Suuma's Takeaways from Week 5
By: Suuma, NFL Originator
You can Follow Suuma on Twitter/X
Misleading scores of the week
True Score rebuilds each team's score from what its drives actually produced: field position, successful plays, turnovers forced and given. It never looks at the real points. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, the scoreboard is usually the one lying.
No game had the wrong winner by True Score this week. Since 2006, that happens in about 15% of games, or roughly two a week. A few final scores still told the wrong story, though.
49ers 32, Seahawks 29 · True Score: SF 35.4, SEA 17.2
This is the biggest gap between score and True Score this season (15.2 points), and only about 2% of games since 2006 have one that large. The three-point road win was really a beating.
Neither offense was good. San Francisco managed −0.14 EPA per play and a 44% success rate. Seattle was much worse: −0.43 EPA per play and a 30% success rate, with the run game at −0.56 EPA per carry. The Seahawks went 3-for-12 on third down, and Sam Darnold was sacked five times and threw two interceptions.
The real difference was where Seattle gave the ball away. Three of their four giveaways came inside their own 11:
-an interception at the 11, after which San Francisco scored from the 18,
-a fumble at the 9, after which the Niners scored on the very next play,
-a fumble at their own 4, returned for a touchdown 18 seconds before halftime.
That's 21 San Francisco points on 29 yards. Seattle only stayed close by going 5-for-5 on field goals and scoring 10 points off short fields from two 49ers turnovers.
Browns 12, Jets 17 · True Score: CLE 8.3, NYJ 26.2
The Jets won this one down after down. They posted a 39% success rate to Cleveland's 25%, sacked Deshaun Watson eight times and held the Browns to 2.9 yards per play and 4-of-17 on third down. Cleveland's 44 dropbacks produced −0.24 EPA each; their 25 runs averaged 2.4 yards.
New York wasn't good either. Geno Smith finished at −0.25 EPA per dropback, and the Jets made it far harder than it had to be: a fumble at the Cleveland 11, 0-for-2 in the red zone, and no touchdown between their opening drive and the final four minutes. Cleveland's only touchdown came on one 86-yard drive late in the game. Before that, the Browns had two field goals and nine punts.
Bengals 31, Dolphins 24 · True Score: CIN 36.3, MIA 21.2
Joe Burrow went 23-of-32 with four touchdowns, 0.29 EPA per dropback and a 61% success rate. Cincinnati's offense had a 56% success rate overall and was never really stopped: its first five drives produced four touchdowns and a fumble at the Miami 10.
Miami lived on big plays, nine explosives to Cincinnati's three. In between, the Dolphins managed a 47% success rate and −0.15 EPA per dropback, with two Malik Willis interceptions. The seven-point final margin is a garbage-time product: Miami's last two touchdowns, 14 of its 24 points, came after its win probability had already dropped to 2%.
Ravens 30, Falcons 23 (OT) · True Score: BAL 28.2, ATL 16.2
With Tyler Huntley at quarterback, Baltimore got the ball down 23-15 with 2:25 left and a 6% win probability, tied it with a touchdown and a two-point conversion, and won in overtime.
It never should have been that close. The Ravens ran the ball well: 0.23 EPA per carry, a 47% success rate and 5.8 yards per carry. Atlanta's run game was dead on arrival: a 21% success rate and −0.24 EPA per carry. Michael Penix moved the ball through the air (7.6 yards per dropback, six plays of 20+ yards), but the Falcons' offense still produced only one touchdown and three field goals. Seven of their points came on a fumble return.
Baltimore hurt itself as well. It reached the Atlanta 1 on its opening drive and settled for a field goal, and its fourth-down decisions cost about 7 percentage points of win probability.
Giants 27, Commanders 27 (OT) · True Score: NYG 28.9, WAS 25.1
The tie belongs to the Giants, but on volume rather than efficiency. New York ran 88 plays to Washington's 61 and had 40 successful plays to 26. Per snap, though, Washington was better: 9.2 yards per dropback and seven gains of 20+ yards against four. Jameis Winston threw 54 times for 326 yards and three touchdowns.
What kept the G-Men from winning were three missed field goals (2-for-5 on the day), one of them in overtime, plus a fumble at the Washington 24 on their last OT possession.
Quick hits
-Buccaneers 24, Cowboys 16. About right (True Score 23.9–20.6). Tampa Bay was at +0.15 EPA per play against Dallas's −0.03, and the Cowboys gave it away three times.
-Jaguars 19, Eagles 17. Not as close as two points (True Score 20.8–14.2). Philadelphia had a 34% success rate, and its run game produced 1.0 yard per carry.
