After starting the season with two straight 2-3 weeks, we’ve now gone 3-2 in two straight weeks to bring my record back to .500 at 10-10. Naturally, we’re still a little bit in the red at -0.72 units, but we’re on the cusp of getting back to being profitable.
In this article, I’ll be giving you my five very best bets for NFL Week 5, including spreads, totals, and player props.
Saquon Barkley OVER 81.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
If there’s a path to the Giants hanging with the Packers in London on Sunday morning, it’s through Saquon Barkely. New York matches up well with Green Bay when it comes to the run game.
Barkley is averaging 5.5 yards per carry this season, and now he gets to face a Packers defense that ranks 22nd in opponent yards per carry, allowing an average of 5.0 yards per rush.
Barkley is averaging a staggering 115.8 yards per game, which is well above his set total for Sunday’s game. I love the over in this spot, and it’s my favorite player prop of the week.
Browns +2.5 (-110) vs. Chargers
Speaking of teams who match up well stylistically with their opponents, the Browns should be able to run all over the Chargers on Sunday.
Heading into the game, the Chargers rank second last in opponent yards per carry, allowing an average of 5.4 yards per rush. Now, they have to face one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL. The two-headed monster of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt should have their way with their defense.
I’m not entirely convinced the Chargers are a good team or that Brandon Staley is a good coach. I think this is the perfect spot to fade them.
Seahawks vs. Saints OVER 46 (-110)
The Saints are averaging a measly 19 points per game, but yet they’re averaging 6.0 yards per play, which ranks 8th in the NFL. That tells me that points are coming sooner rather than later for this team, so targeting OVER bets could be a good strategy moving forward.
That’s especially the case this weekend when they take on an OVER bettors dream in the Seahawks. Seattle is 3rd in the league in yards per play at 6.3, but dead last in opponent yards per play at 6.7.
The Saints offense also got a boost with Andy Dalton under center last week. They averaged 8.4 yards per pass attempt, which was 0.7 yards more than their season average. This is my favorite totals bet of the week.
49ers -6.5 (-110) vs. Panthers
There’s not a lot to say about this game that isn’t already obvious. This is a showdown between the NFL’s best defense, and arguably the league’s worst offense.
The 49ers are on a historic pace defensively, ranking first in opponent yards per play at 3.8, which is 0.4 yards better than the next best team. Now, they get to tee off on the Panthers, who are 26th in the NFL in yards per play and managed to average a measly 4.3 yards per play against the porous Cardinals defense last week.
Baker Mayfield is about to see ghosts. The 49ers have the best pass rush in the NFL, averaging a sack on 10.42% of opponent drop backs, while the Panthers are 25th in QB sacked percentage, allowing a sack on 8.59% of Mayfield drop backs.
This is going to be a beat down, or at least I’m betting on that to be the case.
Rams -5.5 (-110) vs. Cowboys
I see no game this week that’s a better example of “buy low, sell high” than Sunday’s NFC showdown between the Rams and Cowboys.
The Rams were embarrassed by the 49ers on Monday night, and their offense has looked a shell of their former selves this season. With that being said, let’s remember that they’ve faced the top two defenses already this season in the Bills and 49ers.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys have taken advantage of a few matchups against easy opponents like the Giants and Commanders. Even though Cooper Rush has done enough to win games while replacing Dak Prescott, the Cowboys offense is 20th in yards per play at 5.2, and 30th in third down conversion percentage, getting a first down on just 30.19% of third downs.
I’ll lay the points with the Rams and hope they bounce back in a big way.
Be sure to check the rest of my work over at BetSided ahead of Sunday’s NFL slate.