Suuma's Takeaways from Week 4
By: Suuma, NFL Originator
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Misleading box scores of the week
The scoreboard tells you who won. It doesn't always tell you who played better. Each week we rebuild every game from its drives: how often a team's plays actually helped it (success rate, meaning a play that leaves the offense better placed to score than before), how far its drives got, and how much of the scoring came from bounces that rarely repeat, like turnovers, return touchdowns and short fields handed over by the other side. The result is our True Score.
One caveat before we start: this is one model among many. Others weigh these things differently and will land somewhere else. None of this changes who won. It's just a different view on how things shook out.
Cardinals 24, Giants 36 • True Score: ARI 26.9, NYG 27.4
A 12-point win that was really a coin flip, decided on the final snap. Arizona was successful on 44% of its plays; New York managed 31%. The turnovers came out even at three apiece. With 22 seconds left, the Cardinals had first and goal at the Giants' 4, down six. A touchdown and an extra point would have won it. Three incompletions later, Jacoby Brissett's fourth-down throw was picked off and returned 98 yards for a touchdown. That one play turned a likely Arizona win into a two-score Giants win. The Giants also got a touchdown out of an interception that handed them the ball at the Arizona 26. Over 60 minutes, these teams were close to dead even. The final score says otherwise because of the last 11 seconds.
Rams 24, Eagles 20 • True Score: LA 26.3, PHI 11.7
A four-point game that wasn't close. Philadelphia gained 172 yards, went O for 12 on third down and was successful on only a third of its plays. Jalen Hurts finished 12 of 27 for 93 yards, and Saquon Barkley left injured on the second drive. Even so, the Eagles led 20-10 with seven minutes left, because 17 of their 20 points started inside the Rams' 35. Two Matthew Stafford interceptions set up a field goal from the 28 and a two-play touchdown drive right before halftime. A 41-yard punt return set up another touchdown from the 17. The one long Eagles drive of the game, 62 yards, died on fourth and goal at the 2. The Rams then put together touchdown drives of 98 and 79 yards to win it. The real gap was much bigger than four.
Jaguars 22, Bengals 17 • True Score: JAX 22.0, CIN 22.8
This one could have gone either way, and the Bengals had slightly the better of it. Play for play, the two offenses were almost identical. Both teams averaged a little over six yards per snap and were successful on just under half their plays (Cincinnati 47%, Jacksonville 44%). Each converted about half its third downs (6 of 12 and 5 of 11). The difference was in the shape of the drives. Jacksonville hit more big plays, six to three. Cincinnati had to grind: its running game was successful on fewer than a quarter of its carries, so Joe Burrow threw 54 times for 428 yards.
He did it mostly without his two best receivers. Ja'Marr Chase left with a concussion early in the second quarter and didn't return. Tee Higgins carried the passing game with 11 catches for 157 yards, then hurt his adductor on a 19-yard catch with under six minutes to go. He came back briefly but wasn't targeted on the final drive.
Two Burrow throws decided it. One interception was returned 45 yards to the Cincinnati 18 and became a four-play Jaguars touchdown. The other came at the Jacksonville 10 at the start of the fourth quarter and took points off the board. Jacksonville also committed 13 penalties for 125 yards and still won. Cincinnati's last chance was fourth and 10 at the Jaguars' 21 with 56 seconds left: a 9-yard completion, one yard short. Jacksonville was the more explosive team, so this isn't a robbery. But the scoreboard picked a winner by five points in a game the field barely separated.
A weird season in Houston
I've been a big-time CJ Stroud critic on Forward Progress over the past two seasons, but I've got to give him credit: he has been playing really well this year - maybe not so much in Week 3, but the overall body of work is legit. On the season, he ranks 4th in success rate at 51.9%, trailing only Brock Purdy, Lamar Jackson and Oak Prescott. He also ranks 4th in explosive play rate. Efficient and explosive - that's the combination you want from a franchise quarterback, and it's the version of Stroud we've been waiting on since his rookie year.
The problem is that it's all on him. The Texans still cannot run the ball to save their lives, so every drive runs through No. 7's right arm. There's no easy yardage, no play-action built off a credible ground game, no margin for error.
And here's where it gets weird: the biggest issue so far hasn't been the offense at all. It's the defense - the supposed backbone of a DeMeco Ryans team - getting shredded by good passing offenses. Houston ranks 5th in dropback success rate allowed, but 27th in EPA per dropback. Translation: they win most of the routine downs and then give up the backbreakers. Big play after big play after big play.
That's showed up exactly when it hurts most. Josh Allen, Dak Prescott and even Daniel Jones, yes, the Indy game we covered last week - all orchestrated go-ahead scores late against this unit. Over the last two seasons, the formula in Houston was elite defense, shaky quarterback play. In 2026, it has flipped on its head.
Bo Nix and the Broncos offense are broken
If there was ever a spot for Denver's offense to get right, it was this one. The 49ers are decimated up front on defense, with several starters out. Bo Nix was barely under duress all afternoon - and the Broncos still couldn't move the ball.