-Vikings 23, Saints 13. Minnesota was better than the 10-point margin suggests (True Score 28.5–14.7). New Orleans ran 45 plays at 3.2 yards each.
-Lions 45, Cardinals 21. Closer than the score (True Score 38.7–19.6), but Detroit still clearly deserved it.
Broncos 23, Chargers 17: the race to the bottom
This week's AFC West clash between two struggling offenses was exactly as ugly as it sounded on paper. Combined, the two offenses produced −0.34 EPA per play and 3.9 yards per play. That's the worst game of 2026 so far, and only 51 of 5,509 games since 2006 were worse — the bottom 1%. Denver went 1-for-12 on third down. The Chargers had a 27% success rate and gave it away three times. Only Seattle had a worse offensive day this week.
Denver: no deep threat
We talked about Bo Nix's issues last week, and nothing has changed. The frustrating part is that the infrastructure around him is fine. Denver's line protects well — its 3.4% sack rate is third-best in the league — and the run game holds up (10th in EPA per carry). The problem is that the passing game never pushes the ball downfield:
-Nix's average depth of target is 5.8 yards, the shortest of the 34 quarterbacks with at least 60 plays. He also averages just 5.8 yards per attempt.
-Only 8.2% of Denver's plays gain 10+ yards on the ground or 20+ through the air, 31st in the league. Adding Jaylen Waddle hasn't changed that.
-The Broncos rank 28th on third down (34%) and 28th in yards per play (4.8).
-Overall, they're 26th in EPA per play (−0.08), averaging 19.4 points with a True Score of 18.5 (27th).
Last year, Denver ranked 10th in EPA per play and scored 23.6 points a game. This season, it has had exactly one good week (Jacksonville, 7.1 yards per play), and even the 30-point outing against the Rams got some help: True Score has that one at 25.
Chargers: the worst offense in football, and running out of bodies
We put the Bolts on the Cooked List back in Week 2. It has only gotten worse since. By the numbers, the Chargers have the worst offense in the league:
-32nd in EPA per play (−0.20) and 32nd in EPA per dropback (−0.21)
-31st in points per drive (1.40) and in Drive Quality per drive
-29th in success rate (38.0%)
-32nd in offensive DVOA through Week 4 (−25.4%)
-16.8 points per game
They haven't ranked better than 21st in any single week. Justin Herbert sits at −0.19 EPA per play with seven interceptions, 17 sacks and a completion rate 4.5 points below expectation. His DVOA (−30.5%) ranks 29th of 32. The offense has given the ball away 13 times in five games.
Much of that is the offensive line, or what's left of it. Against Denver, four of the five projected starters were out:
-Tyler Biadasz (C) suffered a season-ending injury in training camp. Jake Slaughter has played every snap in his place.
-Trey Pipkins (LG) went down with a knee injury after 36% of the snaps in the opener and has been on IR since Week 3.
-Rashawn Slater (LT) played every snap of the first three games, got hurt in Week 4 and is now on IR (ankle).
-Joe Alt (RT) left the Seattle game after 37% of the snaps and was out against Denver (neck).
The replacements haven't held up either. Kayode Awosika, who took over at left guard, has missed three straight games with a fibula injury. Trevor Penning, who played every snap in Week 3, has been on IR since Week 5 (concussion). Cole Strange is the only projected opening-day starter still standing. Herbert's 9.7% sack rate ranks 31st.
The pass catchers aren't much better off. David Njoku, signed in the offseason, has been on IR since Week 3. Charlie Kolar missed Weeks 3 and 4 with a forearm injury. Quentin Johnston, who had played 75–87% of the snaps, sat out against Denver (chest). Ladd McConkey didn't practice all week with a foot injury, was activated anyway and was effectively a no-show: not a single target.
Even before the injuries, this wasn't a good offense — 24th in EPA per play last season. But a unit that loses four of its five starting linemen, both backups who replaced them and most of its top pass catchers has no path to getting better. Still cooked.
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Rob and Clive's Early Leans for Week 6
DEN/SEA u42.5 -110
NO +100 ML
DAL +100 ML
For a detailed breakdown of every Week 6 game watch The Sunday Reset
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Injuries We are Watching for Week 6
*Note for teams returning from bye, the list is made up of the injuries they had going into the bye week.
