It’s overreaction Monday! To make informed decisions when betting NFL Week 2, we as bettors need to find the right balance between trusting our priors from the preseason and reacting to new information from Week 1. If you can avoid overreactions and draw the correct conclusions from what happened last week, you’ll set yourself up well. I wrote down some of my observations from Week 1 – some might look like total overreactions by this time next week. Some might help shape your thought process.
Sean McVay and first down runs
In 2021, the Los Angeles Rams had a very questionable early down offense. Even though they were horrendous, Sean McVay tried to establish the run as hard as possible during the Rams’ playoff run. He got consistently bailed out by big plays from Matthew Stafford. That scheme continued in this year’s opener against the Buffalo Bills. Up until the score was 17-10 in favor of Buffalo, Sean McVay called a run on 10 of 15 first downs for a combined 37 yards. The 3.7 yards per rush is still heavily skewed by one breakout carry that went for 18 yards. That leaves nine other runs for 19 yards. McVay has called first downs as if he had the number one run-blocking offensive line in the league and the opponent was a below-average defense, instead of Buffalo. But that offensive line got whipped around all game by Buffalo’s front seven. It’s still very concerning to me that Sean McVay tries to bang his head against a wall repeatedly, even though it’s not working.
Joe Lombardi: We got a problem
If someone watched the Raiders vs. Chargers game yesterday without knowing who the quarterback is, he would get the impression that it’s a Mitchell Trubisky or Jared Goff offense. This game was close in the fourth quarter despite Justin Herbert averaging 0.46 EPA/play more than Derek Carr, and the Bolts winning the turnover battle 3-0 is ALARMING. The Chargers are not maximizing their quarterback. L.A. averaged 0.57 EPA/play on early down passes versus -0.38 on the ground – but it called 23 runs versus 26 passes. And that’s despite the Raiders losing free safety Trevon Moehrig and cornerback Anthony Averett during the game. That’s malpractice.
So many short passes. Bootlegs into the flat. It was like watching the late 2020 Bears offense. After Keenan Allen went down with a hamstring injury, Herbert threw to Tre McKitty, Richard Rodgers, and DeAndre Carter. That’s what happens when you ignore receiving depth during the off-season.
The Cheeseheads looked like Swiss Cheese – on both sides
It’s not a shame when the best young wide receiver in the league goes off against your defense. But the way the Green Bay Packers defense played against Justin Jefferson – including some players' postgame comments – leaves many question marks. During the offseason, even the below-average fantasy players knew the Vikings intended to increase Justin Jefferson’s role within the offense and use him in different ways to get him the ball in more creative ways. Everyone knew that. Jefferson was the favorite for to lead the league in receiving yards. But the Packers' defense let Jefferson run free with a radius of more than five yards in soft zone coverage quite a few times – and that against a Sean McVay-esque offense that intends to dissect zone coverage. Cornerback Jaire Alexander is one of the best in the league and got a fresh four-year, $84-million contract. Why the Packers didn’t put their best player on Jefferson much more to make it harder on the Vikings remains their secret.
On the other side, Aaron Rodgers took a physical beating in a way I have not witnessed over the past 10 years. It’s important to note that Green Bay was without both starting tackles David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins, which is going to change at some point soon. They were also without Allen Lazard. It’s hard to tell from the broadcast screen, and I could be completely wrong about that, but I had the sense that the Packers receivers struggled to get open. That, combined with the Packers’ offensive line not holding up well against the Vikings’ pass rush, led to some deadly situations for Rodgers. Blown assignments along the line, some perfectly timed blitzes by Minnesota, and some guys just getting beat straight up – there was a reason why AJ Dillon saw the most targets. It’s more likely than not that Green Bay will figure it out once they get some guys back.
T.J. Watt matters
The Steelers can be fortunate that they will likely face three backup quarterbacks over the next three weeks because they could be in trouble. Losing T.J. Watt matters. Sports Info Solutions said Watt was off the field for 198 passing snaps last season. On those snaps, the Steelers defense gave up 0.17 EPA per pass. When Watt was on the field, their efficiency shot “up” (negative EPA is good for defenses) to -0.06 EPA/pass. That’s a massive split on decent sample size. Usually, on/off splits for NFL players are very noisy. You need a proper sample size and also apply a lot of contexts. But in this case, it’s pretty telling that the sack leader of the past two years matters. And it’s not like the Steelers looked like a bulldozer on the offensive side.