His average depth of target was 5.3 yards. That's not an offense attacking a depleted defense; that's an offense living on checkdowns and hoping for yards after the catch. When San Francisco did send extra rushers, Nix couldn't make them pay.
That's not a one-week blip, either. On the season, he ranks bottom five among qualifying starters both against pressure and against the blitz, and the splits between clean and muddied pockets remain drastic. Defensive coordinators know it, too: if he can't beat the blitz, you keep bringing it until he proves otherwise.
The concerning part is the sequencing. If Nix can't push the ball downfield against a short-handed front that's hardly touching him, what happens when a healthy, aggressive pass rush lines up across from him? Right now, this is just not a functional offense.
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Rob and Clive's Early Leans for Week 5
DET/ARI over 53.5 -105
For a detailed breakdown of every Week 5 game watch The Sunday Reset
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Injuries We are Watching for Week 5
*Note for teams returning from bye, the list is made up of the injuries they had going into the bye week.
Arizona - TE Hunter Long (Left Game), OG Isaiah Adams (Left Game), OT Paris Johnson Jr. (Left Game), S Dadrion Taylor-Demerson (Injured Inactive), S Andrew Wingard (Left Game)
Atlanta - TBD (Playing Tonight)
Baltimore - QB Lamar Jackson (Left Game), WR Chris Moore (Injured Inactive), TE Durham Smythe (Left Game), OG Andrew Vorhees (Left Game), EDGE Trey Hendrickson (Injured Inactive), CB Marlon Humphrey (Left Game)
Buffalo - WR DJ Moore (Left Game), DT Ed Oliver (Left Game), DT T.J. Sanders (Injured Inactive), CB Christian Benford (Injured Inactive), CB Dee Alford (Left Game)
Carolina (Bye Week) - WR Jalen Coker (Injured Inactive), OG Damien Lewis (Injured Inactive), OT Monroe Freeling (Left Game), EDGE Jaelan Phillips (Left Game), DT Cam Jackson (Injured Inactive)
Chicago - QB Caleb Williams (Injured Inactive), RB Kyle Monangai (Left Game), OT Ozzy Trapilo (Ramping up Inactive), CB Cam Lewis (Injured Inactive), CB Kyler Gordon (Working back from PUP)
Cincinnati - WR Ja'Marr Chase (Left Game), WR Tee Higgins (Left Game), WR Colbie Young (Injured Inactive), DT B.J. Hill (Injured Inactive), S Bryan Cook (Injured Inactive), S Kyle Dugger (Injured Inactive)
Cleveland - C Elgton Jenkins (Injured Inactive), OG Teven Jenkins (Injured Inactive), DT Mason Graham (Left Game)
Dallas - LB DeMarvion Overshown (Injured Inactive), CB Cobie Durant (Injured Inactive)
Denver - WR Pat Bryant (Left Game/Long-Term), EDGE Dondrea Tillman (Injured Inactive), CB Patrick Surtain II (Left Game), CB Riley Moss (Left Game)
Detroit - OG Ben Bartch (Injured Inactive), CB Rock Ya-Sin (Left Game)
Green Bay - RB Chris Brooks (Left Game), C/OG Jacob Monk (Injured Inactive), OG Aaron Banks (Injured Inactive), OG Kevin Zeitler (Ramping up Inactive), DT Anthony Campbell (Injured Inactive), LB Edgerrin Cooper (Left Game/Season likely over), CB Brandon Cisse (Left Game)
Houston - LB Azeez Al-Shaair (Injured Inactive), CB Jaylin Smith (Left Game)
Indianapolis - WR Keenan Allen (Injured Inactive), EDGE Arden Key (Left Game)
Jacksonville - CB Montaric Brown (Injured Inactive), S Eric Murray (Left Game), S Caleb Ransaw (Left Game)
Kansas City (Bye Week) - WR Rashee Rice (Left Game), WR Tyquan Thornton (Left Game/Long-Term), OT Josh Simmons (Injured Inactive)
Las Vegas - WR Jalen Nailor (Left Game), OG Jackson Powers-Johnson (Injured Inactive)
L.A Chargers - WR Ladd McConkey (Left Game), WR Brenen Thompson (Injured Inactive), TE Charlie Kolar (Injured Inactive), OG Kayode Awosika (Injured Inactive), OG Trevor Penning (Left Game), OT Joe Alt (Left Game), OT Rashawn Slater (Left Game), DT Dalvin Tomlinson (Injured Inactive), CB Donte Jackson (Left Game), S Derwin James Jr. (Injured Inactive)
L.A Rams - WR Konata Mumpfield (Left Game), TE Colby Parkinson (Injured Inactive), DT Aaron Donald (Injured Inactive), CB Jaylen Watson (Injured Inactive)
Miami - WR Caleb Douglas (Injured Inactive), EDGE Robert Beal Jr. (Injured Inactive)
Minnesota - WR Justin Jefferson (Injured Inactive), OG Donovan Jackson (Left Game), OT Christian Darrisaw (Left Game)
New England - WR Mack Hollins (Left Game), TE Eli Raridon (Left Game), DT Christian Barmore (Injured Inactive), CB Christian Gonzalez (Injured Inactive), CB Channing Canada (Injured Inactive)
New Orleans - TBD (Playing Tonight)
New York Giants - WR Braxton Berrios (Left Game), DT Chauncey Golston (Left Game), S Jason Pinnock (Left Game)