Arizona - S Andrew Wingard (Injured Inactive)
Atlanta - QB Michael Penix Jr. (Left Game), EDGE Za'Darius Smith (Injured Inactive), CB C.J. Henderson (Left Game)
Baltimore - QB Lamar Jackson (Injured Inactive), C Cam Jurgens (Injured Inactive), OG Andrew Vorhees (Injured Inactive), EDGE Trey Hendrickson (Injured Inactive)
Buffalo - TBD (Playing Tonight)
Carolina (Returning from Bye) - WR Jalen Coker, OG Damien Lewis, OT Monroe Freeling, EDGE Jaelan Phillips, DT Cam Jackson
Chicago - QB Caleb Williams (Injured Inactive), RB Kyle Monangai (Injured Inactive), EDGE Dayo Odeyingbo (Left Game), LB T.J. Edwards (Left Game), CB Tyrique Stevenson (Left Game), S Cam Lewis (Left Game), CB Kyler Gordon (Working back from PUP)
Cincinnati (Bye Week) - WR Colbie Young (Injured Inactive), S Kyle Dugger (Injured Inactive)
Cleveland - RB Quinshon Judkins (Left Stadium in Walking Boot), WR KC Concepcion (Left Game), OG Teven Jenkins (Injured Inactive), OT Tytus Howard (Left Game), DT Mason Graham (Injured Inactive), DT Michael Hall Jr. (Injured Inactive), LB Carson Schwesinger (Left Stadium in Walking Boot)
Dallas - WR CeeDee Lamb (Left Game), OT Tyler Guyton (Left Game), LB DeMarvion Overshown (Injured Inactive), LB Jaishawn Barham (Left Game), CB Joey Porter Jr. (Sick Inactive), CB Cobie Durant (Injured Inactive), S Alijah Clark (Left Game)
Denver - CB Patrick Surtain II (Injured Inactive), CB Riley Moss (Injured Inactive), S Talanoa Hufanga (Left Game)
Detroit (Bye Week) - OG Ben Bartch (Injured Inactive), CB Rock Ya-Sin (Injured Inactive), C Cade Mays (Working back from I.R.), S Brian Branch (Working back from PUP)
Green Bay - WR Skyy Moore (Left Game), C/OG Jacob Monk (Injured Inactive), OG Aaron Banks (Injured Inactive), DT Javon Hargrave (Left Game/Season Over), DT Anthony Campbell (Injured Inactive)
Houston - RB David Montgomery (Left Game), S Jalen Pitre (Left Game), WR Tank Dell (Working back from PUP), OT Braden Smith (Working back from I.R.)
Indianapolis - WR Ashton Dulin (Injured Inactive), WR Darius Slayton (Injured Inactive)
Jacksonville - OT Anton Harrison (Left Game/Carted Off), CB Montaric Brown (Left Game), S Eric Murray (Injured Inactive)
Kansas City (Returning from Bye) - WR Rashee Rice, OT Josh Simmons
Las Vegas - WR Jalen Nailor (Injured Inactive), OG Trey Zuhn (Injured Inactive), DT Tonka Hemingway (Left Game), WR Dont'e Thornton Jr. (Working back from I.R.)
L.A Chargers - WR Quentin Johnston (Injured Inactive), WR Tre Harris (Left Game), WR Brenen Thompson (Injured Inactive), OG Kayode Awosika (Injured Inactive), OT Joe Alt (Injured Inactive), CB Donte Jackson (Injured Inactive), S Derwin James Jr. (Injured Inactive)
L.A Rams - TBD (Playing Tonight)
Miami (Bye Week) - WR Caleb Douglas (Injured Inactive), OG Jonah Savaiinaea (Left Game), EDGE Robert Beal Jr. (Injured Inactive), CB JuJu Brents (Left Game)
Minnesota (Bye Week) - WR Jordan Addison (Injured Inactive), TE T.J. Hockenson (Left Game), OT Christian Darrisaw (Injured Inactive)
New England - RB TreVeyon Henderson (Left Game), OT Will Campbell (Left Game/Will Miss Time), EDGE Dre'Mont Jones (Left Game), CB Christian Gonzalez (Injured Inactive), CB Carlton Davis (Injured Inactive), CB Channing Canada (Injured Inactive), CB Karon Prunty (Injured Inactive)
New Orleans - EDGE Anfernee Jennings (Injured Inactive), DT Nathan Sheperd (Sick Inactive), DT Vernon Broughton (Sick Inactive), LB Kaden Elliss (Injured Inactive)
New York Giants - OT Jermaine Eluemunor (Left Game), S Jason Pinnock (Injured Inactive)
New York Jets - RB Breece Hall (Injured Inactive), WR Adonai Mitchell (Injured Inactive), TE Kenyon Sadiq (Left Game), OG Dylan Parham (Injured Inactive), EDGE Joseph Ossai (Left Game)
Philadelphia - RB Saquon Barkley (Injured Inactive), RB Will Shipley (Left Game/Multiple Weeks), WR DeVonta Smith (Injured Inactive), WR Hollywood Brown (Injured Inactive), C Drew Kendall (Injured Inactive), OG Tyler Steen (Left Game), EDGE Jonathan Greenard (Injured Inactive), EDGE Jalyx Hunt (Left Game), S Marcus Epps (Injured Inactive), S Michael Carter II (Left Game)
Pittsburgh - RB Rico Dowdle (Injured Inactive), WR Roman Wilson (Left Game/Multiple Weeks), WR Ben Skowronek (Left Game), CB Jamel Dean (Injured Inactive), S DeShon Elliott (Working back from I.R.)
