Opening night of the NFL season is officially in the books. Now we have to sit through two more days twiddling our thumbs until we can really sink our teeth into some football action on Sunday.
I already gave you my best moneyline upset pick of the week here, and I gave out my best spread bet for every single game over at BetSided, but in this article, let’s just get right down to brass tacks.
With spreads, totals, moneylines, and props all included, here are my official five best bets for the first Sunday of the NFL season.
Bengals -6.5 (-110) vs. Steelers
I firmly believe the Steelers were one of the worst playoff teams in NFL history last season. Mike Tomlin deserved to win coach of the year for dragging them to the playoffs.
They ranked third last in the NFL in net yards per play. The only teams that were worse were the Jets and the Texans. Does Mitch Trubisky all of a sudden take their offense to the next level? I certainly don’t think so.
Also, we need to stop assuming the Steelers have a good defense. Pittsburgh ranked 24th in opponent yards per play in 2021, and dead last in allowing opponents 5.0 yards per carry.
Then, you have the Bengals. Joe Burrow led starting quarterbacks in both completion percentage and yards per pass attempt last season, and he did it playing behind an offensive line that allowed the second highest quarterback sacked percentage.
Cincinnati then went out and got Alex Kappa, Ted Karras, and La’el Collins. All of a sudden, they have one of the better offensive lines in the league. Cincinnati is going to be a scary offense this year.
Bengals win big in Week 1.
Justin Fields OVER 33.5 rushing yards (-115)
Justin Fields and the Chicago Bears will be taking on the San Francisco 49ers, and it’s a perfect recipe for a ton of rushing yards for Fields.
First of all, the Bears have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. They ranked dead last in quarterback sacked percentage last season. Now, they need to face a 49ers pass rush that ranked third in sack percentage in 2021. So, Fields will be running for his life, and staying in the pocket likely won’t be an option.
Secondly, we all know the Bears have no good receivers to throw to. So, the Ohio State product won’t have many targets to bail him out when he’s scrambling on nearly every drop back.
Finally, Fields faced the 49ers last season, and he ran for 103 yards on 10 carries, well above his rushing total in this game.
Patriots vs. Dolphins UNDER 46.5 (-110)
My favorite total in Week 1 is the UNDER between the Patriots and Dolphins.
There has been whispers of offensive issues for the Patriots throughout training camp, and the few drives that their number one unit had in preseason, were disastrous. Their talent at wideout is still average at best, and their new offensive coordinators are Joe Judge and Matt Patricia. Those facts don’t give me a ton of confidence.
If Bill Belichick was smart, and I think he is, he’s going to stick to a very defensive, run-the-football type of game plan, which should lead to an under.
Despite the offseason hype surrounding the Dolphins offense. I’m not yet sold. I don’t think Tyreek Hill turns an offense that finished 29th in yards per play, into a top-tier unit.
Let’s also consider they’re going up against the third best scoring defense from last season. The Patriots allowed an average of just 19.4 points per game.
It’s never fun to bet an UNDER, but it’s my favorite total bet of the week.
Cardinals +6 (-105) vs. Chiefs
Shop around for this number. As of writing this article, you can get the Cardinals at +6 at -105 at BetMGM, but at the same juice, they’re +5.5 at FanDuel.
When people think about the Chiefs, they think of Patrick Mahomes. Unfortunately for Kansas City fans and bettors, they’re completely forgetting just how bad the Chiefs defense was last season.
Kansas City ranked 28th in opponent yards per play in 2021, 30th in opponent yards per carry, 22nd in third down defense, and 31st in sack percentage. I don’t think acquiring Carlos Dunlap is going to fix their issues.
Then, there’s the offense who will try to move on without Tyreek Hill. Is someone like JuJu Smith-Schuster going to be a comparable replacement? I certainly don’t think so.
I personally got this at a bad number of +4.5 early in the week, so I’d certainly recommend grabbing the Cards at +6 if you can. Let’s hope for another hot start for Arizona.
Dalvin Cook OVER 70.5 rushing yards (-110)
Dalvin Cook took a slight step back in his production last season, but he still averaged 4.7 yards per carry. With that being said, he should have a favorable matchup in the opening week of the Vikings' 2022 campaign.
Despite everyone praising the Packers defense, they ranked 28th in opponent yards per carry last season, allowing an average of 4.6 yards per rush. Sure, they drafted Quay Walker out of Georgia, but their run defense will still be a weakness for them.
Cook averaged 89.2 rushing yards per game last season, and his Week 1 total is 19 yards below that, with the 27-year old taking on one of the worst rushing defenses from 2021.
This is my favorite prop bet for the opening week of action.