If you like following trends, which if you’re here I assume you do, my three bets today are ones you should follow! Two columns ago we had a clean sweep at 3-0, and last week gave some of that back with an 0-2 day. Obviously, that means today will be another sweep, right?
Bet: Toronto Raptors Moneyline (+110) at Draft Kings. 1 unit
The New Orleans Pelicans have been one of my favorite teams to watch a quarter of the way through this NBA season. They are exciting, dynamic, and they would likely be better than their 12-8 record if it wasn’t for injuries. Zion Williamson has missed five games due to ever prevalent foot issues, and Brandon Ingram will miss his fifth straight game tonight against the Toronto Raptors with a toe injury. CJ McCollum is also questionable for tonight’s matchup after clearing health and safety protocols, but may be held out for conditioning.
Yesterday we had a small slate to work with so only one official pick went down, that pick however was a WINNER as he cash the same game parlay. Today with a much bigger slate there is an opportunity to profit with more free picks on the board with Pips. Join the episode and get involved with chat as we talk NBA and betting on Pick and Roll.
Ironically, the Pelicans play a Raptors team getting over one of the worst rash of injuries across the league. Pascal Siakam, Scottie Barnes, and Dalano Banton all returned for Toronto’s last game, a 100-88 domination of the Cleveland Cavaliers. They sported a new-look starting lineup Monday night of Fred VanVleet, Juancho Hernangomez, O.G. Anunoby, Siakam, and Thad Young with Barnes and Gary Trent Jr. coming off the bench, a lineup Head Coach Nick Nurse has said will remain unchanged versus New Orleans. I really like this combination for Toronto. Hernangomez has been much improved after a shaky start and is comfortable in his role allowing VanVleet, O.G. and Pascal to carry the offensive load. With Barnes and Trent Jr. coming off the bench, they’re better able to attack their opponents second unit and the ball sharing is much more efficient.
The Pelicans are coming off a 105-101 victory against Oklahoma City and before that, a 132-111 defeat by Memphis.
With Toronto returning to full strength and the Pelicans still trying to find their way with a roster trying to get healthy, I look for the road team to steal one tonight. The line on this game has New Orleans as 1.5 point favorites, so it makes more sense to bet the moneyline and get the plus money as opposed to the spread.
Bet: Milwaukee Bucks -5.5 (-108 at NorthStar Bets). 1 unit
Tonight we see the Eastern Conference’s second seed travel to Madison Square Garden to take on the 9-11 New York Knicks. New York played last night on the road in Detroit, absolutely dismantled the Pistons 140-110. They will see a much tougher test today in the Bucks who haven’t played since Sunday, a 124-115 win against the Mavericks.
Milwaukee is one of the better teams against the spread (ATS) this season at 12-7, while the Knicks have struggled on the lines at 8-11. The Bucks come into this game having won three of their last four games and are 4-1 ATS in both their last five road games and overall. New York, on the other hand, is 2-4 ATS in their last six contests. The visitors have also dominated the Knicks as of late going 4-0 ATS in their last four matchups and 4-1 the last five times they’ve visited MSG.
Although they are still without Kris Middleton with a wrist injury, the Bucks have been rolling over teams thanks to their fifth ranked defense (third in opponents field goal percentage). The Knicks are not known for offensive efficiency holding the 23rd ranked field goal percentage and sit 28th in three pointers. Milwaukee will simply be too much tonight, especially with the Knicks on the second half of a back-to-back.
Bet: Kevin Durant Over 35.5 Points & Assists (-115 at Points Bet). 1 unit
Our third bet today steers away from outcomes and focuses on one of the league’s premier players in Kevin Durant. His Brooklyn Nets play host to the Washington Wizards, who have been a bit of a surprise this season at 11-10. I am done betting wins and losses with Brooklyn as they remain one of the most confusing and dramatic teams in the NBA, however Durant has been as bankable as ever this year.
Over KD’s last three games his combined points and assists has been 50, 36, and 44. He’s put together a nice string of five-plus assists lately, totalling 5, 5, 8, 5, 5, and 7 across his last six games. With Ben Simmons out for tonight’s game, Durant will shoulder a bit more of the offensive load and I anticipate him finishing around 30 points, which means five to six assists will get the job done. Scoring 30 has not been a challenge, well, ever, but especially in his last three games putting up 45, 31, and 36 respectively.
Durant has seen a lot of success against the Wizards over the past two seasons averaging 29.5ppg and 7 assists. Making this line even more favorable is that Brooklyn and Washington have gone over the predicted total in four straight games with the Nets winning three of those contests. I look for a dominant performance from Durant at home tonight and scoring 30+ while also dishing out a handful of dimes to his teammates.
As always, be sure to check betstamp for the best available odds on all lines.