Every week during the NFL season I’ll be here with the Hammer Network giving out at least two of my favorite derivative bets. What’s a derivative bet, you ask? Traditional against the spread (ATS) plays are wagers on the full game spread or total. Anything outside of that, say a first quarter or prop bet, is considered a derivative wager. I love taking advantage of derivative angles since they’re usually predicated on segments of the game or specific narratives, and you can often find hidden value in the lines.
This week, I’m going with two road favorites who are set to explode out of the gate. Let’s take a look, and remember to check back every week for my plays!
Ravens 1H -3.5 (-110 at most books)
This is an unfortunate first game for the New York Jets. Joe Flacco will lead the home team against the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET, and I think the Ravens may look better than ever. Even if they don’t play J.K. Dobbins (he’s officially questionable) to start the season, Lamar Jackson is officially in a contract year (he reportedly turned down the Ravens’ deal Friday). I expect him to be exceptionally motivated under these circumstances. Ergo, I feel badly for the Jets’ defense.
But the biggest reason why I like this bet is Baltimore’s defense. No team was more decimated by injury last year than the Ravens, but they did one hell of a job reloading for the 2022 season. Former Pro Bowlers Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey return to their roles alongside Chuck Clark in the Baltimore secondary, and we love that they added free safety Marcus Williams in the offseason. At 6’1” and only 25 years old, Williams’ ascent fell under the radar during his stint with the Saints. We think he’s the missing piece they needed. Together with a front seven that finished top three in major categories against the run last season (opponent rush yards per game, opponent yards per rush, etc.), Flacco and the Jets should have considerable difficulty getting off the ground in this contest. Another derivative bet is taking the Jets team total under 19 points, which I don’t think is a bad angle at all.
The Ravens also revamped their offensive line and will have a clear special teams advantage behind Justin Tucker. A perennial playoff team that ended up dead last in the AFC North last season, the Ravens must be as fired up as any franchise to take the field and put the league on notice. John Harbaugh is 27-15-2 ATS when he’s had at least 10 days to prepare for a game – take the Ravens early.
Chiefs 1H -3 (-115 at most books)
The talk of the town is how Kansas City will look without Tyreek Hill in Week 1. I’m not so concerned. Patrick Mahomes looked sensational in limited preseason action, showing no signs of reduced chemistry or production with his offense. They still have Travis Kelce, arguably the most talented tight end in the league, and a ton of speed in wide receivers Juju Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Mecole Hardman. And no one’s talking about Clyde Edwards-Helaire, the third-year running back who showed tremendous burst early last year with Kansas City, only to be limited again due to ankle and knee injuries. He also had to start behind a 2021 offensive line that had four new additions, leaving plenty of kinks to work through early last season. The Chiefs blockers hit a new stride in the second half of the season, but Helaire’s injuries cut his opportunity short.
On the other end of the field, the Arizona Cardinals are careening into the new season with a lot of red flags. They let All-Pro pass rusher Chandler Jones go to Las Vegas, leaving J.J. Watt with a porous defensive line with little depth. Kyler Murray comes into the season cold; he didn’t play a lick of preseason action. On top of that, the controversy over his lack of preparation, which was implied in his new contract, must’ve left a sour taste in the Cardinals organization. And to make matters worse, they’re without DeAndre Hopkins for six games due to PED-related suspension. That won’t fare well against a Kansas City defense that looked fast and hungry in the preseason – the defense will be better than people think.
Andy Reid is 6-3 ATS in Week 1 as the Chiefs head coach and Mahomes is poised to prove doubters wrong after an early exit in the AFC Conference Championship game last season. I love the Chiefs to come out on fire and at -3, we’re getting a far more talented outfit at a humble number. Take the Chiefs ATS in the first half and don’t look back!