Another week of NFL football is in the books. We had fourth quarter sweats, bad beats, interesting coaching decisions, and a change to the scoring environment.
Inside the 10 – the NFL’s most hidden hurdle
The scoring environment has been down this season. Over the first three weeks, NFL games averaged a total score of 42.1 with a median score of 40 – unknown territory when considering the scoring boom over the last century. What was the driver of that? First of all, passing efficiency was down compared to past seasons. Compared to the first three weeks of 2021, NFL offenses were averaging 0.045 EPA/dropback, 0.38 yards per pass, roughly three percentage points of success rate, and 3.08% CPOE less this time.
It got incredibly wonky when offenses came close to the opposing goal line. Inside the 10-yard line, NFL offenses averaged a whopping 0.176 EPA/play LESS compared to the four-year average from 2018-2021. In Week 4, we witnessed a renaissance of goal-line efficiency. Offenses averaged 0.191 EPA/play inside the opposing 10-yard line this week (the 2018-2021 average was 0.102). That led to 15 games averaging a total score of 50.3 points per game with a median of 44.0.
Over four weeks, we are sitting at an average total of 44.03 with a median score of 42.0. It’s the lowest median and second-lowest average (2017) since 2011. Offensive play inside the 10-yard line can be subject to variance, especially with NFL offenses going for it on fourth downs at a higher clip nowadays. Week 4 was an outlier towards the upside, but we should be back on track. It’s hard to fathom NFL offenses will continue to shit the bed inside the 10 the way they did the first three weeks.
John Harbaugh was right
There was a lot of controversy in the media and on Twitter about John Harbaugh’s decision to go for it late against the Bills. Lamar Jackson threw an interception on fourth-and-goal at the Buffalo 2-yard line. Some folks say the Ravens were better off kicking the field goal and letting the Bills work down the field. Here’s why Harbaugh made the right decision, outside of looking at win probability models:
- Fourth-and-2 with Lamar Jackson, who’s been playing on an MVP level, is a no-brainer
- You don’t beat Josh Allen by kicking field goals
- The Bills had 4:15 left on the clock, including three timeouts
- The Ravens defense couldn’t stop Buffalo in the second half
- Hindsight bias: the Bills MARCHED down the field and avoided putting the ball in the end zone. In hindsight, going for a touchdown was the Ravens’ best chance
https://www.espn.com/video/clip/_/id/34717871
The Eagles can win in different ways
It was windy. It was pouring. The Jaguars were quickly up 14-0 at Lincoln Financial Field, with the help of an interception return touchdown off a tipped pass. It was the worst possible start for the Eagles. On top of that, they lost left tackle Jordan Mailata, right guard Isaac Seumalo, and cornerback Darius Slay to injuries during the game. That didn’t hold them back from responding with a 29-0 run deep into the fourth quarter. Jalen Hurts’ pick-six was worth 8.8 expected points, but excluding that, Hurts only averaged 0.02 EPA/play on all other plays. The Eagles orchestrated this comeback because of a stout run game and some key plays on defense. It must be noted that the Jaguars also lost four fumbles, of which two could be attributed to the rain.
However, Philly still marched three of their five scoring drives for 57, 71, and 78 yards. And they had a turnover on downs late in the game at the Jacksonville 20, where Nick Sirianni wanted to ice the game. The Eagles casually dropped 29 points on a rising Jaguars team without a stellar day from their passing attack – simply because their banged-up offensive line dominated a supposed-to-be good front seven all day long.
No Tyreek, no problem?
The Kansas City Chiefs were very unfortunate to lose their game against the Indianapolis Colts. Otherwise, they would be the only AFC team with a 4-0 record. Over the offseason there were lots of discussions about how the Chiefs would replace Tyreek Hill and whether they will see a drop in efficiency. After four weeks, the answer is: there isn’t a drop-off at all. They lead the league in EPA/play at 0.230. The subsequent best offense – the Seahawks – averages 0.164 EPA/play. Patrick Mahomes and company also rank first in EPA/dropback. Only the Bills have a slightly higher dropback success rate as of now.
Quo Vadis, Atlanta Falcons?
When Jacoby Brissett took a sack late in the game that catapulted the Browns out of field goal range, it cost me money (I was on the over 47, rooting for overtime). And it might have cost the Falcons some of their future. Atlanta won the game and is now 2-2 despite Marcus Mariota completing only 7 of 19 passes for 131 yards. As pointed out last week, the Falcons’ offense ranks very high in terms of efficiency. It looks well designed with a good running game and two playmakers in Kyle Pitts (on paper) and Drake London. Mariota raised the floor of the offense due to his dual-threat ability and being sharp enough in the passing game. But Mariota is not the long-term answer. We are speaking in hypotheticals, but at 1-3 and Mariota coming off a poor game, it would have been an opportunity for Arthur Smith to
give third-round pick Desmond Ridder the chance to get a good evaluation this year. But now it’s “Never change a winning team.” To put it bluntly, the late sack of Jacoby Brissett might have put more harm on the Falcons.
The next thing I want to address: as efficient as the Falcons’ offense has been through four weeks, what is Arthur Smith doing with Pitts? Parker Hesse had more snaps than Pitts against the Browns. Pitts only ran 12 routes and had four targets. This guy had the most receiving yards for a rookie tight end in about 50 years, and Arthur Smith is not incorporating his incredible skill set as a receiver into the offense so far in 2022. The Falcons have the second-highest rush rate on early downs in neutral situations. The want to be run-heavy, I dig that. And they have been efficient on early downs, averaging 0.12 EPA/play, but I cannot imagine that involving your generational talent at tight end more on these downs will lead to a downfall. No clue what we are doing here.
Is there a quarterback controversy brewing in Dallas?
No.