New York Jets - RB Breece Hall (Injured Inactive), WR Adonai Mitchell (Injured Inactive), TE Mason Taylor (Injured Inactive), OG Dylan Parham (Injured Inactive), EDGE Kingsley Enagbare (Injured Inactive), EDGE Braiden McGregor (Left Game), CB Jarvis Brownlee (Left Game)
Philadelphia - RB Saquon Barkley (Left Game), WR DeVonta Smith (Injured Inactive), WR Hollywood Brown (Injured Inactive), TE Dallas Goedart (Injured Inactive), OT Lane Johnson (Personal Inactive), EDGE Jonathan Greenard (Left Game), LB Zack Baun (Injured Inactive), CB Quinyon Mitchell (Left Game), S Marcus Epps (Injured Inactive)
Pittsburgh - RB Rico Dowdle (Injured Inactive), CB Jamel Dean (Left Game), DT Derrick Harmon (Left Game)
San Francisco - FB Kyle Juszczyk (Left Game), EDGE Nick Bosa (Injured Inactive), DT James Thompson Jr. (Injured Inactive), CB Upton Stout (Left Game), EDGE Mykel Williams (Working back from PUP)
Seattle - DT Leonard Williams (Left Game), S Ty Okada (Injured Inactive), RB Zach Charbonnet (Working back from PUP)
Tampa Bay - QB Baker Mayfield (Injured Inactive), TE Ko Kieft (Injured Inactive), EDGE Rueben Bain Jr. (Injured Inactive), LB SirVocea Dennis (Left Game), CB Benjamin Morrison (Injured Inactive), S Antoine Winfield Jr. (Left Game)
Tennessee - Nothing of note
Washington - QB Jayden Daniels (Injured Inactive), QB Marcus Mariota (Left Game), RB Rachaad White (Injured Inactive), WR Terry McLaurin (Injured Inactive), WR Jaylin Lane (Left Game/Season likely over), OG Samuel Cosmi (Injured Inactive), EDGE Charles Omenihu (Left Game), S Nick Cross (Injured Inactive), S Jeremy Reaves (Left Game), S Tyler Owens (Left Game)
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CFB Risers & Fallers
By: Brad Powers, Co-Host of Hit The Books
You can Follow Brad Powers on Twitter/X
Biggest Upgrades from Last Week:
Northwestern +2.5 points
Northwestern upset Penn State 34-13 as 3-point underdogs in their first game at their new stadium. With new offensive coordinator Chip Kelly using a wide variety of formations, Northwestern ran for 413 yards. They allowed just 48 rushing yards and dominated the line of scrimmage. The Wildcats have now covered all four games this season by an average of 17.8 points per game.
Missouri +2.5 points
Missouri upset No. 8 Florida 45-17 as 5.5-point underdogs. The game was tied 10-10 late in the first half but Missouri would go out-score the Gators 35-0 in the next 21 minutes. Missouri out-gained Florida by 235 yards. Florida came into the game averaging 533 yards of offense per game but Missouri held them to 325.
Wake Forest +2.5 points
Fresh off an upset over Louisville as double-digit underdogs, Wake Forest was even more impressive last week. They beat Stanford 57-3 covering the spread by 39.5 points. It was their largest margin of victory ever in an ACC game. Wake has now covered their last three games by an average of 20.2 points per game. My power ratings project them to be favored in six of their last seven games.
Biggest Downgrades from Last Week:
Pittsburgh -4.0 points
Pittsburgh beat Virginia Tech 35-33 as 1-point underdogs. However, they lost starting QB Mason Heintschel for the season to injury. His backup Holden Geriner is a major downgrade with limited career experience. In addition, Pitt should have lost to Virginia Tech as they were out-gained by 204 yards. They benefitted from a plus-four turnover margin and a missed Virginia Tech field goal on the final play.
San Diego State -3.5 points
San Diego State upset Texas State 31-29 as 10-point underdogs. Yet, I downgraded them significantly in my power ratings. First, it was the most misleading final of last weekend. San Diego State was out-gained by 326 yards! They got a 96-yard kickoff return touchdown and a 32-yard interception return touchdown in the second half. More importantly, San Diego State was missing 13 players due to a mumps outbreak within the program and their top two running backs were out due to injury.
Virginia -3.0 points
Virginia was destroyed by Florida State 38-7. There was nothing fluky in the result as the Cavaliers were out-gained by 259 yards and were dominated at the line of scrimmage getting out-rushed 281-37. Quarterback Beau Pribula did not look healthy with only a 13.8 QBR. In addition, the market went from Virginia -2.5 to pick late in the week indicating the more sophisticated money was against them.
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Bet from Hitman
Jacksonville -4.5 -115 at FanDuel
If the Eagles' injury situation is as bad as I anticipate, I made this line a shade below 7.
You can Follow Hitman on Twitter/X
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