Kirk's Hammer: Why Steph White Will Not Win WNBA Coach of the Year

Before I get into anything about this newsletter, I need to get into a quick rant about WNBA discourse. The WNBA is the only league in the world (that I know of) where the fans and media lose their minds when a player they like gets cut. This is extremely confusing to me, OK, I understand being upset if you think a player who shouldn’t be cut gets cut, that’s reasonable to me. But that’s not really what happens, what seems to happen is a moral outrage that players get cut, and oftentimes it feels as though everyone is caught off guard that players are being cut. There are only a certain number of roster spots in the W, and it’s the team’s job to decide who they think will help the team most this year and in the future. Please, can we stop this practice, it’s insufferable and nonsensical… ok now to the topic at hand.

Today’s the day, the first day of the WNBA season, and I am very excited. Let me say, in classic WNBA fashion the league chose an absolutely horrific slate of games to open the season. They were pretty close to picking the optimal set of games if the optimization was set to minimize intrigue. Nonetheless, exciting times and the Saturday slate is electrifying with a classic Liberty - Vegas matchup, then the league’s two biggest draws with Angel vs . Caitlin and finishing up with two exciting dark horse teams with Seattle and Phoenix.

I had a tough time deciding on this newsletter. As anyone who is familiar knows, gambling Twitter gets very upset when someone affects another bettor’s earn. I think that’s mostly fair, although it’s anyone’s right to talk/discuss something they think about betting, I think being conscious of giving away too much is good for all bettors. At the same time, I love talking and writing about betting, and it becomes a bit tough if I can’t write about markets when writing about betting. So, I decided I’m going to give this a try, if people I respect are outraged, it might be the only one of its kind. That being said, the season starts today, if you planned on betting on awards markets, you almost certainly have bet them already.

WNBA Coach of the Year market:

This market is by far the most interesting to me, and one I have debated with multiple people. Steph White, the new coach of the Indiana Fever, is priced at +120 at DK, and -105 at FD. As you can see by the article title, I think this price is entirely insane. If I didn’t discuss this with anyone and didn’t know the market price, I would price Steph White roughly 5%, or 20-1, for COY. I think she is one of the least likely coaches in the league to win this award this season. I understand that a WNBA COY price being negative EV doesn’t exactly sound remarkable, but there are 13 teams in the WNBA; if the near odds-on favorite for the award is truly 20-1, you can nearly blind bet this market and have positive EV.

Ok, so now to why I do not think Steph White has a very good chance of winning WNBA Coach of the Year. First off, different leagues typically have different parameters set for different awards. For Coach of the Year, the NFL typically awards a coach of a team that goes from being thought of as bad or OK to making the playoffs, the NBA winner is typically a higher seed. That being said, the key aspect for winning Coach of the Year in every sport is exceeding expectations. I asked two of the smartest futures bettors I know if they can think of one time that a coach in any league has won Coach of the Year while going under their pre-season win total. Both responded with similar answers, no, they cannot think of any instance, and the only way they could think of a path for such a coach is major injuries hampering the team.

The Indiana Fever win total currently is 30.5 on FD, slightly favoring the over. They are tied for the second -highest win total projection in the WNBA with Minnesota, only behind the New York Liberty. Normally, if someone were to tell you that a price for a market is heavily impacted by the public, they’d be wrong, but in this unique case, it is true. There is absolutely a Caitlin Clark tax on every single Indiana Fever futures market. The Fever should not be tied for second in championship markets, Caitlin should not be the MVP favorite, they should not be lined at 30.5 wins. On top of that, if Indiana truly exceeded expectations and won 34 – 35 games, Caitlin likely would have to be so transcendent that she would walk into the MVP and claim much of the credit for the team’s success. Steph White is nearly the antithesis of a good candidate; she has a team with outsized expectations which, if achieved, likely won’t be attributed to her. I’m not saying there is no path, but she is around the bottom of my list — just past the coaches who have essentially no path (Nakase and Maziane, I’m looking at you).

Alright, so if we hate White’s candidacy, who do we like? I think there are two very solid candidates currently. My favorite being Karl Smesko at +1500. Smesko comes from coaching Florida Gulf Coast and by all signs, he is sharp as a tack. He’s a big believer in an efficient shot map, and he has made some cuts that I very much agree with. He is also coaching a team that has brought in a lot of talent, has fat right tails, and has consistently underperformed the last few years. ATL is priced at 21.5 wins currently and -200 to make the playoffs, if he can get ATL to the top half of the league, he’ll absolutely be in consideration here. Second, Noelle Quinn at +2500 at DK. Seattle won 25 games last year and lost Jewell Loyd, who is generally considered their best player, but I’m not sure they’re actually a much worse team coming into this season. I think Seattle has a path to being a top - 3 seed in the league this season, and if Quinn gets there with the narrative of losing her best player, she’ll have a great shot.

This will be both funny and unfortunate if the WNBA regular season comes to an end and Steph White walks into this award. It could very well happen, but these are my thoughts and how I have gone after this market. Can’t wait to get real games going and see what unfolds this season.

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