Are you dead set on buying picks from someone else?
Here are some tips to make sure you don't get scammed.
Starting Point
The first step in selecting a tout (someone who sells sports picks) is to find one who you believe is completely trustworthy and transparent. Obviously you will not know this individually or on a personal level, but here are a few things to look for to ensure that you are not leaving yourself open to getting scammed.
Third-Party Verification
Do not trust any individual who does not use a third-party verified platform to track their records. In this industry it is very common for touts to delete their picks and modify their records if and when they lose. Twitter, websites and shared google sheets can all be altered. This happens to be a regular occurrence in this specific space.
Even when touts are caught altering their picks, most buyers will not be aware that this has occurred. If sellers are truly reputable and have nothing to hide, there is absolutely no reason that they should not use a third-party verified platform to enhance their credibility.
Think about it this way: If you actually were a long-term winner in sports betting, wouldn't you want undisputed evidence to prove it?
Marketing: Spot the Fake
Professional sellers will always try to market their picks in a way that brings them the most buyers. For example, let's say you are interested in buying baseball picks specifically. You find a seller that claims to specialize in baseball betting. In their last 15 baseball picks, they are 6-9. Of those picks, they happen to be 4-1 in totals selections.
Instead of advertising that they are 6-9 over their last 15 picks, which isn't attractive, they will advertise that they are 4-1 in their last 5 bets involving totals.
This unfortunately is common practice. This is why it is very important that you as a buyer are able to see every selection the tout has promoted. With total transparency, you will be able to weed out the fakes. Don't fall prey to marketing tactics. If it looks too good to be true, it probably is.
Are Picks Worth Buying?
Bettors are already required to pay the vig that sportsbooks charge. If you pay for picks, this is an added cost that you must overcome to be a successful bettor. If your tout has a proven track record where he or she continues to be successful at a certain market, then there may be value in those selections, but you will need to win at a higher rate to overcome the added cost of paying for those picks.
Pick Price vs. Bet Amount
If you decide that you would like to go ahead and purchase picks, make sure the finances make sense. Do not spend $100 per week on picks, if you only risk $10 per bet. Obviously this would be a cost that you simply cannot overcome, no matter how good those picks may be. If on the other hand your average bet size is $500, then paying $50 per week for five separate NFL picks is not an egregious cost.
Advantages of Paying for Picks:
- You do not need to do any research or “homework” on a daily basis. Time savings.
- Beginners can confidently bet on sports which they might not be knowledgeable about.
- Convenience.
Disadvantages of Paying for picks:
- They cost money, and in most cases, the cost will be very difficult to overcome.
- You may be at risk of getting scammed.
- You may need to bet greater amounts to justify the cost.
- There is a very strong chance that you are better off just making selections on your own.
If you are interested in purchasing picks, check out the betstamp Marketplace, where you will find a list of sellers who have all of their picks verified by betstamp. This means that their pick records have no been manipulated in any way and you can feel comfortable doing you due diligence on the pick seller
Circles Off
If you are interested in more tips and strategies involving purchasing picks, check out Episode 37 of Circles Off with betstamp co-founder, Johnny, and betstamp co-owner, Rob Pizzola.