San Francisco - FB Kyle Juszczyk (Injured Inactive), WR Deebo Samuel (Left Game), EDGE Nick Bosa (Injured Inactive), DT James Thompson Jr. (Injured Inactive)
Seattle - LB Drake Thomas (Left Game), RB Zach Charbonnet (Working back from PUP)
Tampa Bay - QB Baker Mayfield (Injured Inactive), LB SirVocea Dennis (Injured Inactive), CB Benjamin Morrison (Injured Inactive), S Antoine Winfield Jr. (Injured Inactive)
Tennessee - CB Cor'Dale Flott (Left Game), S Amani Hooker (Injured Inactive), S Kevin Winston Jr. (Left Game), CB Joshua Williams (Working back from I.R.)
Washington - QB Marcus Mariota (Injured Inactive), WR Stefon Diggs (Injured Inactive), EDGE Charles Omenihu (Injured Inactive), S Nick Cross (Injured Inactive), S Tyler Owens (Injured Inactive), S Percy Butler (Injured Inactive), CB Trey Amos (Working back from I.R.)
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CFB Risers & Fallers
By: Brad Powers, Co-Host of Hit The Books
You can Follow Brad Powers on Twitter/X
Biggest Upgrades from Last Week:
Oregon State +3.0 points
Oregon State is the only team in the country that is 6-0 ATS. More impressively, the Beavers have covered those games by an average of 19.3 points per game. Is the market catching up? Not yet as the Oregon State crushed San Diego State 66-14 last Saturday covering by 37.5 points. Oregon State had a dominant 651-147 yard edge. Fan Duel opened up Oregon State -13.5 vs Washington State this week. The line is now 18.5.
Purdue +3.0 points
After losing 19 straight Big Ten games, Purdue has now won two straight. Last Saturday, Purdue crushed Minnesota 41-13 as 2.5-point home underdogs. The Boilermakers dominated the line of scrimmage with a 305-27 rushing yard advantage. Purdue's win total was as low as 2.5 in some sportsbooks this summer and they have already topped it. This week Purdue is favored by 3.5 over Washington. It is their largest favorite role in any Big Ten game in three years.
Buffalo +3.0 points
Pay attention to the market late in the week when limits open up. Buffalo has taken late week money in each of the last two weeks. They almost upset Western Michigan as a 2-TD underdog two weeks ago. Then in a Saturday full of upsets, Buffalo pulled the biggest shocker beating Toledo 23-8 as 18.5-point underdogs last Saturday. Buffalo was plus-three in turnovers but also had a 351-308 yard edge and led 13-0 at halftime.
Biggest Downgrades from Last Week:
Oregon -3.0 points
Oregon lost outright to UCLA as 10-point home favorites on Saturday. The Ducks were out-gained 345-272 and had seven turnovers. Backup quarterback Dylan Raiola had the worst single-game QB performance using EPA per dropback in the last three years in any college football game. Before the season, Oregon was -300 to make the college football playoff, now they are +550 at Fan Duel.
Washington -3.0 points
Washington had Iowa in the perfect scheduling spot last Friday. The Huskies were catching the Hawkeyes off emotional games vs Michigan and Ohio State. Iowa was traveling across the country on one day less rest. In addition, Iowa was missing their starting quarterback. Washington would get crushed 41-24 as 3-point home favorites in a game that was more lopsided than the final. Washington trailed 27-0 and were out-rushed 263 to minus-3!
Toledo -3.0 points
For the first five games of the season, Toledo was the best team in the MAC with a 4-1 record. My power ratings projected them to be favored in their final seven games and I thought they were a shoo-in to make the MAC Championship game. Toledo would go on to lose 23-8 to Buffalo as 18.5-point favorites last Saturday. It was the biggest upset in any college football game the last four weeks.
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