The Falcons’ offense might be… sneakily good?
Last year, the Falcons’ offense was a mess. They ranked 27th in EPA/play and 28th in success rate. Matt Ryan still got a lot of praise for making the best of it. The blame was the offensive line, Calvin Ridley leaving the team, and other receivers outside of Kyle Pitts not stepping up. Going into 2022, Atlanta replaced Ryan with three-year-long backup Marcus Mariota and added wide receiver Drake London in the draft. The receiving options outside of Pitts and London are Parker Hesse and Olamide Zaccheaus. The offense line returned four starters. And it turns out: it looks pretty good.
After three weeks, the Falcons’ offense ranks eighth in EPA/play and second in success rate. And while people usually rush to mention the schedule a team has played, Atlanta has faced the Saints and Rams, two defenses that most experts expected to be in the upper half going into the season. Outside of Mariota losing three fumbles and throwing three interceptions – which hurts their EPA/play number – there’s a lot to like about this offense. The run game looks smooth and fluid – Cordarelle Patterson runs like he’s got that dawg in him – and the whole offense looks cohesive. The passing game is tied to the run game, Arthur Smith is scheming Kyle Pitts and Drake London open, and Mariota has shown decent accuracy. The Falcons might not win many games this year, which is fine, but they could be much better than the market anticipated going into the season. And to light the world on fire: the Colts’ offense with Matt Ryan ranks dead-last in EPA/play after Week 3.
Raiders: what are we doing here?
The upside for the Las Vegas Raiders was that they could be on a heater if their star players could carry the team. So far, that’s not been the case. They don’t execute. We must give the Titans a lot of credit because they played incredibly well on offense during the first half of Sunday’s win – it was vintage Titans football. They pounded with Derrick Henry and then attacked the defense with play-action over the middle of the field. It worked, as the Titans scored 24 points by halftime, and the Raiders’ defense looked like a college unit. However, the Titans had a few mental errors in the second half and invited the Raiders to march a comeback several times. And they left several chances to do so on the board.
Las Vegas entered the red zone six times, made it inside the Titans’ 10-yard line five times, and still needed some miracle fourth-down plays to get to 22 points. Davante Adams had five receptions for 36 yards. Last week he had two receptions for twelve yards. Darren Waller dropped a touchdown which led to a field goal, a big third down pass that led to a punt, and he tipped a would-be touchdown at the goal line into the hands of a Titans defender for an interception. That is not how the Raiders offense was supposed to be. Adams was the focal point of the Packers’ offense when Aaron Rodgers won back-to-back MVP titles. The Raiders cannot even scheme him a combined 50 yards across two weeks. Vegas has a lousy offensive line and don’t run the ball efficiently. They are entirely dependent on their superstars. They will be subject to higher variance from a betting perspective because they don’t have a high floor.
Justin is not having any Fields days
The Chicago Bears are 2-1 in large part because they got the better ending in a monsoon game against the 49ers in Week 1, and Davis Mills threw an interception right into a defender’s chest to set up the game-winning field goal for Chicago in Week 3. But the Bears’ passing attack is highly concerning.
All offseason there was talk about how the Bears’ new front office wouldn’t put Justin Fields in a position to succeed – all the pundits were proven right thus far. But it’s also a lot on Fields himself. He’s holding the ball for very long and he has zero sense of arriving pressure. He took five sacks and several hits en route to an 8-for-17 stat line for 82 net passing yards against the almighty Texans defense. The Bears’ rushing attack looks lethal, but having a lousy pass offense is usually not a recipe for medium- or long-term success in the NFL. And unless Fields magically turns his game upside down, there is nothing in the supporting cast to point towards a significant efficiency increase.
Who is going to stop the Eagles?
We briefly discussed it on the Primetime show with Rob Pizzola at halftime of the Sunday Night Football game: the remaining Eagles’ schedule looks laughably easy. Health is always the talking point when making any projection, but there’s a realistic chance they will be favored in every game this season. As of now, the first seed is the Eagles’ to lose. They are stacked on both sides of the ball; Jalen Hurts has shown improvement as a passer, and they have dominated bad teams – precisely what you want to see from a juggernaut. They led the Commanders 24-0 before they took several gears back. They handily defeated the Vikings, who are supposed to be a wild card contender. The final score of 38-35 against the Lions looks closer than it was throughout the game, as Philly had leads of 21-7, 31-14, and 38-21 before Detroit scored in garbage time. From a power rating perspective, they deserve to be the No. 2 ranked team in the NFL behind the Bills. But one of these squads is healthy – advantage Eagles. Probably.