The PGA Tour continues on its fall swing this week as a field of 132 golfers head to the El Camaleón Golf Course in Riviera, Mexico to play the ‘World Wide Technology Championship’ at Mayakoba. Former World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler sits atop the outright market in a field consisting of five golfers currently ranked inside the OWGR top-20, of which includes the likes of: Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, Tony Finau, and Billy Horschel.
At 11-to-1, Viktor Hovland is the second-favorite in this week’s outright market to win at Mayakoba. Not only is Hovland in unbelievable form finishing inside the top-5 in four of his last six events, the 25-year-old Norwegian seeks his third consecutive victory at Mayakoba. Viktor vows to be the first player since Tiger Woods to “3-peat” an event, with Tiger having done so in two different events from 2005 to 2007- the ‘WGC-Bridgestone Invitational’ and WGC- Cadillac Championship.’
‘El Camaleón Golf Course’ at a Glance
The El Camaleón GC is a Greg Norman-design that was first completed in 2006, and despite a number of name changes, has been the host to this event for the last 15 years, specifically from 2007 to the last time it has been played, in 2021.
The golf course at Mayakoba is definitely on the shorter side in comparison to the other courses featured on the annual PGA Tour schedule, playing as a Par-71 at just under 7000 yards. El Camaleón features Paspalum grass throughout its structure, a putting surface that is very common on a number of coastal, or seaside courses. While Mayakoba features a substantial amount of scoring opportunities, more often than not playing as a “birdie-fest”, it also features an array of penal areas and other hazards alongside its narrow fairways, and throughout the rest of the structure. The course is surrounded by very compact areas of bush on the outskirts of the Mexican jungle. Mayakoba is also characterized by its long, winding canals, on top of a number of other water hazards that make accuracy both off-the-tee, and on approach, vital to evading these penal areas.
Below, we’ll take a look at some of the biggest key metrics to consider this week when betting on the ‘World Wide Technology Championship’ at Mayakoba. Also, I'll touch upon what an ideal golfer-profile looks like relative to finding success this week in Mexico.
Hole-by-Hole Breakdown
Mayakoba ranks as one of the five shortest courses on the tour schedule, and it’s extremely evident when breaking down each hole. El Camaleón features four par-3s and three par-5s, many of which have yardages far below the PGA Tour average. Further, three of the four par-3’s measure under 160 yards, most notably the 4th hole measures at 116 yards which is one of the three shortest holes played on the PGA’s annual schedule. Mayakoba has three par-5s that are also on the shorter side, of which present the biggest birdie-making opportunities throughout the course.
On the other hand, El Camaleón also has five par-4s that measure at an excess of 450 yards which is extremely unique, or rather uncommon, at such a small course.
Top-3 Key Stats at Mayakoba
In spite of several name changes made throughout the history of this event at El Camaleón Golf Course, we have a considerable amount of PGA Tour statistical data to reference from the last 15 years that this event has been played. At the forefront of all historical data and key metrics to consider heading into Mayakoba this week, Driving Accuracy has been the most significant stat pertinent to finding success here in years prior, and by a considerable margin.
Driving Accuracy
In reference to all of the statistical data recorded over the last 15 years, or rather since Norman first designed the golf course in 2007, there are just three courses on the entire PGA Tour schedule where Driving Accuracy is ranked as more significant to that of El Camaleón Mayakoba. Long-hitters off-the-tee are not rewarded in the slightest with such a small course in stature, and with that being said, hitting fairways here in Riviera is essential to avoiding penalty areas.
SG:APP
While a golfer’s ability to gain strokes on Approach is vital to winning at any course, it’s certainly magnified at El Camaleón Mayakoba. Considering how vital accuracy is to finding success in Mexico this week, we should look to elite ball-strikes who also thrive with long-irons, particularly in proximity from 150 yards and under given how short Mayakoba is in stature. Ball-striking is king this week, and it’s certainly evident when considering some golfers who’ve had a lot of success here in the past, notably Viktor Hovland, Aaron Wise, and a number of others who thrive with wedges inside 150 yards.
SG: T2G (<7200 yards)
Given how significant accuracy off-the-tee is to finding success at Mayakoba, it should be no surprise that strong Tee-to-Green should be of considerable importance, particularly at courses measuring 7200 yards or shorter. Upon glancing over the field to identify golfers who should set up well this week in Riviera, being able to consistently gain strokes from tee-to-green is essential. Further, specifically looking at golfers who have great history in the past playing on paspalum grass is certainly another thing to consider upon breaking down betting markets, or rather which golfers to target in DFS.
Betting Market Outlook
Below, we'll take a look at a few golfers whom I will most definitely be targeting whilst analyzing betting markets ahead of this week’s fall-swing event in Mexico.
Collin Morikawa (+1800)
In spite of his lackluster recent form, Collin Morikawa is still one of the best golfers on the planet. When considering the aforementioned skillset to look out for when betting the ‘World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba, it’s tough to ignore Morikawa elite ball-striking and iron-play. While a number of recent PGA Tour events have called for long-hitters as an ideal stylistic attribute, accuracy and long-irons will be the difference in Mayakoba.
While on the surface it seems that Collin just hasn't been playing well for a while now, a deeper dive into his efficiency metrics reveal another story that very well may be ignored in favor of backing another one of the top golfers in this field. Moreover, while Morikawa has not had many impressive finishes thus far, he is still gaining across the board in all efficiency metrics minus strokes-gained on the greens (SG: PUTT). Over his last 16 rounds, Collin Morikawa is gaining nearly 2 strokes on average from tee-to-green (SG: T2G), which ranks fourth on the entire PGA Tour. Additionally, the two-time major championship winner is also gaining just about 0.7 strokes on average off-the-tee (SG:OTT) which ranks inside the top-20 on tour in that same time frame. While many favor Morikawa for his approach play above all else, his play off-the-tee has been incredible despite minimal data. If the 25-year-old American is able to find his putting stroke on paspalum, I certainly believe that he will be in contention on Sunday at Mayakoba, and I will be betting him three ways at DraftKings.
Wagers ⇒ Morikawa Outright (+1800), Morikawa T-10 (+195) & Morikawa T-20 (+100)
Aaron Wise (+2000)
Over the last year, Aaron Wise has been one of the more underrated players on the entire PGA Tour. Last season, Wise was extremely impressive recording four top-10 finishes, having finished inside the top-3 in two of those events. To cap off the 2021 season, Wise ranked inside the top-20 on Tour in strokes gained on Approach (SG: APP), and in the top-30 in strokes-gained off-the-tee (SG: OTT).
To begin his Fall-Swing, Wise picked up right where he left off last season, recording a sixth-place finish at the ‘CJ Cup’ in South Carolina, shooting a 66 on both Thursday and Friday. Given that Wise is an elite ball-striker with pinpoint accuracy on Approach, he certainly fits the mold of a golfer who could find success this week. However, that’s just one of the reasons I favor Wise in betting markets this week.
One of the biggest things to consider this week is course history at Mayakoba, and also at short coastal courses with similar attributes, most notably paspalum grass. Not only does Wise enter as a top-5 golfer in this field, but his course history in Riviera is phenomenal. Over his last three starts at this event, Wise has recorded a 15th, 2nd, and 10th-place finish. Given his recent form, impressive course history at this event, and elite iron-play on approach, I will definitely be targeting Aaron Wise three ways on DraftKings, as well.
Wagers ⇒ Wise Outright (+2000), Wise T-10 (+205) & Wise T-20 (+100)