might get first run at the leaders ahead of Necker Island.
Bet: $1 Exacta 2,6/2,5-7 $6 total
Race 8. All these 2-year-old fillies are winners; several impressive ones at that. I am going to stick to familiar territory here to try and hit the exacta. 1 Sabalenka keeps Jose Ortiz, who was in the mount for her win last time out at Kentucky Downs. 3 Delight sees the return of jockey Luis Saez. He has ridden her twice previously, so there is familiarity there. Trainer Chad Brown plucks Irad Ortiz, Jr. to get aboard 13 Tax Implications, putting her in this Grade 2 after a debut win at Monmouth Park. Assuming she draws into the race, this is a live one.
Bet: $1 Exacta box 1,3,13 $6 total
Race 9. The Grade 1 Darley Alcibiades Stakes is today’s feature. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione and 1 Wonder Wheel are 3-2-1-0 lifetime, and I am putting her on top today. She should jet to the front and hold off all comers. Last time out she had a troubled trip and still got up for second. Underneath I will have several horses and plan to leverage my bets based on the tote board. The bets below are based on what I think we will get; adjust accordingly.
Bets: $2 Exacta 1/10, $1 Exacta 1/2,5,7-9 $7 total
Race 10. Back to jockey Tyler Gaffalione here and 4 Federalist Papers. This filly has paired up 83 Beyers, which could signal a leap forward in performance. 5 Queen Bourbon makes a curious jockey switch from Jose Ortiz to Luis Saez. I wonder if the connections were not happy with his rides? The also eligible 13 Go Big Blue Nation has tried 12 furlongs four times and not hit the board. Today, though, she gets John Velazquez in the irons and must be taken seriously. (If Go Big Blue Nation does not draw in, plug 1 Mia Martina or 7 Roughly a Diamond in her spot. Watch the tote board.)
Bet: $1 Exacta box 4,5,13 $6 total
My cost for entertainment today comes to $77, under my stated budget of $100. As always, I encourage you to use my analysis and picks in conjunction with your own handicapping to inform your opinions. And most importantly: best of luck playing the races!