I gotta say, I was ready to crown myself the underdog king on Sunday when the Jaguars took an early 14-0 lead against the Eagles.
Unfortunately, things turned against me in a hurry and I ended up taking my first upset article loss of the NFL season. But, like I said in last week’s piece, taking the Jaguars to pull off the upset was truly a heat check.
It’s time to get a new streak going, so let’s dive into my best upset pick for Week 5 of the NFL season.
I’ll take the Cincinnati Bengals to upset the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday Night Football.
Bengals +150 vs. Ravens
As of writing this article, the best price you can find for the Bengals moneyline in New York is +150 at FanDuel.
The Bengals offense got off to a disastrous start to their season, but they’re starting to find their footing. They gained 5.9 yards per play last week, which was the 11th most in the NFL. Their biggest weakness, as we all know, is their pass protection. Luckily for them, they now get to face a Ravens defense that ranks 28th in the NFL in sack percentage, taking down the opposing quarterback on just 4.32% of their dropbacks.
Cincinnati should also be able to take advantage of a porous Baltimore defense. Let’s take a look at where the Ravens rank in multiple defensive statistics:
- Opponent yards per play: 29th
- Opponent yards per carry: 23rd
- Opponent yards per pass attempt: 23rd
- Opponent red zone touchdown percentage: 25th
- Sack percentage: 28th
- Opponent points per play: 19th
- Defensive DVOA: 16th
Now let’s take a look at where the Bengals rank in those same defensive categories:
- Opponent yards per play: 11th
- Opponent yards per carry: 7th
- Opponent yards per pass attempt: 9th
- Opponent red zone touchdown percentage: 7th
- Sack percentage: 29th
- Opponent points per play: 6th
- Defensive DVOA: 7th
Unless a defense is a top-five defense or a bottom-five defense, most people overlook their performances. Not many people would guess that the Bengals' unit has been significantly better than the Ravens' this season, but it’s statistically true.
Let’s not forget that the Bengals beat the Ravens in both meetings last season by a combined score of 82-38.
It’s time to buy low on Cincinnati while you still can.
Be sure to head over to BetSided to see the rest of my plays for this weekend’s NFL slate.