With Week 2 nearly in the books, here are some observations you should give more thought to when handicapping the next slate of matchups:
Downgrading the Chargers’ coaching staff
We already addressed it last week, but I have to continue to beat this drum: the coaching for the Los Angeles Chargers is concerning when you consider the high prior they had going into the year. Let’s start with Brandon Staley, the unanimous king of the analytics community in 2021, because of his aggressiveness on fourth downs. He ultimately moved away from it, losing his team several percentage points of win probability this season by punting instead of going for it on select fourth downs. What’s even more mind-boggling were his comments after the game:
Yes, the Chargers played very well on defense at Arrowhead. But giving the ball to Patrick Mahomes is not the way to beat him. The way to beat the Chiefs is to score more points and not waste possessions. Playing well on defense should instead be a solid argument to be aggressive on fourth downs – if you trust your defense, you should feel comfortable when failing on fourth down.
Now let’s talk about offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi. After two weeks, the Chargers rank 30th in EPA/play on first down. They played six quarters without Keenan Allen, but they still have superhero Justin Herbert and an offensive line they heavily invested in. Averaging -0.24 EPA/play on first down is not justified. Everything with that offense feels slow. Many routes don’t cross the first-down marker – it feels like an offense whose quarterback is not named Justin Herbert.
Wink is cooking
The Panthers had everything going for them. They had tons of market support, closing as a short road favorite. The Giants lost Leonard Williams midway through the game, already without their top-two edge rushers. The Panthers also keyed in on Saquon Barkley and completely shut down the Giants’ rush attack. But the tiny difference in this coinflip matchup was Giants defensive coordinator Wink Martindale, who called one heck of a game. He clouded the pre-snap view for Baker Mayfield at the line of scrimmage and called some perfectly timed blitzes on critical downs.
Baker Mayfield didn’t turn the ball over, yet he averaged an abysmal -1.14 EPA/play on 12 third and fouth downs. I give a lot of credit to Wink Martindale. Now that brings up an interesting question. We knew what type of defense Martindale would call, but we – at least I – had many questions about whether he would have the personnel to run his scheme. After two weeks, we now have to decide whether the Giants’ defense has been performing better than expected, or whether they just faced two alarming offenses.
The Bengals are in disarray – Ask Madden.
I cannot explain what I witnessed during the Bengals/Cowboys matchup. There is a glaring disconnect within the Bengals offense. Joe Burrow is already on pace for a new sack record, but I wouldn’t even put the bulk of the blame on the offensive line. It’s a product of a few different things. The play selection of head coach Zac Taylor and offensive coordinator Brian Callahan feels so random – almost as if they chose plays from the “Ask Madden” screen. The run is not tied to the pass in any way. Opposing defenses are taking away the deep ball to Ja’Marr Chase, and the Bengals cannot find any other creative ways to get him the ball.
Joe Burrow has to hold the ball very long because his super-talented receiving group isn’t getting open quickly enough to mask any deficiencies or blown blocks along the offensive line – which is an issue the scheme should solve. The line was significantly upgraded during the offseason, but they still had a lot of trouble blocking the likes of T.J. Watt and Micah Parsons. Burrow is taking many unnecessary sacks, and even though he’s holding the ball very long, he’s averaging the seventh-lowest average depth of target. We aren’t talking about some individual mistakes, unlucky turnovers, or random observations – there are significant problems, and I question how quickly those can be solved.
Where is Kyle Pitts?
“It’s not fantasy football. We’re just trying to win.” That’s what Falcons head coach Arthur Smith said when asked about Kyle Pitts’ lack of production. Pitts, who had the best rookie season for a tight end in over 60 years, has only four catches on 10 targets for a combined 38 yards in this young season. Astonishingly, Atlanta’s offense ranks eighth in EPA/dropback and third in dropback success rate (among teams with two games played) despite not being able to incorporate their great young tight end. Could they raise their ceiling when Pitts gets more involved? Or did they already overperform?
Chicago Bears: Priors confirmed?
The Chicago media went crazy over the massive upset in Week 1, but as many people repeatedly explained last week, we didn’t learn anything about the Bears. It was just a significant rain game where they made a handful of good plays during the second half, which was enough. Against the Packers, they showed all the weaknesses they supposedly had going into the year. They had a great opening script, but were toast afterward. Their front seven got bullied all game, their receiving group wasn’t getting open, and the coaching staff didn’t trust the passing game in a game script where Chicago was behind for three quarters – Justin Fields only had 16 dropbacks. Chicago called 30 runs. Was it because of Fields, or because they don't trust the offense as a sum of all the pieces they put together in the offseason? It remains to be seen.